With a new top: which countries will change power in 2025
In the new year 2025, Germany, Canada, the Czech Republic and Moldova will elect new parliaments in these countries, while in Belarus, Poland and Romania citizens will determine the future head of state. The elections are taking place against the backdrop of major changes in the world, and the armed conflict in Ukraine remains an important factor. In which countries a tense race of candidates is still expected - in the material of "Izvestia".
Germany will vote early
Early parliamentary elections in Germany, which are to be held on February 23, open the political season in the EU. Initially they were scheduled for the fall of 2025, but in November there was a de facto collapse of the ruling "traffic light" coalition, consisting of the Social Democrats (SPD), the Free Democratic Party (FDP) and the Greens. On December 16, the Bundestag passed a vote of no confidence in Olaf Scholz's cabinet.
The favorite in the race remains the CDU/CSU bloc, which is supported by about a third of voters. CDU leader Friedrich Merz is considered the most likely contender for the post of Chancellor of Germany. The Alternative for Germany (AdG) is in second place with 19%; it has nominated its co-chair Alice Weidel as a candidate for chancellor.
The SPD is going into the election led by incumbent Chancellor Olaf Scholz, while the Greens have nominated Robert Habeck, who is now deputy head of the Cabinet, as their candidate for Chancellor. Rounding out the list of parties capable of entering parliament is Sarah Wagenknecht's Union, which hopes to win over most of the Left Party's electorate.
The most favorable position towards Russia is held by the AdG and the Union of Sarah Wagenknecht, but they have virtually no chance of gaining a majority in parliament or being part of the government coalition. In contrast, the CDU/CSU bloc has promised to provide Ukraine with long-range Taurus cruise missiles in coordination with the United States. The current government refuses to hand over these weapons to Kiev because it fears an escalation of the conflict with Russia. At the same time, Germany has provided Ukraine with aid totaling around €32 billion - in the form of humanitarian support, direct payments or arms - since the start of the ETS.
Presidential elections in Poland
Poland will hold presidential elections in May. The incumbent head of state Andrzej Duda, who represents the Law and Justice (PiS) party, is completing his second term and is not eligible for re-election. Recall that the opposition coalition led by Donald Tusk's Civic Coalition party won the 2023 parliamentary elections.
The main rivals in the election will be the mayor of Warsaw Rafal Trzaskowski from the "Civic Coalition" and Karol Nawrocki, President of the Institute of National Memory, which was supported by PiS. According to the latest polls, Trzaskowski is in the lead, but his victory in the first round is unlikely. In the second round, the candidates' chances will be roughly equal because Polish society is divided, said Oleg Nemensky, a researcher at the Institute of Slavic Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences.
- "The result will largely depend on the government's actions, on how much society will be tired or irritated by them by then," the expert told Izvestia.
Warsaw Mayor Rafał Trzaskowski
Russia benefits from the contradictions between the Polish prime minister and president on foreign policy issues, as it generally weakens Warsaw's international positions.
- On the other hand, the position of the current government is more favorable for Russia because it intends to coordinate its policy towards Ukraine and Russia with Brussels. In the United States, Trump is coming to power, and he is unlikely to approve of Poland's desire for an independent policy towards Russia and Ukraine," summarized Oleg Nemensky.
Therefore, Warsaw will not take active steps without coordinating them with European political elites. During the period of the PiS government, Poland's policy in this direction was more aggressive.
Parliamentary elections in the Czech Republic
In October, a new government will be elected in the Czech Republic. Now the cabinet of Petr Fiala is in power, but the main contender for victory is considered to be the ANO 2011 party of Andrej Babiš. He served as prime minister of the Czech Republic from 2017 to 2021.
In the last parliamentary elections in 2021, the conservative Spolu alliance came first with 27.8% of the vote, while Babiš's party went into opposition. In the Czech presidential election in 2023, Andrej Babiš tried to become head of state, but General Petr Pavel won in the second round.
Now the party ANO 2011, according to polls, supports a third of Czech voters, it has left far behind its competitors.
- It appears that Babiš will pursue a policy on the Ukrainian crisis closer to that of Slovakia and Hungary. It will be a setback to a calmer pragmatic line and the possibility to negotiate with Russia," Oleg Nemensky believes.
After the start of the SWO, the Czech Republic declared its full support for Ukraine and imposed sanctions against Russia. So far, Prague has supplied Kiev with more than 1,600 pieces of military equipment and millions of ammunition totaling about $305 million. Hungary and Slovakia have refused to provide military aid to Ukraine. Budapest has launched a number of peacekeeping initiatives, including a Christmas truce and prisoner exchange, which were rejected by Kiev.
Presidential elections in Belarus
Regular presidential elections in Belarus are scheduled for January 26. The incumbent head of state Alexander Lukashenko remains the undisputed leader of the race; his initiative group has collected about 1.5 million signatures of voters. First Secretary of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of Belarus Sergei Syrankov, chairman of the Republican Party of Labor and Justice Alexander Khizhnyak, chairman of the Liberal Democratic Party of Belarus Oleg Gaidukevich also submitted documents for registration as presidential candidates to the CEC.
Presidential elections will be held for the first time after the amendments to the Constitution. Recall that in February 2022, the majority of voters supported the change of the basic law, including the limitation of presidential terms to two, strengthening the role of the All-Belarusian People's Assembly and increasing the term of the Parliament to five years. In addition, the clause that Minsk aims to make its territory a nuclear-free zone and the state neutral was removed from the Constitution of Belarus.
The last presidential election in August 2020 was won by Alexander Lukashenko, who received 80% of the vote. However, opposition candidate Svetlana Tikhanovskaya did not recognize this result and left the country, and protests were held in the republic. Western countries openly supported the non-systemic opposition by granting Tikhanovskaya and her associates political asylum. It is not excluded that the collective West will again make an attempt to interfere in the election process and destabilize the situation in Belarus.
Repeated elections in Romania
Despite the fact that the first round of the presidential election in Romania took place on November 24, the country is waiting for a second vote in 2025. Initially, the second round was scheduled for December 8, 2024, but two days before this date, the Constitutional Court annulled the results of the entire vote. On December 2, the court unanimously decided to confirm the results of the first round, but then reversed its decision after President Klaus Johannis authorized the declassification of information about foreign interference. The basis was a statement by Romania's top national defense council about "Russian activity in cyberspace" and that independent candidate Calin Georgescu's campaign on TikTok "was supported by accounts coordinated by Moscow."
Recall that Georgescu won the first round of the election, as a result of which he was supported by almost 23% of voters. The politician has repeatedly criticized the European Union and NATO, complimented Russia and Vladimir Putin. Second place went to Elena Lasconi, also a representative of the opposition, who favors increasing military aid to Ukraine and strengthening Romania's position in NATO. According to a December 3-4 Sociopol poll, 63% of respondents were ready to support Georgescu in the second round, while 37% of respondents were ready to support Lasconi.
After the results of the first round are canceled, there is a great chance that Georgescu will not be allowed to vote again, Vadim Trukhachev, associate professor at the Russian State University of Humanities and Sciences, told Izvestia. He recalled that Georgescu received the votes of MEP and anti-system politician Diana Shoshoake, who was also removed from the election earlier.
- Most likely, the more moderate Euroskeptic George Simion, who treats Russia and Ukraine equally badly, will win in the end. All protest voices will flock to him," Trukhachev said.
The EU cannot afford to have a non-systemic politician who opposes arms supplies to Kiev come to power. In peacetime this situation could have been allowed, but not in the conditions of confrontation with Russia, believes Vadim Trukhachev.
Parliamentary elections in Moldova
Parliamentary elections will be held in neighboring Moldova in 2025. Not later than July of this year citizens should elect 101 members of the legislative body of the country. Now the majority of deputies represent the Party of Action and Solidarity (PAS), as well as Maia Sandu, who holds the post of president.
In the fall of 2024, she managed to be re-elected with 55% in the second round. Her opponent Alexandru Stoianoglo, a former prosecutor general and candidate of the Party of Socialists (PSRM), received 44.67%. At the same time, Sandu's victory came from the votes of Moldovan citizens in the EU countries, while she received only 48.8% of votes on Moldovan territory.
Moldovan President Maia Sandu
In the last parliamentary elections in 2021, Sandu's party won almost 53% of the vote. However, at the moment, according to polls, PAS can count on the support of about 40% of voters, the opposition Bloc of Communists and Socialists is supported by 22% of respondents, and "Victory" - 14%. At the same time, administrative resources are actively used against the opposition, and the authorities also suspended the license of the opposition and leading Russian-language TV channels Primul in Moldova, RTR Moldova, Accent TV, NTV Moldova, TV6, and Orhei TV, which allegedly cover events in the country in bad faith.
Theoutcome of the parliamentary elections in Moldova is closely related to what Maia Sandu will be ordered to do in Brussels, emphasizes Vadim Truhachev. She may go for election rigging if she gets a command from the EU. According to the expert, the situation in Moldova should be viewed through the prism of Romania, taking into account the fact that the entire Moldovan leadership, including the president, are citizens of this country.
The end of the Trudeau government in Canada
The main contest in the Canadian House of Commons elections is between Justin Trudeau's ruling Liberal Party and Pierre Poilievre's Conservative Party. According to recent polls, the Liberals' lead over the Conservatives nationally is as high as 20 percent. However, the Liberals also had low numbers in the last election, which they won, Ivan Loshkarev, an associate professor of political theory at MGIMO, told Izvestia.
- Trudeau disproved a long-standing rule of Canadian politics that the winner needs to gain control of Quebec to win nationally. The electoral map generally favors the Liberals - they have traditionally densely populated cities on their side," Loshkarev said.
At the same time, if the Conservative Party wins, we can expect tougher rhetoric against Russia and further escalation of tensions in bilateral ties. According to the analyst's assessment, there are no constructive forces toward Moscow in Canada now, and there is a stable anti-Russian consensus in the country.
Where else elections will be held
In addition to the countries mentioned above, elections of various levels will be held around the world. In particular, the interim elections to the parliament of Argentina will be the first test of the popularity of the country's President Javier Miley. And in Bolivia citizens will vote for candidates for the post of the head of state, there the main competitors may become the current president Luis Arce and his one-party former head of the country Evo Morales, who, however, the Constitutional Court of the country at the moment prohibited to run.
Itis possible that presidential elections will also be held in Ukraine, where voting may take place in May. One of the contenders for the post of the head of state remains Volodymyr Zelensky, whose term of office expired in May 2024. According to polls, the main rival of Zelenskyy is the current Ukrainian ambassador to the UK, Valeriy Zaluzhnyy, who used to be the commander-in-chief of the country's armed forces.
The probability of the election is indeed very high, but the final conclusion can be made on February 7, former Verkhovna Rada deputy Spyridon Kilinkarov tells Izvestia.
- We will be able to understand whether the elections will be held not on the day of Donald Trump's inauguration, as many believe, but on February 7, when martial law ends. If it is prolonged, we can't count on any elections. If not, the vote should take place in six months," he explained.
According to him, the participation of Ukrainian leader Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the next election is unlikely. His political figure is no longer of interest to all political players, including those in the West. Russia does not consider Zelenskyy a legitimate leader with whom it makes sense to negotiate, he summarized.
