Moving forward: what are the prospects for the Russian car market in 2025
The coming year will be difficult for the automobile market, analysts and dealers believe. Many experts agree that sales of new cars will be lower than in 2024. Izvestia" found out how much the car market may "sag" and what factors will be determinant for sales of new car models this year.
Three ways
According to the analytical agency Avtostat, almost 1.45 million new passenger cars were sold in Russia in the first 11 months of 2024. The final results of the year will be known later, tentatively in mid-January. However, it is already obvious that last year the market took the bar of 1.5 million cars sold, and the result is likely to be about 1.6 million cars.
In 2025 it will be problematic to achieve the same results, experts believe. Thus, "Avtostat" compiled three scenarios of developments depending on a number of economic and political factors. According to the optimistic scenario, in 2025, sales of new cars will stop at the level of last year, and about 1.6 million cars will be sold. A more realistic scenario envisages a 10% reduction in sales (to about 1.43 million). In the most unfavorable development of events, 1.27 million new cars may be sold, which will be 20% below the results of 2024.
According to Sergey Tselikov, Director General of Avtostat, the automobile market will continue to be pressured by such negative factors as inflation, another increase in the utilization fee, and a high key rate. At the same time, they are pushing buyers on the principle of "buy today, otherwise tomorrow will be more expensive", he believes. At the same time, the expert believes that sales will not fall below the pessimistic forecast under any circumstances. Sergei Tselikov admits that the market may even grow slightly compared to 2024, "but for this to happen, political factors must be realized.
The National Agency for Industrial Information (NAPI) has also prepared three scenarios for the development of the car market in 2025. However, unlike Avtostat's forecasts, they all assume a decline in sales. Even in the optimistic scenario (the key rate decreases by several percent during the year, GDP increases by 1.9%, inflation is 4.5%), the number of new cars sold decreases by 7.9% to 1.47 million units at the end of the year). The baseline scenario, which assumes that the key rate remains at last year's level, GDP grows by 1.6% and inflation by 5%, implies a 10.1% decline in the car market (to 1.4 million cars). According to NAPI's pessimistic forecast (key rate increases by a few percent, GDP grows by 1.4%, and inflation compares to 6.2%), car sales will decline to 1.31 million units (-14.85% year-on-year).
Downward trend
Car dealers are also of the opinion that new car sales this year will be lower than last year. According to Renat Tyukteev, Deputy General Director for New Car Sales at Avilon AG, the market is expected to decline by 12-18%.
- If sales for 2024 amounted to about 1.6 million cars, then in 2025, according to our forecast, 1.3-1.4 million units will be sold. If there is an increase in the key rate of the Central Bank, sales of new cars will decrease by at least 15%. At the same time, the average price of a car will increase by 7-10% during the year," he told Izvestia.
The decline in sales began in November last year, it will continue in the first quarter of 2025, believes the general director of GC "AutoSpecCenter" Andrei Terlyukevich. According to him, the tightening of monetary policy made leasing products for legal entities unprofitable, which led to a reduction in corporate sales, and high interest rates on loans sharply limited the range of buyers among individuals. With further growth of the key rate, the market is expected to cool down significantly, as well as difficulties at dealers, emphasized the general director of AutoSpecCenter.
- Sales in 2025 are likely to be 10-20% lower than in 2024," Andrei Terlyukevich told Izvestia.
Independent experts also agree that there will be no growth in sales of new cars in 2025. According to Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of "Za Rulem" magazine, they will decrease by about 10% by the end of the year. However, such a scenario is possible only if the current economic conditions persist, he specifies.
- If the ruble exchange rate continues to fall and the key rate is increased, the decrease in the number of cars sold may be more significant," Maxim Kadakov believes.
Igor Morzharetto, a partner of the analytical agency "Avtostat", however, believes that even if the current economic conditions persist, car sales in the coming year may decline much more.
- I think that the market will shrink by at least 20%. The most realistic scenario is 1.2-1.25 million cars. And this is provided that there will not be any serious shocks, such as a sharp collapse of the ruble or other negative economic factors. Otherwise, the market may drop to 1 million cars sold," he shared his forecast with Izvestia.
Risk factors
Renat Tyukteev believes that the main factors that will influence the automobile market this year include price growth, lower demand and tighter credit conditions.
- Russians should prepare for the fact that buying a car on credit will become even less affordable. Banks have already increased requirements for borrowers at the same time as interest rates have increased," he warns.
The market will also be affected by the next stage of increase in the utilization fee from January 1, says Maxim Kadakov. This will lead to another wave of growth in car prices. In his opinion, the effect of the January indexation of the utilization fee will be noticeable closer to spring.
Meanwhile, the car market in the new year will be a little more predictable than in the past year, says Igor Morzharetto. This is due to the adoption of a schedule of indexation of the utilization fee.
- Last year there were several factors, the influence of which on the market could only be guessed. The main ones were the key rate, the ruble-yuan exchange rate and the size of the increase in the utilization fee. Now the last factor is known, indexation parameters and dates of all stages are defined. Thus, the increase in the utilization fee is a known constant, which to some extent simplifies the forecasting of how the car market will develop," he said.
The main problems in the car market are related to the increase in the key rate, lower loan approvals and rising prices due to the increase in the utilization fee and currency fluctuations, said Daniil Shkurygin, director of development and sales at Auto.ru Business. In his opinion, even those buyers who are ready to take a loan to buy a car will face difficulties.
- As for the used car market, in the first half of this year the demand for used cars decreased and has not recovered since then. At present, there is no reason to expect a recovery in demand for used cars in 2025, at least if the key rate is maintained or further increased. However, price increases for used cars will be more moderate than for new cars. The high cost of cash forces sellers to look for ways to accelerate the turnover of cars, and this will restrain price growth," he told Izvestia.
Of the experts interviewed by Izvestia, only Irina Frank, managing director of Frank Auto, sees prospects for growth in new car sales in 2025. In her opinion, this is due to the fact that approximately in the middle of the year the key rate will begin to decline, and people will become more active in buying real estate and cars.
- Potential buyers will stop keeping money on deposits and start spending it. Currently, about Br13 trillion is on private deposits at interest. And most of these funds will be used for large purchases. Next year is likely to be challenging for the automobile industry," she believes.
