The newness of relations: Russian-US contacts may change under Trump
Donald Trump's return to the White House may significantly affect the relations between Russia and the United States. Thus, the probability of starting negotiations on Ukraine is increasing. Trump has already expressed his readiness to meet with Vladimir Putin, after the Russian leader during the direct line stated the possibility of dialog. The future administration may also go for the easing of sanctions against Russia in response to progress in the settlement of the conflict. At the same time, the Republican's desire to end it does not mean that he will completely abandon support for Kiev. In addition, sanctions against Russia were also introduced under his administration. How Washington's approach to Moscow may change - in the material "Izvestia".
The likelihood of negotiations on Ukraine under Trump
In 2025, negotiations on Ukraine may begin. At least, this is expected by the international community in anticipation of Donald Trump's return to the White House. During the election campaign, he repeatedly promised to end the Ukrainian conflict even before his inauguration on January 20 or, for example, in 24 hours. Such statements, rather unsubstantiated, but it is worth noting that after his official election, Trump continues to advocate for the earliest possible settlement of the conflict.
President-elect Donald Trump at the White House
Moreover, he has already expressed his readiness to meet with Vladimir Putin, after the Russian president, answering a question from an NBC journalist during a live line, allowed a dialog with the future American leader.
- There is a probability of starting negotiations on Ukraine. Much will depend on the situation on the battlefield and what the initial conditions for them will be. Therefore, we should not expect quick breakthroughs in this direction. We see that a window of opportunity for such a dialog has now opened in the United States, but there is no guarantee that it will lead somewhere. Talking on the phone is not enough, and the problems in U.S.-Russian relations are so deep and complicated that it will not be possible to solve them simply through consultations at once. But, of course, a conversation is better than no conversation," Ivan Timofeev, director general of the Russian International Affairs Council, told Izvestia.
The realities on the ground are not in Ukraine's favor so far. Given the shortage of military personnel, the Joe Biden administration is pressuring the Ukrainian authorities to lower the mobilization age from 25 to 18. At Bankova, they are in no hurry to make such decisions, although the Verkhovna Rada has already allowed a reduction to 18-20 years of age in the first months of 2025.
Young conscripts at a Ukrainian military base
The problem is that Trump's plan differs little from the Democrats' proposals - the same stop at the contact line without any clear points about Ukraine's future. Nor do the latest statements of the next president bring clarity. On the one hand, he does not support the transfer of long-range weapons to Kiev, and he called the AFU's strikes deep into Russia unacceptable; on the other hand, he assured that the desire to end the conflict does not mean that he will "abandon Ukraine". Thus, Kiev's support may take a different form, for example, only humanitarian, American international law lawyer Cline Preston told Izvestia. At the same time, Ivan Timofeyev believes that military aid will still arrive.
Ukrainian residents accept humanitarian aid
- Under Trump, military support for Ukraine, supplies of weapons and equipment will continue. There will be financial support and training of military and civilian personnel. Trump is a populist. The problem is that there is a long-term American foreign policy line, so aid to Ukraine will continue," he said.
The layout of the future US administration
Undoubtedly, an important role will be played by Trump's inner circle. Immediately after his election, he began to form a new team, which differs significantly from its 2017 sample. Many of the potential members of the future administration are known for anti-war rhetoric and the main priority sees the solution of domestic political issues rather than external ones. Recall that in 2019, Trump fired his national security adviser John Bolton, arguing that he "strongly disagreed with many of his proposals." For example, Bolton has often advocated for military operations abroad. For example, according to Washington insiders, he was among those who slowed down US negotiations with the Taliban (the organization is under UN sanctions for terrorist activities), allowed strikes on North Korea and Iran, and insisted on a tough stance toward Russia. This time around, the Republican apparently doesn't want to allow those who might pursue their own policies to stick it to him. Although there are supporters of pressuring Moscow in the emerging team, the overall trend is toward de-escalation.
- He has two diametrically opposed teams lining up. One is the hawks, who talk about reducing aid to Ukraine, but still stick to the idea of coming out victorious from the conflict and pressurizing Russia. The second team, which includes Vivek Ramaswamy, Ilon Musk, JD Vance and others, says the priority of U.S. policy is China, tariffs and the country's economic recovery. They are in favor of making a deal with Putin and sidelining Ukraine. At the moment, it seems to me that the second team is gaining the upper hand," Vladimir Brovkin, an American historian and former Harvard University professor, told Izvestia.
US President-elect Donald Trump in the company of Tesla and SpaceX CEO Ilon Musk and Vice President-elect J.D. Vance
Perhaps it' s not peacemaking that is behind Trump's activity at all. Dmitry Novikov, associate professor and head of the Department of Political Geography and Modern Geopolitics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, believes that Ukraine is an instrument of pressure on Russia.
- Reducing aid to Ukraine, which is considered desirable by Republicans, is a carrot for Russia, but, on the other hand, there is also a stick, which consists in increasing military and technical aid, and, most importantly, allowing Kiev to make full use of what it is given," he explained.
Prospects for Russian-American relations
There are no prospects for a comprehensive change in the U.S. policy toward Russia. The level of interaction between Moscow and Washington is currently extremely low. Strong contradictions are present in the nuclear field, where, in fact, a new arms race has begun. All previously signed agreements on strategic stability are either suspended or irrelevant. Only sporadic contacts remain through military and partly foreign policy agencies.
The election of Donald Trump has probably opened a window of opportunity for warming U.S.-Russian relations. He has repeatedly noted his good relations with Putin and mutual respect. Suffice it to recall the relatively successful Russia-US summit held in Helsinki in 2018, which is difficult to imagine in today's realities.
Russia-U.S. summit in Helsinki, 2018
Despite this, the attitude towards Trump in the Russian Federation is quite cautious. As emphasized in the country's Foreign Ministry, the Russian authorities do not have excessive illusions about his second term. They noted that the ruling political elite of the United States has an anti-Russian orientation and adheres to the line of "containment of Moscow" regardless of party affiliation.
It was under Trump that Washington was the first to withdraw from the most important agreement - the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles, signed by Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan in 1987. He also imposed a huge number of sanctions against Moscow. In general, the American foreign policy course was clearly reflected in the U.S. National Security Strategy adopted in 2017, where Russia was among the main threats, along with China. In 2025, a new strategy will appear, which will be used to assess changes in the White House's course. However, China has now firmly taken the place of the main strategic rival of the United States.
US President Reagan and General Secretary of the CPSU Central Committee Gorbachev sign the Treaty on the Elimination of Intermediate-Range and Shorter-Range Missiles
- I do not think it makes sense to expect a change in the course of the United States toward Russia. In general, there are certain debates among Republican politicians and experts. There is a popular point of view, saying that because China is the main adversary, it would be preferable to reduce confrontation with less important adversaries: Russia and Iran. At the same time, it should be remembered that during his first presidency, the considerations were roughly the same. Even then, he was talking about some big deal with Russia, which never happened," says Dmitry Novikov.
There are other forces in the U.S. government, and the president does not have much power, but there is reason for cautious optimism, says Cline Preston. Thus, Donald Trump may cancel or soften sanctions against Russia in case of settlement of the military conflict in Ukraine, an unnamed representative of the transition team told TASS. However, according to Novikov, the restrictive measures do not so much reflect a desire to influence Russia's policy on the Ukrainian issue, but rather become a tool to contain and weaken Russia.
