Completely out of place: to which country discussions on the Transcaucasus may be moved

Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia have not yet reached a consensus with other participants regarding the location for the Geneva discussions, the Russian Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. At the same time, it is possible that Serbia, Azerbaijan or the UAE could host them, Deputy Speaker of the Council of the Russian Federation Konstantin Kosachev told Izvestia. Moscow, Sukhum and Tskhinval are in favor of unconditional preservation of the format, which allows minimizing the risks of escalation. At the same time, the expert community doubts that Tbilisi will agree to sign guarantees of non-use of force against the two republics, as this would be tantamount to recognizing their independence.

Moscow demands transfer of discussions from Switzerland

Moscow, Sukhum and Tskhinval are actively working on the issue of moving the rounds of the International Discussions on Security and Stability in Transcaucasia (IDS) from Geneva, but the necessary consensus among all participants of the discussions has not yet been formed, the Russian Foreign Ministry explained to Izvestia.

- In this connection, we would consider it premature to talk about another negotiating point and possible terms of "relocation". It is important to understand the criteria for selecting a new venue for the MDZ rounds. First of all, it is impartiality, i.e. the ability of the authorities of the host country to refrain from any measures detrimental to the interests of any of the participants in the discussions," the ministry explained.

The discussions have been held since September 2008 with the participation of the Republic of Abkhazia, Georgia, the Republic of South Ossetia, the Russian Federation and the United States under the co-chairmanship of the UN, the OSCE and the European Union. On November 5 and 6, the 62nd round of discussions was held in Geneva. An agreement was reached to hold a new meeting in March 2025.

The Russian Foreign Ministry reminded Izvestia that the reason that prompted Moscow to raise the issue of postponing the MDZ was the final loss of Switzerland's declared neutral status due to its adherence to all the packages of illegal anti-Russian sanctions of the European Union and solidarity with the Kiev regime. Bern, in addition, froze Russian accounts totaling 7.7 billion Swiss francs ($8.8 billion).

- Another fundamental point should also be borne in mind: while insisting on postponing the rounds, Russia, Abkhazia and South Ossetia continue to advocate for the unconditional preservation of the negotiation format itself, which has proven its relevance. In many respects thanks to the discussions it is possible to maintain relative calm in the Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-South Ossetian border areas and minimize the risks of escalation of tension "on the ground," the Russian Foreign Ministry stressed.

Which countries can become a platform for future meetings

At the March meeting, the diplomatic ministry added, the Russian side also intends together with the Abkhazian and South Ossetian allies to continue to consistently promote common priorities, including the topic of moving regular meetings of the MDZ from Geneva.

The South Ossetian Foreign Ministry confirmed to Izvestia that "a number of states" were being considered as the venue for the discussions, but the decision to move them could only be made by consensus of the participants. The Abkhazian Foreign Ministry pointed out that "it is premature to name possible new venues": the topic of postponement is being discussed, but it is "not a matter of one day".

The neutral and non-aligned status of the country remains an important criterion that should be taken into account when choosing a site for the DMZ, Konstantin Kosachev, vice-speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.

- In this sense, I would be surprised if Turkey became such a venue. On the contrary, it could be Serbia or Azerbaijan as a country in the region. But it could be some countries more distant from the region, but gravitating towards it, such as the United Arab Emirates," the politician said.

By the way, in favor of the Middle East is also the fact that the countries of the region are actively cooperating with Russia as mediators in solving humanitarian issues in the conflict in Ukraine. Thus, the UAE and Saudi Arabia participated in the exchange of prisoners between the parties. Qatar, for its part, has been a mediator over the past two years in the issue of reuniting families separated amid the armed confrontation. Doha has also recently said it is also ready to mediate between Russia and the new Syrian authorities.

Middle Eastern countries may suit both Georgia and the US. Serbia, on the other hand, could be problematic to host such events, as Belgrade itself has territorial disputes with self-proclaimed Kosovo.

In addition, one should not forget that the postponement is also associated with logistical problems. "To get to the venue of the talks, we have to draw up complicated routes, as there is no direct air service from Moscow. Of course, we would like to find a more convenient place to hold discussions, and this is our common position with Russian and Abkhazian allies," Konstantin Kochiev, State Advisor to the President of South Ossetia, said earlier.

But, of course, there are other countries that can be considered as an alternative platform. According to Konstantin Kochiev, it could be Kenya - the UN office is located in Nairobi. On the other hand, Kenya seems to be too remote a country to solve problems in Transcaucasia. Kochiev also spoke about Astana and Minsk, but here Georgia and the US may consider Kazakhstan and Belarus too "pro-Russian".

Why Georgia does not agree to sign guarantees

If we return to the discussions on security and stability in the Transcaucasus, at the last round of talks Moscow emphasized "the importance of translating into practical terms" the "conciliatory signals" coming from Tbilisi. Moscow believes that Georgia needs to consolidate and develop them into concrete steps, including, first of all, the adoption of legally binding guarantees of non-use of force against the two republics. Russia also insists on launching the process of delimitation of the Georgian-Abkhazian and Georgian-South Ossetian state borders with their subsequent demarcation.

At the same time, the Georgian authorities advocate the restoration of the territorial integrity of the country, emphasizing that it must be achieved peacefully. It should be recalled that during the last election campaign the leaders of the ruling Georgian Dream party emphasized the guilt of former President Mikheil Saakashvili in unleashing the bloody war of 2008.

Meanwhile, it is obvious that for Georgia signing the above-mentioned guarantees that South Ossetia and Abkhazia want from it would be tantamount to recognizing their independence. In this sense, it is not worth waiting for any agreements between Tbilisi, Tskhinval and Sukhum to be formalized at the next rounds of the MDZ, says Vadim Mukhanov, head of the Caucasus sector of IMEMO RAN.

- Georgia's position on this issue will not change. Statements about Mikheil Saakashvili were exclusively pre-election in nature and were aimed at showing that the policy of the previous Georgian authorities was entirely adventurous and erroneous. Now the situation with Abkhazia and South Ossetia is static, and Georgia is satisfied with the status quo. And this fits very well with normal trade and economic relations between Tbilisi and Moscow," he noted.

The expert emphasized that Russian-Georgian relations are clearly divided into two tracks. And if the political track is still frozen, the economic track is witnessing qualitative development. In particular, according to the results of the first nine months of this year, Russia has retained the second place among Georgia's partners with trade volumes of $1.8 billion. Turkey remains in the first place, the trade turnover with which reached $2.33 billion.