More but less: economic growth will slow to 1.5% in 2025
The economy will grow by 1.5% in 2025, according to the Izvestia consensus forecast. Earlier, in September, the Ministry of Economic Development forecasted GDP growth of 2.5% in 2025. Analysts are lowering their estimates because of the outstripping growth in 2024, as well as because of the high key rate, which may again hit a record next Friday. The looming global trade wars will also play their role. However, the Russian economy will be supported by the growth of manufacturing production, including the military-industrial complex, as well as import substitution. What will happen to wages and inflation in such conditions - in the material of "Izvestiya".
What will be the economic growth in Russia in 2025?
All 15 experts and market participants interviewed by Izvestia agreed that the economy will grow in 2025. Four believe that the growth will be 2% or more, eight experts forecast a range of 1-2%. Three analysts expect GDP to rise within 1%. Thus, the average value of the consensus forecast is about 1.5%.
The most positive assessment was given in the investment bank "Sinara" - an increase of at least 2.5%. And the most negative - in "BKS Investment World", where they expect about zero growth. At the same time, in its September macro forecast, the Ministry of Economic Development envisioned a 2.5% increase in the economy in 2025.
In 2024, GDP is expected to grow by 3.9-4%, President Vladimir Putin said at the investment forum "Russia Calling!". Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak also cited an estimate of 3.9%. Despite external shocks, in particular, sanctions pressure, closure of export markets and disruption of logistics chains, the Russian economy in recent years shows steady growth, the rate of which is higher than the indicators of European countries, said Alexander Novak.
At the same time, Central Bank head Elvira Nabiullina has repeatedly emphasized over the past year that the Russian economy is overheated - that is, the production of goods and services exceeds the so-called potential GDP. That is why experts' forecasts for next year are lower than for 2024 - the economy will slow down from its record pace and come to equilibrium.
Risks for the Russian economy in 2025
The main factor of uncertainty remains geopolitics - the structure of the economy and public finances will depend on the vector of its development, believes Vladimir Evstifeev, head of the analytical department of Zenit Bank.
Also now the risks include the expected decisions of the new US administration on tariff regulation. US President-elect Donald Trump has previously announced his plans to impose additional import duties on the state's largest trading partners - in particular, 25% - on all goods from Canada and Mexico, 10% - on products from China. This could have a negative impact on the global economy as a whole. And, in particular, to reduce demand and, consequently, prices for oil and other types of energy carriers, said Dmitry Golubkov, Director for Macroeconomic Analysis of OTP Bank.
The introduction of foreign trade duties will inevitably lead to lower prices for commodities around the world, as well as to increased activity of foreign producers in the Russian market - up to dumping on their part, added Andrei Chelyuskin, Associate Professor at the Institute of Social Sciences of the Presidential Academy.
The main domestic risk will be further tightening of monetary policy, believes Freedom Finance Global analyst Vladimir Chernov. Now the key rate is 21%, but on December 20, the Central Bank may raise it to 23%, Izvestia wrote earlier. If inflation will accelerate faster than the planned values, high lending rates will not only remain in 2025, but also increase, believes Vladimir Chernov. According to the regulator, in November, price growth amounted to 8.9% per annum.
As the head of the Central Bank Elvira Nabiullina noted at the forum "Russia Calling!", the "braking path" to the target of 4% will take the whole of next year and even partially 2026. This will be facilitated by high interest rates, which will cool demand. The economic slowdown will be coupled with a slowdown in prices.
Another constraint on economic growth in 2024 was the lack of labor resources, and it will continue next year, said Vladimir Yeremkin, a researcher at the Laboratory of Structural Research of the IPEI of the Presidential Academy.
What will support Russia's GDP in 2025
- The main driver of the economy next year will remain domestic demand, which will continue to grow due to the increase in household incomes and investment activity of the state and business, - said Denis Popov, managing expert of the center of analytics and expertise of PSB.
The economic growth will also be ensured by the government support, said Svetlana Frumina, Acting Head of the Department of World Financial Markets and Fintech at Plekhanov Russian Economic University. Today, the industries for whose products the state order is received are growing quite dynamically - manufacturing industry, electronic engineering, defense industry, food and petrochemical industries.
Import substitution, the development of parallel imports and the restructuring of logistics routes with access to new markets, mainly Asian ones, can also support economic growth, believes Vladimir Chernov from Freedom Finance Global.
How wages will grow in 2025
The tension in the labor market is evidenced by the accelerated growth of wages, reminded Olga Belenkaya, Head of Macroeconomic Analysis at Finam. According to the Ministry of Economic Development, real wages in January-September in 2024 grew by 9% year-on-year.
- In 2025, it is likely that the problem of staff shortage will remain, but the demand for workers may not grow as fast due to the expected slowdown in economic growth against the background of high interest rates and the announced normalization of fiscal policy," explained Olga Belenkaya.
She added that the slowdown in demand in the economy, higher income tax and high interest rates on loans will force companies to optimize costs and limit their ability to raise wages.
At the same time, the experts admitted that the growth of real wages in 2025 may also be double-digit against the background of high inflation rates in Russia and the acute shortage of workers.
