Voter Verification: How the Presidential Election Will Be Held in Belarus
Presidential elections will be held in Belarus on January 26. Alexander Lukashenko is the favorite, he will be opposed by four candidates. At the same time, the situation in the country and beyond its borders remains nervous, law enforcers are preparing for mass riots. The U.S. State Department urged American citizens to leave the republic. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Lukashenko emphasizes the economy and peaceful skies
The CEC of Belarus registered five candidates for the presidential election. The main one is the incumbent head of state Alexander Lukashenko, who is running for his seventh term. According to the election commission, he managed to collect 2.5 million signatures (the population of the country - 9.1 million). Signature collection lasted a month, which means that almost 100 thousand Belarusians supported his nomination every day.
President of Belarus Alexander Lukashenko
Lukashenko actually started his election campaign in the fall. Since late September, he began to actively travel around the regions, communicating with agrarians, students, workers and other groups of voters. "Remember: at the dawn of our youth there was nothing to eat. Only coupons were enough, but you couldn't buy everything with them. Today we supply products to more than 100 countries. You did it! I have to thank you, that's why I visit every region," he explained during one of the meetings in Minsk voblast.
Lukashenko's hand in this campaign is rather rapid development of the Belarusian economy. According to the data of "Belstat," the country's GDP grew by 3.9% in January-November. Real wages in October were 13% higher than a year earlier, inflation - 5.5%, the unemployment rate - at a record low of 3%. Analysts of the Eurasian Development Bank (EDB) call high demand for Belarusian products in Russia the reason for economic growth.
In addition, Lukashenko regularly emphasizes the fact that the country manages to maintain peace, this topic is especially relevant in connection with the armed conflict in Ukraine. "Modern Belarusians are lucky to be born and live under a clear sky. But you and I, as people of the military, know well that life without war is the result of painstaking daily work. The threat of a new global conflict has never been so close as it is today," he said during the ceremony of presenting general's epaulettes to the top officers.
It is difficult to predict Lukashenko's exact outcome in this election, as there are no polls on the popularity of any politician in the country. In November, however, the analytical center EcooM conducted a study, which revealed that 80.4% of Belarusians trust the president. In addition, earlier Lukashenko himself said that his course in the country is unambiguously supported by at least 80%, while the remaining 20% fluctuate, "it's still possible to fight for them". Finally, at the last election in 2020, the Belarusian ruler received 80.1%. Now, obviously, the result will be no worse.
Competitors praise the president
The other four candidates look like mere statisticians. All of them have collected a little more than 100 thousand signatures, which are necessary for registration, all of them declare their support for Lukashenko, three of them represent various pro-governmental parties. Perhaps the most prominent among the candidates is the leader of the Liberal Democratic Party, member of the House of Representatives Oleg Gaidukevich.
He regularly appears on Belarusian television criticizing Lithuania, Poland and the West in general, while never tiring to confess his warm feelings for the Belarusian leader. "I sometimes hear that Lukashenko is cautious. I'll answer it simply: he's not cautious, but smart! The most important value for him is Belarusians, our children, grandparents. It's important for him that we don't receive a single summons, that someone has died. He's not afraid to defend the country - he protects it just like that," said Haidukevich on TV.
Another candidate is Anna Kanopatskaya. She started her political career as an opposition activist. In 2016, she was elected to the House of Representatives, then it was considered a sign of political thaw in Belarus. In 2019-2020,she moved to the side of the authorities and began to fiercely criticize opponents of Lukashenko. Thus, she called Svetlana Tikhanovskaya a project of the Belarusian special services, which is needed to identify the protest electorate, and also hinted at Tikhanovskaya's close connection with blogger Roman Protasevich.
The other two candidates - Communist Party leader Siarhei Syrankou and Republican Party leader Aliaksandr Khizhnyak - are even less known. Apparently, they are using the elections to somehow be remembered by the voters. Under such conditions, it seems that the electoral procedure will be as calm as possible: there will be one undisputed favorite and several other candidates on the ballot.
In Minsk, they are preparing for riots
Minsk, however, is as serious as possible. The authorities believe that the threat comes both from the opposition, settled in the West, and directly from NATO countries. "We are very concerned about the situation in Western Europe, especially on our borders from Poland and Lithuania. We assess this danger even more than from the warring Ukraine. Not only Poles and Lithuanians are deployed within 15 kilometers - it's a short walk to the border - but also the armed forces of other countries, including Germany," Lukashenko said in early December.
In turn, the state secretary of the country's Security Council, Alexander Wolfovich, says that the authorities are also taking into account the Syrian experience. "We see what served as a trigger for the events in Syria. This is the creation of mass unrest, and on their background an armed conflict. We are ready to respond to various insinuations, violations, provocations," he notes. According to Wolfowicz, the formation of the Belarusian opposition fighting groups on the neighboring territory, as well as the build-up of military groups of Western countries are also causing concern.
It is known that in late November, special forces of the Interior Ministry of the country held a series of exercises. One part of maneuvers concerned incidents directly at polling stations: law enforcers practiced their actions in case of hostage-taking, an attempt to storm the polling station, an attempt to attack members of the election commission. The second part concerned street riots. Judging by the photos, policemen in full equipment practiced the use of water cannons against the crowd with flags, the situation from the air was monitored with the help of drones.
Much is also being done to strengthen the country's defense capabilities. In early December, Russia and Belarus signed a treaty on mutual security guarantees, the document refers to the joint defense of the territory and borders of the Union State. In addition, the parties agreed that in 2025, Belarus will deploy the "Oreshnik" complex. At the same time, ballistic missiles will be part of the Russian Strategic Missile Forces, but Minsk will determine the targets. "Together we will press the button if, God forbid, it is needed," Lukashenko noted.
What experts say
Kirill Koktysh, professor of the Department of Political Theory at MGIMO, believes that the Belarusian elections will be generally calm.
- I don't see any threats inside the country, the current authorities are in full control of the situation. Problems are possible on the external contour, although I don't expect anything serious there, as the republic is under the reliable protection of the Russian nuclear umbrella. Nevertheless, I admit some sort of attacks. I think the most likely scenario is some localized provocations in the border area. At the same time, I believe that the Belarusian authorities will confidently cope with the threats," he says.
Deputy Director of the Institute of History and Politics of the Moscow State University Vladimir Shapovalov says that the Belarusian authorities will be able to successfully hold the elections.
- We can't rule out that we'll see attempts to interfere in the Belarusian domestic political processes. Rallies, riots, attempts towards a color revolution and coup d'état are quite possible. For this purpose, nationalist fighters, who are currently concentrated in Ukraine, Poland and Lithuania, may be used. I think they will try to somehow transfer them to the territory of the country before the elections. I'm sure that the Belarusian authorities will have enough competence to resist all this," he concluded.
