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- The seventh son, or the Sixth Republic: in France there is renewed talk of a change of polity
The seventh son, or the Sixth Republic: in France there is renewed talk of a change of polity
The political crisis in France is gradually gaining a new dimension in its development. Against the background of confusion in the government, low ratings of the president and negative economic forecasts, the idea of a new reformatting of the country's state structure is being heard more and more often. The system created by de Gaulle in the late 50s is once again being called ineffective. Izvestia tells us where the idea of the Sixth Republic came from, who is promoting it and whether it has a future.
The treasury is emptying
France continues to plunge into a state of political uncertainty. Michel Barnier's government lasted only 91 days (the shortest in the country's history) before it was dismissed by Parliament. A new cabinet led by François Bayrou is predicted to face a similar future. Jean-Luc Mélenchon, leader of the leftist Unruly France party, said that "the new government will probably fall in mid-January," just as its predecessors did after a vote of no confidence.
Outgoing French Prime Minister Michel Barnier on the day of the handover ceremony for new Prime Minister Francois Bayre
The reason for Barnier's vote of no confidence was an attempt to pass a draft budget without opposition approval. Since the main financial document of the country has not been adopted, the Bayrou government is doomed, like its predecessors, to work under double pressure. Whether the new prime minister will be able to find a solution while being between a hammer and anvil is a big question.
Meanwhile, the problem with the budget is a consequence, not the cause of the reigning chaos. The cause is the negative trends in the French economy. The public debt of the Fifth Republic rose by €71 billion over the trimester to a hitherto unattainable €3.3 trillion, or 113.7% of GDP (compared to 112.2% at the end of June 2024). The budget deficit is 6%, and one-third of it is made up of social benefits. These are the ones that need to be cut or compensated. The left wants to do it through taxes and additional obligations for business, the right - through cuts in benefits and preferences for migrants and some civil servants.
However, this is not and cannot be a solution to the systemic problem. As former Economy Minister Antoine Armand has already stated, the extreme fiscal situation will only worsen over time.
In the middle of the discussion is Emmanuel Macron and his continuing plummeting approval rating. According to Politco, the president's approval rating has fallen to an all-time low of 22%. And 68% of BFM TV' s audience favored his immediate resignation.
"It's over for Macron. My words are not cruel, it's an institutional reality. He has even lost the ability to appoint a prime minister who appointed himself," said Marine Le Pen.
The economic situation in France in this context looks like a consequence of the president's policies. Since Macron took office, public debt has risen by €1 trillion. Moreover, over the past 20 years, public spending (and with it debt) has only increased. In the coming year, the Public Debt Management Agency will issue an additional €285 billion in bonds to repay loans.
Foreign policy failures also complete the picture: the fall of the French post-colonial system in Africa and the futile "strategic uncertainty" in Ukraine. A separate item is the problems in the overseas territories: New Caledonia, Martinique and Mayotte.
In these conditions, another idea, traditional in its relevance, has once again surfaced - a change in the state structure of France. The Fifth Republic should be transformed into the Sixth.
Liberty, equality and office
The concept belongs to the French left. First of all it consists in criticizing the existing order. The current powers of the president allow him to remain in power and implement his policies - even when he has completely lost political influence in the country's parliament. A key element of this system is the right to appoint the head of the French government. François Bayrou thus became France's fourth prime minister in one past year.
Jean-Luc Melanchon, who promotes the idea of the Sixth Republic, calls for an end to such a "presidential monarchy" and transfer the power to appoint the head of government to the parliament. In other words, to move from a presidential republic to a parliamentary one. It will prevent a situation like the current one, when no one supports the president, but he continues to rule and appoint.
This idea is close to French citizens. According to a poll conducted by the Public Senat TV channel, 56% of respondents believe that the time of the Fifth Republic has expired. 85% are in favor of systemic reforms of state institutions, 76% want to abolish the majoritarian system (that is, to give the opportunity of representation in parliament for small and regional parties), 56% - for one five-year presidential term without the right to re-election.
Deputies at a meeting in the National Assembly
At the same time, experts point out that changing the emphasis in the state structure cannot be an effective cure for economic diseases, especially in France, where the office of president was deliberately given such broad powers.
Give the man power
The Fifth Republic came into being as a result of the constitutional reform carried out by Charles de Gaulle. The French president in this way sought not only to strengthen his power, but also to end the parliamentary crisis. The parliament of the Fourth Republic, endowed with exceptional powers, not only failed to cope with the challenges, the most serious of which was the war of independence of Algeria, but also aggravated the situation with its actions.
In 12 years, France changed 22 members of the Council of Ministers and 12 of its leaders. The 1958 Constitution proposed by de Gaulle established a strong president in the role of "authoritative arbiter". Pavel Timofeev, Head of the Regional Problems and Conflicts Sector of the Primakov IMEMO, emphasizes that this was due to the current political reality in the country.
View of the Bourbon Palace, where the French National Assembly meets
- The key difference between the Fifth Republic and the Fourth is that the decisive role is given not to parliament, but to the president, who appoints the prime minister. This is a hedge against a parliamentary crisis. Today's parliamentary crisis was normal for the Fourth Republic. And it was the constant political instability coupled with foreign policy failures (Indochina, Algeria, the Middle East) that created the need to form the Fifth Republic. There were two possible formats in its system: coexistence (when the president and parliament represent different political forces) and the implementation of the president's policy through the majority in parliament," the Izvestia interlocutor points out.
Eaten Children of the Revolution
The left has long challenged the priority of presidential power. As far back as François Mitterrand called the Fifth Republic a recurring coup d'état. But as soon as Mitterrand himself came to power, the claims instantly evaporated, notes Pavel Timofeev.
- The left was in power and successfully used all the advantages of presidential power. There is a famous half-legend, half-history about François Mitterrand, who, when he was elected president, said: "The 1958 Constitution is not for me, but it suits me". When he was in opposition, he was a vocal critic of the right-wing. For example, he believed that France's nuclear status threatened global stability, called the country an autocracy, and lamented the inability of parliament to control the president. When the left came to power, it turned out that they were actually satisfied with everything," the expert says.
Mitterrand was not the only socialist president in French history. A much closer example is François Hollande. But even under him there were no attempts to change the Constitution.
French statesman and politician, 24th President of France François Hollande
Now we have a unique situation in many respects. The opposition to Macron is huge, but it is not monolithic. The president tried to take advantage of this circumstance in July, when, contrary to the election results, he managed to reach an agreement with the right-wing National Union and promote Michel Barnier to the post of prime minister. Thus, the nominal winners of the vote, Unconquered France, were left with nothing. However, as further events have shown, this deal had a very short lifespan. And now the president, like his appointee François Bayrou, is under constant pressure from both poles of the French political field.
However, it is too early to talk about the Sixth Republic as a ready-made political project, Pavel Timofeev argues.
- What the Sixth Republic means is something different for everyone. There is no single image, and I haven't seen any reasoned justifications that it will be better than the Fifth. In order to change the Constitution, you need 3/5 votes of both houses of parliament. So far it is very difficult to imagine such a thing," concludes the expert.
