A hasty conclusion: Iraq has changed its mind about chasing away U.S. soldiers
Iraq, which earlier sought the withdrawal of the US military contingent from the country, has decided to reconsider its demand. This is reported by the American media. Baghdad, which was under the strong influence of the Iranian authorities, is now in desperate need of military support from the West because of recent events in Syria. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Changed their minds
"Although initially Baghdad, which was under strong pressure from Tehran, insisted on the withdrawal of US troops, apparently the situation has changed after the fall of the Assad regime," the online portal Al Arabia News reported in an article titled "Pentagon Increases US Troop Strength in Syria and Iraq Without Too Much Noise."
Situation in Syria
According to its information, the U.S. authorities conceal the exact number of American soldiers on the territory of Syria and Iraq. It is only known that along with 2,500 US military personnel in Iraq "there are some additional forces."
"However, in order to secure the conduct of this operation, and based on diplomatic considerations, we cannot provide more detailed information," said Pentagon spokesman Major General Pat Ryder.
U.S. officials have attributed the military buildup in Iraq and Syria to the increased threat posed by the ouster of Bashar al-Assad. "I expect Iraq to formally request an extension of the U.S. troop presence," The Washington Post quoted a senior Iraqi official as saying.
U.S. soldiers conduct registration and calibration of the M777 A2 howitzer weapon system in Syria
Against this backdrop, the Al-Akhbar newspaper, citing a source inside the Iraqi Shiite group Al-Nujaba, reported that rocket and drone launches toward Israel from Iraqi territory had been halted as a step toward Washington.
It has long asked for an exit
Iraqi authorities have long pushed for the withdrawal of the U.S. contingent from the country. Demands for the complete withdrawal of foreign troops began to sound since January 2020, when a senior Iranian general Qassem Suleimani was assassinated in Baghdad. At the same time, the country's parliament voted in favor of a resolution calling on local authorities to end any foreign military presence.
After that, a U.S. drone strike in Baghdad killed Abu Bakir al-Saadi, commander of the pro-Iranian group Kataib Hezbollah. The parliament tried to promote the document on the need to withdraw the American contingent, for this purpose in the legislative body of the country on the initiative of Prime Minister Mohammed Soudani a special committee was created. However, it was supported by only 100 out of 329 deputies.
The administration of US President Joseph Biden announced the end of the military mission in Iraq in 2021, while emphasizing that the Americans are focused on intelligence sharing, consulting, training and education of local security forces.
The first round of talks between Baghdad and Washington on the future of the US coalition in Iraq took place in January 2024, after which the sides met more than once. The U.S. agreed to the formation of expert working groups to assess the level of threat from militants, the situation in the region and the combat effectiveness of Iraqi security forces.
Initially, Iraq had hoped that the U.S. would begin the process of withdrawing its contingent in September 2024 and manage it within a year. Washington agreed, but hoped to retain some advisers as part of an advisory mission.
As Pentagon chief Lloyd Austin explained, a replacement of the coalition presence in Iraq with a bilateral agreement between Washington and Baghdad was being prepared. At the same time, the Americans explained that the timetable for the withdrawal of the international coalition would be drawn up taking into account threats from ISIS militants (a terrorist organization banned in Russia).
The Iraqi Defense Ministry assured that the local armed forces were ready to control security in the country. However, after the fall of the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria, the situation changed.
What experts think
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, and author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gate", noted in a conversation with Izvestia that there are just over 2,500 US troops in Iraq now. According to him, this is a very conditional presence, more symbolic.
- But even it is enough to keep the situation in the country more or less stable. The Iraqi leadership realizes that as long as the boot of an American soldier is on their land, Iraq is under the wing of the United States," the expert explained.
However, the question arises: to what extent the changes taking place in neighboring Syria may affect Iraq. According to Ontikov, the Turks and the new Syrian authorities in eastern Syria are moving toward an anti-Kurdish operation. That raises concerns in Baghdad. In addition, when destabilization occurs in a neighboring country, threats appear in Iraq as well. Sleeping cells of ISIS may become active, as they are still present in the country, the expert emphasized.
The analyst recalled how the Americans withdrew from Iraq for the first time after the 2003 campaign:
- Just a few years after that, the rapid and large-scale rise of the ISIS began, to the point that they approached Baghdad, and Iraq was forced to turn to the United States. An international coalition to fight the terrorists was established, led by the Americans.
In his opinion, there are fears that the changes that the Syrians are going through could indirectly affect Baghdad as well. And this could lead to the activation of radical elements in Iraq itself.
- The presence of the U.S. military, albeit symbolic, is now a guarantee that the situation will be stable," Ontikov concluded.
Danila Krylov, a researcher of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department at the Institute of International Scientific Research of the Russian Academy of Sciences, PhD in political science, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that after the change of power in Syria, there was a local redistribution of influence and the balance of power shifted.
- Taking into account the arrival of the new US administration, which will deploy a full-scale program in the Middle East, many states, including Iraq, realize that now they will have to be friends with the Americans even by force," the political scientist stressed.
He recalled that the deterioration of relations between Baghdad and Washington occurred against the background of the assassination of IRGC Brigadier General Suleimani in Iraq, and then there were several violations of Iraqi airspace.
- Against the general background, when the Americans were fleeing Afghanistan in August 2021, they were asked to leave Baghdad as well. Besides, Biden needed to get some political victory. Withdrawal of U.S. troops from Iraq was a good idea," the expert said.
However, in his opinion, the withdrawal of troops turned out to be rather conditional, because in fact it is a transition of the Iraqi-Syrian border in the direction of northeastern Syria, where there are Kurdish regions, which are controlled neither by Turkey nor by the HTS (recognized as a terrorist group and banned in Russia).
According to Krylov, Iraqi politics since the adoption of the constitution in 2005 is "every attempt by the Americans to create a puppet-run system of power".
- It eventually dropped its dictators, but certain ties remained. Also, Iraq has grown economically in recent years, but politically and socio-politically is very weak and unstable. So is the Iraqi army," the analyst believes.
Krylov recalled the events of 2014-2015, when Mosul was taken and troops of ISIS militants were marching on Baghdad.
- Now the situation may repeat itself. The Iraqis understand this perfectly well. However, the American presence in the country does not guarantee anything yet, because at one time, despite billions of dollars invested in Afghanistan, the country under American control collapsed with the same speed as in Syria," the political scientist concluded.
