Points of discord: what awaits Armenia and Azerbaijan in the new year
Armenia and Azerbaijan conducted intensive negotiations throughout the past year with the aim of concluding a peace agreement and normalizing relations. However, there was no success, and in December it became clear that Baku's list of demands and claims is only growing. The Azerbaijani side, in particular, wants Yerevan to drop lawsuits in international courts, agree to rewrite its Constitution and accept hundreds of thousands of Azerbaijani refugees. Experts say that the situation in Transcaucasia under such conditions remains explosive. "Izvestia" looked into the situation.
Baku and Yerevan are negotiating
Armenia and Azerbaijan have been holding intensive negotiations throughout 2024 with the aim to sign a peace agreement and normalize relations. The sides regularly exchanged their versions of the document, made amendments and sent each other the results. It is known that by the end of the year, the Azerbaijani side had already sent the eleventh version of the agreement to Yerevan.
Representatives of the two countries never tired of emphasizing that success was near and diplomatic work was about to be completed. Thus, in late October, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that 80-90% of the agreement had been agreed upon. According to him, the wording on the establishment of diplomatic relations, mutual recognition of territorial integrity, absence of territorial claims and the obligation not to make such claims in the future is ready.
Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan
In turn, Armenian Foreign Minister Ararat Mirzoyan said in early December that the preamble and 15 of the 17 articles of the treaty had been agreed upon. "If there is enough political will, the agreement can be concluded very quickly. Armenia has constantly proved its readiness to sign the document and close the page of hostility in the South Caucasus," he said at a meeting of OSCE foreign ministers.
Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Ceyhun Bayramov confirmed that two points remained to be agreed upon. He added that Azerbaijan and Armenia have a historic opportunity to turn the page of confrontation. "Azerbaijan's determination in this issue is unchanged, and we are waiting for a reciprocal political will and responsibility on the part of Armenia," he noted.
The list of claims is only growing
Under such conditions, it may seem that Yerevan and Baku are close to success, if not in the past, then this year they are sure to reach an agreement. In reality, however, there are many reasons for caution. The fact is that the list of demands and claims of the Azerbaijani side is constantly expanding. Ilham Aliyev told about them in mid-December in his interview to VGTRK.
In particular, he revealed for the first time the content of two points of the peace agreement, on which agreement with Armenia has not yet been reached. According to him, one of them concerns mutual renunciation of lawsuits in international courts. It is known that there are four Armenian complaints pending before the ECHR alone - on crimes during the 2020 war, the blockade of the Lachin corridor in 2023, trials of prisoners in Azerbaijan and violation of the rights of Armenians in Karabakh.
European Court of Human Rights
The second controversial clause involves a ban on the deployment of third-country representatives on the border, in this sense Azerbaijan's greatest displeasure with the EU mission in Armenia. According to Aliyev, the EU contingent initially consisted of 40 people, later expanded to 200 people. "Moreover, this mission smoothly turned into a NATO mission, as representatives of Canada joined there," the Azerbaijani president noted.
In addition, Aliyev voiced two more demands. According to him, Baku seeks Yerevan to change the Armenian Constitution, because the current version of the document refers to the declaration of independence of the republic, and it talks about the desire to reunite with Karabakh. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said earlier that he is not against adopting a new constitution, but this requires a referendum, which can be held only in 2027.
The second demand of this series is the liquidation of the OSCE Minsk Group, which was established in 1992 for the peaceful settlement of the Karabakh conflict. In 2022, this structure ceased to function due to disagreements of the co-chairs - Russia, the United States and France. Formally, however, the group still exists, and the decision on liquidation can only be taken by consensus, i.e. Armenia must give its consent.
Cars of Nagorno-Karabakh residents in the Lachin corridor
Additionally, Aliyev talks about resettlement of Azerbaijanis on the territory of Armenia. Interestingly, this topic initially appeared as a response to Yerevan's demand to return ethnic Armenians to Nagorno-Karabakh, but now it has taken on a life of its own. According to Aliyev, in the late 80s and early 90s about 300,000 Azerbaijanis were expelled from their homes in Armenia, now they must not only return, but also reintegrate, that is, apparently, to receive political representation.
Finally, Baku's obvious displeasure is caused by the Armenian side's purchase of foreign weapons, especially close cooperation in this matter with France, the United States and India. "The results of the second Karabakh war in 2020 and the anti-terrorist operation of September 2023 should not be forgotten by them. They should also realize that despite the maximum support of the Macron regime, as well as the US State Department, here 'on the ground', if they plan another provocation against us, no one will help them," the Azerbaijani president warns.
It is clear that the Armenian authorities can fulfill some of the demands relatively easily. For example, Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said in response to Aliyev's interview that Armenia agrees not to deploy third-country forces on the border after delimitation. In addition, Yerevan says it is generally not against disbanding the OSCE Minsk Group. "If there is no conflict, what is the point of having a format dealing with conflict resolution. But we want to make sure that Azerbaijan approaches this issue with the same logic," the Armenian prime minister said.
Armenian servicemen on the border with the Kelbajar region
Other issues are obviously much more difficult to agree on. For example, Yerevan says it has every right to rearm its army. They emphasize that in September of this year the Constitutional Court of the country actually canceled the declaration of independence, and there are no references to Karabakh in the main documents now. Finally, they categorically reject talk of resettlement of Azerbaijanis in Armenia. "It is obvious that by talking about the so-called West Azerbaijan, official Baku wants to objectify its territorial claims to the Republic of Armenia," Pashinyan notes.
What experts say
Azerbaijani political scientist Ilgar Velizadeh believes that the conditions for signing a peace treaty are not ripe yet.
- Let me take only one issue - about the Armenian Constitution. It indirectly speaks about the desire to reunite with Karabakh, that is, some future Armenian government can easily denounce the peace agreement on the basis of this text. It is clear that the Azerbaijani side is determined for a lasting peace, so it demands to make corrections. Besides, the activity of extra-regional forces, primarily France and the United States, which arm Armenia and send their observers to our border, causes serious concern," he explains.
According to the interlocutor, the situation may improve this year.
- A new administration will come to power in the United States. There is hope that Washington will pursue a more pragmatic policy, stop interfering in various conflicts around the world, including in our Transcaucasia. Under such conditions, the chances of creating a regional security system will increase. If this does not happen, it is very difficult to expect any negotiating success," he emphasizes.
Azerbaijani serviceman in front of BTR-82A
Armenian political scientist Hrant Mikaelian says that the risks for regional security remain high.
- The Armenian side has agreed to many concessions. For example, it agrees not to deploy forces of third countries on the border after signing the agreement, is ready to dissolve the Minsk Group, is ready to withdraw lawsuits from international courts. We do not see anything of the kind from the Azerbaijani side. Obviously, Baku is negotiating formally, in fact, they believe that they can achieve much more for themselves by force," he says.
Mikaelian adds that armed escalation is possible this year.
- Azerbaijan is increasing its military budget, Turkey has strengthened itself by defeating pro-Iranian forces in Syria. In fact, Baku and Ankara are preparing for a new war in our region. At the same time, the Armenian side will continue to try to sign a peace treaty. But I am sure that even the formal signing of this document will not change anything. We know very well that Azerbaijan is capable of violating already existing agreements. For example, they quietly disregarded the trilateral agreement of 2020," he emphasizes.
