Formal diversity: opposing agendas are expected in the G7 and G20
In 2025, the presidency of the G7 will go to Canada, which is much less loyal to Russia than Italy, while the G20 will be chaired for the fourth time in a row by a country friendly to Russia - it will be passed from Brazil to South Africa. Ottawa has already announced that it will fight sanctions circumvention and shadow fleet, as well as advocate measures to ensure safety at sea and around underwater infrastructure. Pretoria, on the other hand, will largely continue Brazil's line and work on food security, as well as try to find consensus to resolve conflicts in Ukraine and the Middle East. What decisions we should expect from Canada and South Africa in the international context - in the material of "Izvestia".
What to expect from Canada's presidency in the G7
From Italy the presidency of the G7 in 2025 will pass to Canada. The 51st summit, which will bring together the leaders of Canada, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, Great Britain and the United States, will be held in the resort town of Kananaskis in the province of Alberta. By the way, it was there in 2002 that the 28th meeting of the group was held, then with the participation of Russia. "Eight" became "seven" after the reunification of Crimea with the Russian Federation in 2014.
The Canadian summit will be the first event in this format for British Prime Minister Keir Starmer, his Japanese counterpart Shigeru Ishiba and future American President Donald Trump. Nevertheless, the expert community believes that the change in the composition of the G7 and its presidency is unlikely to significantly affect the content of the summit.
- It cannot be said that the Canadian presidency will significantly change the G7 agenda, including on the international track. Being, in fact, an informal club of the leading developed countries, the role of the G7 in terms of its international influence has decreased in recent years, at least with the creation of the G20, which, in addition to the key developed countries, includes the leading developing countries, - says Evgeny Smirnov, Doctor of Economics, Professor, Head of the Department of World Economy and International Economic Relations of the State University of Management.
In early December, Canadian Foreign Minister Melanie Joly outlined the key issues the country plans to focus on - maritime security, the fight against sanctions circumvention and shadow fleet, as well as the protection of underwater infrastructure and countering illegal fishing.
However, as for sanctions, in late December 2024 it became known that the G7 is discussing measures to tighten the "price ceiling" for Russian oil. The proposals include both a complete ban on its supplies and a variant of lowering the "ceiling" from $60 to $40 per barrel. The Kremlin said that such sanctions "will inevitably hit their initiators and create risks for stability in international markets.
Ottawa is much less loyal to Moscow than Rome, so it is safe to say that the situation in Ukraine will remain on the G7 agenda during the Canadian presidency. At least it will touch on financing. At the end of 2024, the G7 leaders agreed on the details of a $50 billion loan to Kiev. Ukraine is expected to receive the full amount by the end of June 2025. Each country will allocate the loan in the amount that its economy allows, and they will be repaid with interest from frozen Russian assets. Moscow has repeatedly called such proposals by Western countries illegal. However, such ideas may be of a demonstrative nature, especially ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House, who is expected to at least try to resolve the Ukrainian conflict. This is something he has repeatedly stated both before and after his election as president. By the way, Trump intends to discuss the settlement with Vladimir Putin, after the Russian leader declared his readiness to meet during a direct line on December 19.
- In many ways, this initiative is signaling, raising the stakes in a possible bargain. In addition, each G7 member is expected to contribute independently to a common fund for emergency loans. In three European countries - France, Italy and Germany - this may prove problematic due to the domestic political situation and elite doubts about the expediency of such steps," says Ivan Loshkarev, associate professor at the Department of Political Theory at the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
At the same time, inertial support for Ukraine is unlikely to radically affect the situation on the ground. According to Yevgeny Smirnov, Canada and other G7 countries will most likely shy away from solving Kiev's problems due to general fatigue and a large number of contradictions between G7 members on how to resolve the conflict. While the US, Canada and the UK have similar and extremely belligerent positions towards Russia, European states, especially Germany and Italy, have adopted a more balanced policy. In particular, Berlin has not yet approved either the delivery or the use of long-range Taurus missiles. Japan, on the other hand, takes a rather neutral position based on its own legislation, although it imposes sanctions against Russia and helps Kiev with finances.
What to expect from South Africa's presidency of the G20
In parallel with the G7, there is another, expanded format - the G20, in which Russia, unlike the G7, continues to work fully. Three times in a row the presidency of the G20 was held by a country friendly to Russia: in 2022 - Indonesia, in 2023 - India, in 2024 - Brazil. 2025 continues this trend. South Africa has become the host, so we should probably not expect an anti-Russian agenda either. South Africa is not only a country friendly to Russia, but also a member of BRICS, like India and Brazil. As Russia's G20 Sherpa Svetlana Lukash emphasized at the end of last year, South Africa's priorities are fully in line with Russia's interests.
The calendar of the South African presidency already includes more than 130 meetings in various formats. Meetings of foreign ministers in 2025 will be held twice: February 21-22 in Johannesburg and in September during the 80th session of the UN General Assembly. The summit is scheduled for November.
South Africa has defined for itself three main vectors of work - inclusive economic growth, food security, artificial intelligence and innovation for sustainable development. At the G20 leaders' meeting in Brazil, African leader Cyril Ramaphosa formulated the motto of the country's presidency as "Promoting solidarity, equality and sustainable development". In the context of the continent's debt crisis, Pretoria in particular will try to focus on deleveraging.
- Given the growing debt crisis in Africa and the volatility of global commodity markets, South Africa will promote the development of long-term effective debt management strategies that would enhance the financial and economic sustainability of Africa's least developed countries. Over the past decade, developing countries' interest payments on debt have increased by more than 60% and Africa's by more than 130%, and such dynamics significantly limit opportunities for investment and economic growth," says Evgeny Smirnov.
At the same time, in the year of its presidency, South Africa will not work on the idea proposed by Brazil to introduce a global tax of 2% for the super-rich. According to the host country, this task has enough obstacles at this stage.
South African presidential spokesman Vincent Magwenya
By contrast, finding solutions on Ukraine and the Middle East will be on the G20 agenda in 2025. South Africa has set the goal of reaching consensus on the most important geopolitical issues and bringing them up for discussion at the G20 summit. However, these discussions are likely to take place without the personal participation of the Russian leader. In December 2024, the official representative of the South African president Vincent Magwenya said that South Africa has no influence on the International Criminal Court's warrant against Vladimir Putin to invite him to the G20 summit.
Recall that in June 2023 Cyril Ramaphosa presented 10 points of the joint peace plan of African countries. At that time, a delegation of representatives of regional states led by the president of South Africa specifically traveled to Russia and Ukraine. The initiative included a call for peace talks to begin as soon as possible, de-escalation on both sides, security guarantees for Russia and Ukraine, and humanitarian support for those affected by the hostilities. However, a lot of time has passed and there are now new initiatives, such as the one proposed jointly by China and Brazil.
- The African Peace Initiative of 2023 is already very outdated, and South Africa realizes this, so President Ramaphosa openly supported the China-Brazil six-point peace plan last September. In South Africa itself, various political forces are in favor of the country's more active participation in the peace process, but the ways of activation are different," said Ivan Loshkarev.
According to the expert, the liberals of the Democratic Alliance party suggested condemning Russia and siding with the West, while representatives of center-left movements insist on supporting Moscow and condemning NATO expansion. At the same time, the ruling African National Congress party is trying to find a compromise. Therefore, during South Africa's presidency of the G20, it is unlikely that a concrete solution to the Ukrainian crisis will be proposed - the ideas are likely to be a compilation of the African Peace Initiative and the Brazil-China plan, adjusted for the internal situation in South Africa on energy and food issues.
