Enemy of my enemy: who Trump supports in Europe
Donald Trump's team has launched an active European policy without waiting for his leader to officially take office. Members of the future administration and conservative opinion leaders are speaking out, making statements and meeting with allies on the continent. All this cannot but irritate Brussels and European political elites, which, on the one hand, are preparing for major changes in bilateral relations, on the other hand, are themselves making attempts to build bridges with the U.S. president-elect. Izvestia tells us who Trump is supporting in Europe and what goals he is setting for himself.
Great Britain
The main European ally of the United States is going through a crisis and transformation of political elites. During the incomplete six months of Labor's stay in power, its ratings have fallen to their lowest values since the end of World War II. After winning the election in July 2024, they enjoyed the support of 44% of voters. By the end of December, that figure stood at 26.6%, according to Sky. Traditionally, the scales should have tipped in the direction of the Conservative Party, but it is hardly doing any better.
Against this background, we can clearly see a sharp rise in the popularity of the Reform Party under the leadership of Nigel Farage, who has returned to politics. The number of its registered members has already surpassed the number of Conservatives, showing an increase of 300% in six months. And this trend, as analysts believe, will continue.
Trumpists, whom Farage supported in the presidential campaign in the United States, intend to play a significant role in the triumph of the "new conservatives". On December 16, at Trump's residence in Mar-a-Lago, the parties agreed to jointly coordinate actions. As a result of this meeting, it was reported that Ilon Musk, who attended the meeting, together with British billionaire and recent sponsor of the Conservatives Nick Candy, may allocate $100 million to the Reform Party - by British standards, absolutely incredible money for political activity.
The British press writes that if early parliamentary elections were held right now, the Reform Party would win 100-150 seats, and therefore urges Prime Minister Keir Starmer not to initiate them in any case.
Germany
Amid the collapse of the "traffic light" coalition news of early elections on February 23 and the start of the campaign, Musk again did what Trump cannot afford to do. He openly declared his support for Alternative for Germany, writing on his social media that it was the only political force capable of saving the country. Earlier, after the terrorist attack in Magdeburg, the billionaire called still German Chancellor Olaf Scholz an "incompetent moron" and called for his immediate resignation.
According to European media reports, Musk's tweets have had the maximum possible effect on the European bureaucracy, which is now hatching a plan for "revenge." As for the AdG, it continues to gradually gain even more popularity, although the growth has slowed down considerably recently. According to various reports, the right-wing party may take from 19 to 21% of the vote in the upcoming elections. This, however, does not mean that they will finally gain real leverage over German politics.
Moreover, as Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations, emphasizes, "verbal interventions" from across the ocean will not be enough to break down the political and media isolation zone built around the Alternative (the so-called firewall).
- First of all, it is not only the AdG that is establishing relations with the Trumpists. There are people within other political forces who have points of contact with the new American power, so here too the AdG exists in a competitive environment. Of course, we see words of support from Musk. But still, so far it has been quite successful in restraining the Alternative. The firewall works. It will be broken if the AdG is monolithic, consistent and not contradictory in its actions. The external factor is certainly important, but it does not have a decisive influence on the development of this process," the expert concludes.
France
A natural ally of Trump in this country looks like the "National Rally" of Jordaan Bardell and Marine Le Pen. After the election of the Republican in 2016, it seemed that this alliance would take place. However, the blatantly dismissive strategy chosen by Trump towards Paris has alienated the French right-wing. Now, against the backdrop of the US president-elect's harsh statements to allies and intentions regarding European industry, Le Pen's alliance with him is more harmful than useful, according to Pavel Timofeev, head of the regional problems and conflicts sector at the Primakov IMEMO.
Jordane Bardella and Marine Le Pen
Le Pen had already supported Trump during his first term, but she did not benefit from it. Trump has shocked and frightened rather than inspired. The majority of French people had no sympathy for him, and many breathed a sigh of relief when Biden came to power in 2020, the expert explains. Within the current electorate of the "National Union" sympathizers of the Democrats, strangely enough, more.
- But more importantly, the essence of Le Pen's policy is to change the image of the party - to move from radical to traditional conservative. In this respect, supporting Trump, who is portrayed as a radical populist, carries a lot of risks, because then you will have to explain yourself on a number of controversial decisions of Trump, including with regard to Europe. Le Pen, who has already been labeled a "Kremlin agent" enough, will in any case have to correlate her policies with the actions of the European political elite, which means that supporting Trump, who often goes against the European strategy, may play against her. It should not be forgotten that Le Pen is now under investigation, which could lead to a ban from participating in the next presidential election. In this context, she needs to be all the more careful in her statements," the Izvestia interlocutor noted.
What's next
Meanwhile, as the events in Romania show, the Trumpists' longstanding, though not always successful, efforts to form a right-conservative alliance have borne fruit. This applies both to Eastern Europe (Hungary, Slovakia, Georgia) and Western Europe. However, the future of the European Union in the light of such trends does not worry Trump much. Moreover, the weakness of the EU in this sense will only increase, admits Timofei Bordachev, program director of the Valdai Club.
- No one doubts that the EU has lost any possibility of freedom of action in foreign economic and foreign policy relations. The question now is how the new American authorities will structure and formalize this subordination of the Europeans. The Democrats' soft point was to influence policy through agents of influence (or directly recruited by intelligence agencies) linked to American corporate business. I get the impression that Trump is set on a tougher style of communication. Now he is looking at the fuss being made about it," the expert points out.
The presence of strong national leaders will work in the conditions of a common enemy in the face of the European bureaucracy. This circumstance, however, does not guarantee unanimity in resolving a number of intra-European issues, which will only become more acute in the conditions of the economic crisis. However, as Timofei Bordachev recognizes, the United States has nothing to lose from this. Moreover, through the system of political and military control built after World War II, they continue to manage the situation on the continent.
- Germany is de facto under occupation after 1945. Britain is politically absolutely not independent and is in this sense part of the USA. France remains alone. The Americans are now confident that regardless of the future of the EU they will control most of the continent. They assume that Europe is completely crushed, and it is hard to disagree with them. If the supported forces start to conflict at some point, nothing terrible will happen for the US. It should be taken into account that Washington, thanks to NATO and the presence of its military, continues to fully control strategic defense planning," Bordachev reminds.
