On a settled basis: Moscow and Budapest to continue consultations on Ukraine
The issue of using Hungary as a platform for negotiations on the settlement of the conflict in Ukraine was not discussed during the recent dialog between Russian leader Vladimir Putin and Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told Izvestiya. Russia, meanwhile, fully supports Budapest's efforts to find a peaceful resolution to the crisis. But not everyone in Europe is looking for peace. On December 12, French President Emmanuel Macron arrived in Poland to discuss the possible dispatch of Western contingents to Ukraine. The expert community notes that against the backdrop of Trump's desire to leave this conflict to Kiev's European allies, France will seek to create a military alliance in Eastern Europe that will operate independently of NATO. About who and what prevents a peaceful end to the confrontation in Ukraine, - in the material "Izvestia".
Viktor Orban's peace mission
While Hungary's presidency in the EU is coming to an end, the country's Prime Minister Viktor Orban has made new efforts to achieve a peaceful resolution of the Ukrainian conflict. After meeting with U.S. President-elect Donald Trump at his Florida residence on December 9, he called Russian President Vladimir Putin on the 11th. Following the conversation, Orban announced that Ukraine had been offered a ceasefire for Christmas and a large-scale prisoner exchange, but Zelensky rejected the offer. "We did everything we could!" - the politician wrote on social media. On December 12, the Kremlin confirmed that Hungary had indeed made such initiatives.
- On the same day, Russia's Federal Security Service handed over our prisoner exchange proposals to the Hungarian Embassy in Moscow. However, judging by Zelensky's reaction on social media, as well as his entourage, the Ukrainian side rejected all of Viktor Orban's proposals," Dmitry Peskov commented.
At the same time, the presidential spokesman noted that "Russia has never rejected peace talks and has repeatedly declared its readiness to resume them on the basis of the Istanbul agreements of 2022".
- We assume that consultations on the establishment of peace will continue. The Russian side fully supports Viktor Orban's efforts aimed at finding a peaceful settlement and resolving humanitarian issues related to the prisoner exchange," he added.
At the same time, when asked by Izvestia whether Hungary could become a suitable platform for peace talks between Russia and Ukraine and whether this was discussed during the telephone conversation between the heads of state, Dmitry Peskov answered in the negative.
- No. It was not discussed. There are no negotiations yet," he said.
Recall that in 2023, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto said: Budapest is ready to provide a platform for negotiations between Moscow and Kiev.
In any case, after Orban's words in the office of the head of Ukraine hastened to say that she did not authorize Hungary to negotiate. At the same time, Volodymyr Zelensky deliberately thanked Donald Trump and other European leaders for working together with Kiev to find "correct and strong solutions for the sake of real peace."
Viktor Orban was well aware that peace in Ukraine did not depend on him, but he still felt it necessary to try to contribute to the settlement, Hungarian expert Gabor Styre explained to Izvestia.
- Obviously, there are three factors that are preventing a settlement. The first is the European elites who want to win this confrontation. The second is that relations between Ukraine and Hungary are, to put it mildly, cold, mainly because of Kiev's policy towards Transcarpathian Hungarians. The third is that Russia has not yet achieved the goals of the SWO. But Orban has been doing everything possible," the expert explained.
What Trump thinks about the Ukrainian settlement
Zelensky met with Trump and Macron on December 7 in Paris, where he arrived on the occasion of the opening of the Notre Dame de Paris Cathedral. Then at the end of a half-hour conversation, the Ukrainian president noted in social networks "determination" Trump and the desire of the parties "to end this war as quickly and fairly as possible". However, as Reuters later wrote, Trump told Zelensky and Macron that there should be an immediate ceasefire in Ukraine and move to negotiations. At the same time, a Ukrainian source told the agency that the lack of a detailed plan on Trump's part "has created a growing sense of uncertainty in Kiev." In turn, in the entourage of the future US President emphasized that his goal is to establish personal contacts with all parties and then decide on further actions.
It is noteworthy that the day before, on December 6, the head of the office of the Ukrainian President Andriy Yermak visited the estate of Donald Trump Mar-a-Lago in the state of Florida, where he met with members of the future presidential administration. If Ukrainian media are to be believed, Trump's team took a cool attitude to Yermak's idea to conduct military operations against Russia before reaching the 2022 borders. It also took a very negative attitude to the idea of Ukraine joining NATO.
This was confirmed on December 12 by the US newspaper The Wall Street Journal. Thus, the publication writes that at a meeting in Paris, Trump told Zelensky and Macron that he does not support Ukrainian membership in NATO, but at the same time wants to see a strong, well-armed Ukraine after the cessation of hostilities.
Trump also said Europe should play a major role in protecting and supporting Ukraine.
"He wants a European military presence in Ukraine to oversee the maintenance of the ceasefire..... He did not rule out US support for the arrangement, but US troops will not be involved," the newspaper reported.
Again in his interview with the American magazine Time, Donald Trump did not reveal details of his plan. He noted that he wants to reach an agreement on Ukraine, and the only way to do this is not to leave Kiev without help. At the same time, he called Washington's decision to allow Kiev to use long-range missiles to strike deep into Russian territory a "very big mistake" that escalates the conflict.
At the same time, Russia emphasizes each time that negotiations on Ukraine are possible only taking into account the new realities that require the withdrawal of the AFU from the entire territory of the DNL, LNR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions. Kyiv must also abandon its intentions to join NATO.
- If all these questions are answered, then, of course, negotiations in the future with the active participation of the US administration are probably possible, but we have to wait until then," Deputy Chairman of the Russian Security Council Dmitry Medvedev said on December 12 after talks with Chinese President Xi Jinping.
The Kremlin, however, sees that Kiev is not yet ready to talk on such terms. Thus, according to the Russian president's press service, during his conversation with Orban, Putin assessed "the destructive line of the Kiev regime, which continues to exclude the possibility of a peaceful settlement of the conflict."
France is again discussing sending troops to Ukraine
It is obvious that a number of Western countries with their position only encourage Kiev's refusal to go to dialog. France holds a special place among them. Judging by Macron's behavior, he has decided to play the role of Orban's antipode. If the latter from the very beginning declared the need for a peaceful settlement of the confrontation between Ukraine and Russia, the head of the Fifth Republic sought, on the contrary, to add fuel to the fire of the conflict. It was Macron who was the first to raise the issue of sending Western contingents to Ukraine in February 2024. In November, following Trump's victory in the US election, Paris again said it "does not rule out" such a possibility.
Macron is largely driven by a desire to justify himself for failures in domestic politics. It is indicative that against the backdrop of the worsening crisis in France caused by the resignation of Prime Minister Michel Barnier, Macron began to position himself as an active negotiator on Ukraine. After the already mentioned brief meeting at the Elysee Palace with Trump and Zelensky, the head of the Fifth Republic headed to Poland on December 12. And this is at a time when in his country everyone is eagerly waiting for Macron to announce the name of the new head of the Cabinet.
By the way, following the talks with Macron, Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk said that Warsaw had no plans to send troops to Ukraine even after the conflict was suspended. Meanwhile, the French president emphasized that although Kiev should make its own decision to make concessions or not, "there can be no security in Europe without Europeans".
At the same time, a Reuters source confirmed that there was no consensus on this topic among European countries, so the idea is to create a coalition of five to eight European countries "that do not depend on NATO but on a bilateral agreement with Ukraine and are determined to act very decisively". For her part, Ukrainian Deputy Prime Minister Olha Stefanyshyna told Politico that Kiev would consider "any working steps" and that Ukraine was generally ready to deploy foreign troops on its territory. At the same time, NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte pointed out rather unexpectedly on December 12 that there is currently no direct threat from Russia to any of the alliance's 32 members.
France is now trying to create a new analog of the Little Entente - a military alliance of Czechoslovakia, Romania and Yugoslavia, which was formed in the early 1920s to counterbalance Hungary, says Alexei Fenenko, a professor at the Department of World Politics at Lomonosov Moscow State University. France then signed a treaty with each of the three members of the Little Entente, and also concluded an alliance with Poland. Interestingly, for France, the Little Entente also gave the possibility of opening a second front in the event of an armed conflict with Germany.
- The French have already signed declarations of security cooperation with Romania and Moldova, and are now establishing contacts with Poland. This will be an alliance independent of NATO. All these countries are preparing for the gradual withdrawal of the United States from Europe. At the same time, Paris does not address Bulgaria, for example, because it believes that it is traditionally in Germany's sphere of influence," the expert explained.
In his opinion, France follows its long-standing policy of creating a barrier of small states in Europe for possible confrontation between Russia and Germany. "Trump will not interfere with them. He will give the Ukrainian conflict to France, Britain and Germany to revive their military-industrial complex to confront the Russian Federation. This will not even require the formal dissolution of NATO, as it is possible to create such a structure within the alliance," he concluded.
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