Negotiating foul: Russia does not see Switzerland as a mediator on Ukraine
Switzerland is not preparing a second peace conference, Bern is now focused on preparations for ceasefire talks, the country's Foreign Ministry told Izvestia. However, Moscow does not see this state as a mediator in a peaceful settlement, the Russian Embassy in Switzerland said. The Russian diplomatic mission noted: pressure and attempts by Western countries to impose the Ukrainian "peace formula" will not change Russia's approach, as it concerns its fundamental national interests. The Izvestia article describes how the Red Cross homeland lost Moscow's trust and what will depend on the position that the United States will take next year.
What are Switzerland's "peace" initiatives?
Just the other day in the media began to spread information about Switzerland's preparation of a new "peace summit" - the first, we recall, was held in June 2024 in Bürgenstock. However, this wording does not correspond to reality, Izvestia found out.
- Switzerland continues to maintain contacts with all interested parties. Switzerland is not currently planning a second peace conference. Now the focus is on preparations for ceasefire negotiations, with the key factor being the US elections," the Swiss Foreign Ministry told Izvestia.
Thus, the words of the country's Foreign Minister Inacio Cassis may have been misinterpreted by the local media, or Swiss diplomacy may have decided to change its approach for one reason or another. However, the first option looks more likely. Either way, the Russian side does not see Switzerland as a possible mediator on this issue.
Bürgenstock Summit
- We are ready for a substantive and constructive dialog with Swiss representatives, including on Ukraine. A recent example is the contacts between Minister Sergey Lavrov and his Swiss counterpart, Iniazo Cassis, which took place on December 18. However, this does not mean that Russia considers Switzerland as a potential mediator, especially if the Confederation continues to follow a blatantly pro-Kiev course in the new year," the Russian Embassy in Bern told Izvestia.
Russia proceeds from the fact that Switzerland has essentially lost its status of a neutral country as a result of its foreign policy. Bern is known to have joined the anti-Russian sanctions and, although the country does not provide lethal weapons to Kiev, it openly supports Ukraine in the current conflict.
Even the aforementioned Bürgenstock summit, in fact, turned out to be an attempt to impose on Russia a "Western approach" to resolving the crisis, which is based on the "Zelensky formula," which implies, among other things, the return of Ukraine to its 1991 borders. Therefore, even when it was not yet clear whether Moscow would receive an invitation from the Swiss side, the Russian Federation immediately refused to participate in such an event. In addition, China and many countries of the global South refused to participate in the "peace summit".
- Pressure and attempts by Western countries to impose capitulation on Russia through the Kiev-style "peace formula" will not change our approach, as we are talking about the fundamental national interests of our country. Such attempts are doubly inappropriate now, when the Kiev regime is clearly demonstrating its terrorist nature to the whole world, and its positions on the front are visibly deteriorating every day," the Russian Embassy in Switzerland added.
At the same time, Moscow "considers the final document of the conference as negligible and not representing added value for the start of real peace talks."
- The pseudo-peace conference in Bürgenstock, which was organized by the Swiss authorities, was a clear example of what Bern really means by "mediation" in the Ukraine issue: promotion of various points of the "peace formula" authored by Vladimir Zelensky, expansion of the anti-Russian coalition at the expense of the countries of the global South and issuing a collective ultimatum to Russia," the Russian embassy added.
Switzerland expectedly sees the situation differently and claims that it is ready to "render good offices" using "its experience and knowledge" to bring the parties to the conflict closer together.
However, the Russian side has never refused to resolve the conflict diplomatically. On December 19, Vladimir Putin said that Russia was ready to conduct a dialog "without preconditions". But on the basis of what Moscow and Kiev agreed on during the negotiation process in Istanbul in 2022 (Ukraine eventually refused to sign the agreement) and on the basis of the realities on the ground now.
What does this have to do with Trump's return to the White House
On the settlement issue, much will depend on what approach the new US administration led by Donald Trump will take. On December 16, he reiterated his intention to make efforts to reach a peace agreement on Ukraine before his inauguration, which is scheduled for January 20. Trump condemned the outgoing Biden administration's decision to allow the Ukrainian armed forces to strike deep into Russia, admitting he would reverse it, and suggested that Vladimir Zelensky should prepare for an agreement to end the conflict.
The Swiss side obviously realizes that the balance of power in the region may change dramatically because of Washington's position. At the same time, so far everything looks like the new White House team is interested in stopping the escalation.
Trump's Special Envoy to Ukraine Keith Kellogg said earlier that Moscow and Kiev are allegedly fully prepared to start a dialog on peace. He did not rule out the possibility that he would visit Kiev and a number of European capitals in January. Bloomberg writes that he is ready to come even to Moscow. By the way, Kellogg has already prepared a plan to resolve the conflict, which includes incentives and ways to put pressure on both Kiev and Moscow.
Keith Kellogg
However, even if the United States does change its foreign policy and Washington abandons the idea of inflicting a "strategic defeat" on Russia, Switzerland is unlikely to become a mediator in the negotiations between the conflicting parties. Rich Middle Eastern monarchies, such as Saudi Arabia or Qatar, are more likely to play this role. They have been neutral throughout the conflict and have been helping Moscow and Kiev to solve humanitarian problems such as prisoner of war exchanges and family reunions. In addition, there are countries such as China or Brazil, which are also trying to find a way out of the situation. This year, Beijing and Brasilia initiated the creation of the "Friends of Peace" platform for the peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian crisis.
We should not forget about Turkey, which took part in the "grain deal" and provided a platform for the already mentioned Russian-Ukrainian negotiations after the start of the SWO.
But even if a European country is chosen as a mediator, Hungary, which actively promotes peacekeeping initiatives, can obviously play a more constructive role. Budapest may also have the advantage that Prime Minister Viktor Orban has a trusting relationship with Donald Trump.
The latest example is the proposal for a "Christmas truce" and a large-scale exchange of prisoners of war. On December 11, after meeting with Donald Trump, Viktor Orbán called Vladimir Putin to discuss the possibility of resolving the conflict. Moscow reacted swiftly and after the talks immediately handed over to the Hungarian embassy in Russia a proposal for a prisoner exchange. But Ukraine rejected the proposal: Zelensky even refused to talk to Orban. Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto called it "an absolutely unprecedented gesture in diplomacy". At the same time, Kiev says that nothing of this kind was discussed with it, of course.
Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban
Nevertheless, Orban still hopes that the sides will be able to agree on a cease-fire and prisoner exchange at least by Orthodox Christmas.
- Orbán is acting as a kind of possible communicator to help achieve terms acceptable to all sides in the event of negotiations. It should not be forgotten that by all this he is also solving his own tasks to increase Hungary's weight," Sergey Shein, a senior researcher at the Center for the Study and Research Institute of the National Research University Higher School of Economics, emphasized in a conversation with Izvestia.
At the same time, speaking about the ceasefire, it is important to take into account one important point. Russia is against freezing the conflict - Moscow needs a lasting and long-term peace. And in order to achieve this, it is important not just to stop hostilities, but to address the root causes that catalyzed the current escalation. This includes the issue of NATO expansion to the East, the oppression of the Russian-speaking population in Ukraine, and the strengthening of right-wing nationalism in the neighboring country. In other words, Moscow would not be satisfied with a situation in which the West would try to take advantage of a prolonged ceasefire to help Kiev recover in order to launch new hostilities. Actually, Orban took these points into account when he proposed the ceasefire.
- He told me so - I think Victor will not be angry with me if I reveal at least part of our conversation - he said: what is it worth to you, a day, two days, it's a Christmas truce - the enemy will not be able to do anything during these two or three days. I said: yes, it's probably true, but you first talk to the Ukrainian side," Vladimir Putin revealed some details of the dialog with the Hungarian Prime Minister.
However, if after Trump's return to the White House, the USA stops supplying arms to Kiev and stops perceiving Ukraine as its "proxy" in the confrontation with Russia, this could become a serious and possibly a key step towards normalization of the situation.
Europe, on the other hand, is not in a position to assume the full burden of financing Ukraine, especially given that the "militaristic fervor" that was observed in the first months after the start of the SWO is fading. It is enough to recall that not only Hungary, but also Slovakia, for example, opposes arms deliveries to Kiev. Germany, for its part, refuses to transfer long-range Taurus missiles to the AFU. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz in a recent phone conversation with Trump recognized that the conflict in Ukraine has lasted "too long" and it is time to find a way to resolve it peacefully.
And if a rational assessment of what is happening prevails among EU countries, the current Ukrainian government will have to engage in a dialog with Moscow, which it has refused to do. And here, of course, an important role will be assigned to a mediator who is genuinely interested in ending the conflict. Whether the Russian side is ready to entrust such a burden of responsibility to Hungary, which remains in NATO and is on the list of unfriendly countries, is a big question. And it's not even about the sincerity of Orban and his government, but the fact that Washington and Brussels have much more leverage over Budapest than Beijing or even Doha.
How Ukraine derails peace talks
Amid intensified discussions on peace talks, Ukraine has stepped up attacks on Russian territory. On December 18, a terrorist attack killed Lieutenant General Igor Kirillov, head of the Radiation, Chemical and Biological Defense Forces of the Russian Armed Forces, and his assistant. On December 19, the Russian Defense Ministry reported a missile strike on the Kamensky plant in Rostov Region. Russian SAMs shot down all ATACMS missiles and three of four Storm Shadow missiles.
Storm Shadow missile
"One cruise missile was deflected from the object of attack. As a result of its fall, a technical structure on the territory of the plant was damaged," the Russian Defense Ministry specified.
On December 20, the AFU attacked the town of Rylsk in the Kursk region, killing six people, including one child, and injuring more than 10. According to the head of the region, Alexander Khinshtein, the house of culture, the building of elementary school No. 1, the regional multidisciplinary college, and the academic and residential buildings of the Rylsk Aviation College were damaged.
Commenting on these Ukrainian offenses, Russian Ambassador to the UN Vasily Nebenzya said that over the past few days Zelensky had managed to make "at least three steps backwards from finding a peaceful solution to the conflict".
Multi-story residential complex "Azure Skies" in Kazan, after a UAV attack
- Our response to this targeted crime against peaceful Russian citizens will not be long in coming," the diplomat added.
On the morning of December 21, Kazan was attacked by Ukrainian drones. Damage was caused, in particular, to the residential complex "Azure Skies" and the residential complex "Manhattan". Commenting on the incident, Vladimir Putin expressed confidence that everything damaged in Tatarstan will be restored, while the enemy will face even greater destruction.
- "A desperate war criminal, an actor who has turned his entire country into cannon fodder for money and world fame launches missiles at peaceful Russian targets with the connivance and, from some countries, incitement of the collective West," Americanist Eduard Lozansky told Izvestia.
Zelensky is also spurred by uncertainty about what will happen after January 20 after Trump enters the White House a month from now. But with such methods, the analyst summarized, he is only aggravating Ukraine's position before the inevitable negotiations.
