Special agreement required: Iran seeks to restart nuclear deal because of sanctions
Iran is ready to resume talks on its nuclear program - the country is seeking a deal to lift sanctions amid socio-economic problems. The Iranian authorities have already repeatedly sent signals about the possibility of dialog with the US on this topic. However, it is unlikely that the nuclear deal will be restored in the near future due to Western demands, a high-ranking source told Izvestia. How the US line will change under Donald Trump's administration in relation to the resuscitation of the agreement - in the material of "Izvestia".
Tehran seeks the removal of Western sanctions
Iran seeks to resume dialogue on its nuclear program, hoping to ease the sanctions pressure, which has significantly worsened the socio-economic situation in the country. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), which is more commonly known as the nuclear deal, was signed in 2015 by Iran, Russia, the US, the UK, France, China and Germany. It involved lifting sanctions against Tehran in exchange for it limiting its nuclear program. However, in 2018, then US President Donald Trump unilaterally withdrew from the JCPOA unilaterally, reimposing US restrictions on Tehran.
US President Trump announces his decision on the Iran nuclear deal at the White House in Washington, DC
- The Iran nuclear deal is unlikely to be renewed anytime soon. What format will the discussion take? What the West is again offering Tehran is to do twice as much as the other participants. Nothing has changed. We don't think it will work," a high-ranking source told Izvestia.
Meanwhile, International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) Director General Rafael Grossi said in an interview with Italian news agency ANSA that Iran is enriching uranium to levels "close to military levels" and is rapidly moving toward becoming a nuclear state. According to him, the JCPOA has lost relevance.
Grossi attributes his position to the fact that the 2015 nuclear deal was designed for older generations of centrifuges to enrich uranium, while the Islamic Republic already has centrifuges that produce more nuclear fuel with less equipment.
Iran has begun installing advanced centrifuges at its main uranium enrichment facility
This rhetoric of Grossi in line with the Western approach is displeasing to Iran. After all, after years of stagnant negotiations due to the US withdrawal from the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action in 2018, Tehran has signaled its intention to find a compromise with the global community. Mohammad Eslami, head of the Atomic Energy Organization of Iran (AEOI), urged the agency to remain impartial, stressing that the agreement includes responsibilities of other parties as well.
Talks about the resumption of talks on restoring the nuclear deal began after a personnel reshuffle made by Iranian President Massoud Pezeshkian. Thus, Mohammad Javad Zarif, who served as Iran's foreign minister from 2013 to 2021, was appointed the republic's vice president for strategic affairs. Zarif was the main ideologist of negotiations on the nuclear deal and headed the team of diplomats involved in the development of the agreement. Zarif's former deputy Abbas Araqchi, an experienced diplomat who served on Iran's nuclear negotiating team, became foreign minister.
In late November, talks resumed in Geneva between representatives of the "Euro-troika" (Great Britain, Germany and France) and Iran. Reuters, citing European diplomats, reported that the West wants to pave the way for agreements before Trump returns to the U.S. presidency.
Impact of sanctions on Iran's economy
Iran is under the impact of Western sanctions, which limits its access to international markets. Against this backdrop, Tehran is facing high inflation and unemployment, negatively affecting living standards, especially among the poor. Nevertheless, the economic model ensures survival in the face of external pressures, although it does not guarantee an increase in the welfare of the population.
- The situation both economically and socially in Iran is quite difficult and one of the reasons for this has been, of course, the harsh sanctions that Trump imposed back in 2018, which have been tightened from time to time. " These sanctions are hampering Iran's movement towards prosperity," Vladimir Sazhin, a senior researcher at the Center for the Study of Near and Middle Eastern Countries at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
In his opinion, the main task of Iran's leadership is to reduce the impact of sanctions, if not to lift them all.
At his first meeting with the new cabinet, Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei insisted that curbing inflation and lowering prices should be the government's top priority. Pezeshkian's approach to addressing the economy is based in part on lifting the sanctions regime imposed on Iran. To that end, the president has repeatedly expressed a willingness to negotiate with the West. Iranian officials have sent signals since Trump's election victory that they are willing to engage in diplomatic efforts on the nuclear program with the new U.S. administration.
Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei
- While at the General Assembly in New York, President Pezeshkian hinted at Iran's willingness to negotiate. I want to emphasize that there is a covert dialogue going on in Oman, not direct, in general, quite serious achievements are there, but it's all a gentleman's agreement. To translate this into legal documents, of course, we need negotiations. And Iran is ready, but I am sure that the United States will not do anything until January 21, i.e. until the day the new president takes office," Vladimir Sazhin told Izvestia.
Iran's mild reaction to the events in Lebanon, Gaza, and Palestine is partly due to this. Israel has effectively defeated the so-called Iranian axis of resistance, and the fall of Bashar al-Assad's government has cut off arms supply routes to the Shiite movement Hezbollah. Iran, for its part, has limited itself to statements, fearing a military escalation with Israel.
According to Vladimir Sazhin, a few strikes by IDF super-precision missiles against Iranian ports, airfields and energy facilities, or even nuclear facilities, could lead to economic chaos in Iran. In the event of a serious military confrontation with Israel, Iran may cease to exist as a single country at all, the expert believes.
Firefighters work at the site of an explosion in Tehran
- In such circumstances, separate regions like Azerbaijan (a region in northwestern Iran. - Ed.), Kurdistan, Khuzestan and Baluchistan may declare their independence and establish their own authorities, and in this situation the regime will simply exhaust itself as a unifying system. Of course, this is understood, I think so, not only by the president, but also by the supreme leader," Vladimir Sazhin summarized.
The US course under Trump on the Iranian nuclear dossier
After current President Joe Biden came to power in the United States, Washington decided to consider a return to the JCPOA. To this end, negotiations to restore the dealbegan in Vienna in 2021. At that time, they ended inconclusively due to diametrically opposed positions. The US insisted on the phased lifting of sanctions in exchange for Iran's full return to its obligations under the nuclear agreement. The Iranian authorities, in turn, proceeded on the assumption that the United States should be the first to lift all restrictions imposed by the Trump administration on Iran.
Much will now depend on the approach that a future US administration will take on the Iranian nuclear dossier.
- A reanimation of the anti-Iran strategy of the first term of Donald Trump's presidency is unlikely (for example, on January 3, 2020, Iranian high-ranking general Qassem Suleimani was killed in Baghdad in a targeted U.S. Air Force airstrike. - Ed.). Beyond the use of military measures, Washington has few new serious levers of pressure directly on Tehran. The tasks of curbing Iran's influence in the region and the development of its missile and nuclear programs will most likely be solved by non-violent means (primarily sanctions)," Alexei Davydov, a senior researcher at the Primakov Center for North American Studies at the Russian Academy of Sciences, told Izvestia.
Poster depicting the late Iranian General Qasem Suleimani
According to the expert, the primary task of the United States in this context will be to ensure the security of its main ally in the region - Israel, including within the framework of continuing the process of its diplomatic recognition among its neighbors.
- In the same paradigm, the issue of Iran's nuclear program will also be considered. Iran's development of means of delivery for weapons of mass destruction will continue to be in the focus of Washington's attention, but it is extremely difficult to predict what steps the new administration may take in commissioning and even more so in using such weapons because of the high risk of military escalation throughout the region," explained Alexey Davydov.
To a large extent, such potential steps will also depend on the logic of the US global strategy to contain China, as excessive involvement in regional crises and conflicts will divert attention and resources from Washington's main foreign policy line against Beijing's growing influence, the specialist summarized.
