Betting will do: what to watch out for for investors in 2025
Investments next year may become a much more difficult challenge for market participants than before, brokers told Izvestia. The Central Bank's rigid approach, geopolitical risks and ruble exchange rate instability create a negative impact on stocks, and the probability of bond defaults will increase due to the high debt burden on companies. On the other hand, if the Bank of Russia manages to fight inflation, the key rate will start to be lowered - and this will support the market. Experts believe that the ruble exchange rate should consolidate above 100 per dollar, but the MosBirch index may well exceed 3000 points under favorable conditions. What to watch out for in 2025 - in the material of "Izvestia".
What investors should pay attention to
In the last week of December will be not so many corporate events, noted in "Tsifra Broker". So, on Monday, Rosneft will decide on the payment of dividends, and the shares of the investment holding SFI is expected to slump after the payment of dividends.
On Wednesday, men's clothing chain Henderson will share its results for November 2024, on Thursday the retail chain Magnit will decide on dividends, and on Friday there will be a meeting of Ozon shareholders on the issue of moving the company from Cyprus to Russia.
Investors should start preparing for next year. It is likely that 2025 could be tougher than 2024, Tsifra Broker told Izvestia. Russia enters the new year with a high key rate of 21%, which is tapering demand in the economy. In addition, a number of companies are facing liquidity problems.
Next year it is important for investors to closely monitor the dynamics of the key rate, noted in GPB. The level of rates not only on loans, but also on bonds depends on this indicator.
In the first quarter of 2025 is still possible growth of the key rate (in a negative scenario - up to 25%), even though the Central Bank did not increase it on December 20, said economist Andrei Barkhota. This will additionally strengthen the flow of investor funds from bonds to stocks, which will affect the market performance.
In addition, it is important for investors to monitor the consumer price index, on which depends the decision of the Central Bank on the key rate, as well as the dynamics of lending, the balance of payments (the ratio of exports and imports) and the unemployment rate, specified in GPB.
Investors should regularly refer to the financial indicators of companies whose securities they are interested in, said Egor Diashov, CEO of investment company "Dialot". Next year it will be especially important to follow the news agenda in order to own the situation and react to changes in time, as the risks in the debt market are increasing.
Traditionally, issuers pay dividends on shares in the middle and at the end of the calendar year, GPB said. However, the bulk of them will be paid in summer, noted in "Tsifra Broker". It is important to remember that on the threshold of payments shares will grow in price, but after the cutoffs there will be a "dividend gap" - they will decline to previous values.
What risks investors should consider in 2025
- The main factor that investors should pay attention to in reports now is the debt load of companies. As the interest rate rises, it requires more and more careful scrutiny," GPB said.
Defaults on high-yield bonds, coupons on which now reach up to 39%, from small companies with high debt load are quite likely, confirmed Mikhail Nikonov, Director for Corporate Ratings at Expert RA. The situation is affected not so much by the extreme growth of the key rate as by the duration of its maintenance at a high level, said GPB. Because of this, many companies will find it difficult to service their debt, and as a result they may refuse to make bond payments.
In addition, the "red" zone includes companies with high debt load and small assets - these indicators can be seen in their reports, said analyst of FG Finam Nikita Borodanov. As a rule, small companies have a lower level of corporate governance. In order to minimize risks, it is now worth not to consider issuers with credit rating lower than A- (moderately high creditworthiness).
To protect yourself from risks, you should follow a more conservative strategy, brokers warned.
What will happen to the ruble exchange rate and the Moscow Exchange Index in 2025?
The key rate reduction can be expected no earlier than summer 2025, provided there are no new shocks, said economist Andrei Barkhota. The risks of stagflation remain significant, so the minimum level of the key rate by the end of 2025 will not be lower than 12%.
The dynamics of the RGBI index of government bonds will depend on the Central Bank's policy. Gazprombank Investments believes that it will be volatile and actively change depending on new inflation data. Nevertheless, it is in 2025 that there is a prospect of the key rate reduction, and this is a positive for the government bond index, as it will mean a reduction in the debt burden on the Russian budget.
The ruble is unlikely to strengthen significantly next year, GPB said. In the baseline scenario, it will be worth about 105-110 per US dollar, 109-115 per euro and 13.9-14.6 per yuan.
The exchange rate of the national currency will strongly depend on the cost of energy resources, said Nikolay Dudchenko, analyst at Finam FG. In the near future, Brent oil will be traded at $80 per barrel - this is above the level of the end of 2024. However, there is a possibility that prices may go down if the global economy slows down rapidly - this will be a negative for the ruble and its exchange rate may jump above 120 per dollar.
In Q1 2025, the most important event will be the inauguration of the new US President Donald Trump, Finam added. His first steps at the head of the new administration of the White House may strongly affect the situation in the world. In particular, any news on the Ukrainian conflict can affect the quotations of the Russian market and the ruble exchange rate.
Cryptocurrency is also worth watching. Since Trump's election victory, the bitcoin rate has been growing until it broke through the historic high of $106 thousand, recalled Yaroslav Kabakov, Director of Strategy at Finam Investment Company. However, forecasts on the future dynamics of the crypto vary - it is possible that due to the tightening of control, its quotes will correct. Investors should carefully assess the risks of this market, because it is still very volatile.
In general, the Russian stock market is in for mixed times. Strengthening sanctions, key rate hikes and the likelihood of falling oil prices could be a negative for the MosBirch index, which is largely made up of exporters - it may remain near today's levels of 2,400-2,500 points.
Nevertheless, its fair indicator is around 2950 points, and if the Central Bank's policy is softened, it may rise to 3200-3300 points, Gazprombank Investments concluded.
