- Статьи
- Economy
- Great later: authorities postpone a third of budget expenditures to the end of the year
Great later: authorities postpone a third of budget expenditures to the end of the year
The authorities have left more than a third of budget expenditures for the last months of the year. In October-December, the treasury's spending will amount to almost 14 trillion, or 35% of the entire plan for 2024, the Audit Chamber estimated. The problem regularly arises before the New Year. This time it is especially urgent because of the already high inflation. Experts believe that the Central Bank will take into account large budget spending, making a decision on the key rate on December 20 - this is an argument in favor of raising the rate. In addition, the uneven use of public funds increases the risks of a deficit in the treasury and a slowdown in the economy. Whether it is necessary to change the distribution of expenditures by month and how - in the material of "Izvestia".
Why one third of budget expenditures are postponed
Federal budget expenditures in October-December 2024 will amount to a record 13.9 trillion rubles. Of the total amount of spending of the treasury is 34.8%, that is, more than a third of the funds will be sent to the economy in recent months. Such dynamics indicates the uneven use of public money during the year, according to the report of the Accounts Chamber (AC) on budget execution for January-September 2024 (Izvestia has studied it).
Thus, in the first three quarters of this year, the percentage of spending was 22-23% (about 8.5-9 trillion for three months), the auditors calculated. In 2023, there were comparable dynamics, and October-December also accounted for 34.5% (11.2 trillion).
Already by mid-December, the level of budget spending is higher than last year and amounts to 35.5 trillion, or 88.6% of all spending, the press service of the Ministry of Finance told Izvestia. By this time in 2023, 28.6 trillion (87.9%) had been spent.
- The irregularity of spending during the year is a typical situation, characteristic not only for 2024. For example, the average percentage of spending unfulfilled by the fourth quarter for the last eight years was about 34%. The exception was in 2022, when more than 37% of funds remained to be spent by the end of the year. However, this was due to an increase in the total amount of spending by 8.2 trillion," recalled Alla Chalova, Associate Professor of the Department of State and Municipal Finance at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University.
As a rule, at the end of the year, December is the month with the most spending, confirmed the Ministry of Finance. This is due to the transfer of salaries, allowances (various allowances for civil servants) and pensions (including for January 2025). And also - payments for servicing the state debt (they are determined by issue documents) and the completion of settlements on state contracts, the ministry explained.
The Accounts Chamber also added that the expenditures postponed to the end of the year are associated with the late distribution of funds by agencies, as well as the untimely provision of money to the regions.
In addition, a large amount of spending was postponed to the end of the year, as the authorities revised the budget parameters in the summer, added Anna Chalova. She specified: compared to the original plan, the projected expenditures of the treasury in 2024 increased by 2.7 trillion during the revision.
They are associated with unplanned expenditures, most of which will go to subsidized mortgages and servicing of government debt due to the growth of the key debt, as well as for the needs of law enforcement agencies, said Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam.
According to the financial plan, revenues this year will amount to 36.1 trillion, expenditures - 39.4 trillion, respectively, the deficit - 3.3 trillion. At the same time, the spending limit has been increased to 40.1 trillion on the portal "Electronic Budget.
What does uneven spending of budget money lead to?
Uneven spending negatively affects the budget process and the price level. A significant amount of money is "injected" into the economy in a short period of time, which causes inflation and the amount of unutilized funds to grow, said Alla Chalova from Plekhanov Russian Economic University. As a result, this leads to an increase in the key rate, which at the same time restrains the cost of goods and services less and less, added Andrei Barkhota, PhD in Economics.
Head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina noted that for the management of monetary policy is more important than the dynamics of expenditures for the year as a whole, recalled Olga Belenkaya from Finam. However, according to her, the regulator also takes into account temporary fluctuations in spending, so their uniformity is an important factor.
Chairman of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation Elvira Nabiullina
And in 2024, it may have a special impact - inflation is already high. In November, in annualized terms, according to Rosstat, it reached 8.88%. Because of this, as Izvestia wrote earlier, the market is waiting for another increase in the key rate to 23% at the meeting on December 20. However, deputies and business in advance criticize the tightening of the policy.
On December 18, the head of the party "Just Russia - For Truth" Sergei Mironov openly opposed the policy of the head of the Central Bank and questioned the impact of the key rate on prices.
- This is sabotage. This is the fulfillment of the decree of the International Monetary Fund. <...> Mrs. Nabiullina, since July last year you started raising the discount rate. How much has inflation increased? Twice as much. Hey, Mrs. Nabiullina, are you somehow adequate or not? - said the deputy.
The Accounts Chamber and the Central Bank did not answer Izvestia's question about how seriously the increased budget spending at the end of the year affects inflation growth. However, now the Bank of Russia has a week of silence before the decision on the key rate.
Natalia Milchakova, a leading analyst at Freedom Finance Global, believes that it is possible to fight price growth not only through monetary methods (the key rate), but also through reasonable planning of expenditures.
- It is very difficult to achieve completely even spending of budget funds within a year. It is easier to smoothly transform the structure of spending in the direction of increasing advances in human capital, education, healthcare and technology. Because of the great role of the social factor in these areas and the lack of mass production, inflation will be significantly lower due to the smooth transmission of cash flows," believes Andrei Barkhota.
The acuteness of this issue has already been reduced when it was allowed to carry out public procurement without reference to the calendar year, said Vladimir Klimanov, Director of the Center for Regional Policy of the IPEI of the Presidential Academy. He added that the problem has not been solved to the end - all reporting and significant amounts of funding are timed to 12 months, which creates such arrhythmicity. The authorities can finalize the bureaucratic mechanism to smooth out spending spikes.
