Final record: market expects key growth to 23% in December
The key rate will be raised again at the Central Bank meeting on December 20 - according to the Izvestia consensus forecast, it will reach 23%. Inflation continues to grow - up to 9% in December, and before the New Year holidays the trend traditionally only intensifies. Additional pressure on both prices and inflation expectations is exerted by the recent weakening of the ruble. In early 2025, goods and services will become more expensive - at least due to the increase in the utilization fee and the indexation of Russian Railways tariffs. What level of the key rate may become the limit in this cycle - in the material of "Izvestia".
Decision on the key rate in December
The Central Bank will raise the key rate to 23% at the meeting on December 20 - half of the 28 analysts interviewed by Izvestia are sure of it. At the same time, another seven experts equally expect its growth by 2 p.p. or 1 p.p.. In addition, five analysts expect the key rate to rise only to 22%, as follows from the consensus forecast.
Two of the interviewed specialists even did not rule out that the Central Bank will go for more radical measures and immediately raise the rate around 24-25%. None of the market participants admit that the rate will remain at the current level of 21%.
Weekly price growth in the third quarter averaged 7.7%, explained the negative market expectations of Gazprombank economist Pavel Biryukov. According to the latest data, as of December 9, the figure exceeded 9%.
The situation will not improve until the end of the year - before the holidays, consumption will remain at a high level, even despite the increase in prices, added economist Andrei Barkhota. Inflation at the end of the month may reach 9.2-9.6%.
The main factor in the acceleration of prices is the overheating of the economy, due to which consumption by 20% overtakes the output of goods and services in the country, explained economist Pavel Biryukov of Gazprombank.
Demand is still overtaking supply, which is difficult to grow against the backdrop of labor shortages, said Sovcombank analyst Mikhail Vasiliev. According to Rosstat at the end of November, unemployment has reached a minimum of 2.3%, which means that the economy is literally short of "working hands".
The recent weakening of the ruble will also influence the decision on the key rate, Ilya Fedorov, chief economist of BKS Investment World, is sure. According to Tradingview, the national currency has fallen 7% against the dollar over the month - it has been trading above 100 per dollar since November 20. Problems with the stability of the exchange rate will worsen inflationary expectations of the population - the Central Bank will definitely take this factor into account on December 20, he believes.
Theregulator's rhetoric also speaks in favor of tightening monetary policy, said Olga Belenkaya, head of macroeconomic analysis at Finam. Following the results of the meeting on October 25, the Central Bank gave the toughest signal about further actions from possible. At the same time, the medium-term forecast of the Bank of Russia lays down the possibility of raising the rate to 22-23%.
In addition, in the summary of the discussion of its previous decision, the Central Bank noted that the reduction of the key rate is possible only with a significant slowdown in sustainable (not temporary) components of inflation, she recalled. There are almost no prerequisites for this so far.
How the Central Bank's policy will affect business
Thelevel of interest rates in the economy is already close to the maximum, emphasized Pavel Paevsky, Head of Credit Analysis and Macroeconomics at RSHB Asset Management. Even now, the statements of many companies show that interest payments eat up most of the profit (if the loans were taken at floating rates and now they have risen), said analyst Alexander Ugryumov of KIT Finance. For example, Rusal and Alrosa have announced plans to optimize their business, and the developer Samolet is cutting staff.
Many companies have already gone beyond the limits of business efficiency, and further growth will only aggravate the situation, believes Pavel Paevsky. Nevertheless, this trend will reduce the demand for corporate lending and will eventually help to slow down inflation.
The Central Bank leadership is particularly hoping for a slowdown in business lending, which has been growing despite the regulator's previous actions, said Olga Belenkaya of Finam. The head of the Bank of Russia Elvira Nabiullina during a speech in the State Duma said that the issuance of corporate loans will begin to cool down in the near future. Because of this, aggregate demand in the economy will slow down and inflationary pressure will subside.
Will prices continue to rise
The weakening of the ruble will continue to affect inflation in early 2025 - the fall in the exchange rate has added another 0.5-0.6 p.p. to the rise in prices in the coming months, said Finam.
The cost of cars in Russia will continue to grow - since the beginning of the year, the utilization fee will increase by 10-20%, because of which all foreign cars will become more expensive. Also from December 1, Russian Railways will index tariffs for passenger transportation by 11.6%, and for freight - by 13.8%, recalled in Sovcombank.
In addition, inflationary pressure is steadily increasing due to transaction costs of exporters and importers in cross-border settlements, added in Finam. One-off factors also played a role - for example, vegetable prices rose due to May frosts.
What will be the key rate in 2025
So far, the basic scenario is the end of the monetary policy cycle in December, said Denis Popov, managing expert of the center of analytics and expertise of PSB.
But there is no certainty that the Central Bank will not raise the rate, for example, to 24-25%, said Olga Belenkaya. The slowdown in corporate lending will help prevent this, the expert believes. Nevertheless, this level should be the ceiling.
Themain reason for the growth of the rate has not gone anywhere - it is on the supply side, which can not yet catch up with the demand in the economy, said the head of analytics service "Gazprombank Investments" Andrei Vanin. It will not be possible to deal with it quickly - moreover, the solution to this problem is the responsibility of the government, not the Central Bank.
The speed of the key rate reduction will depend not on the manifestations of the crisis, but on its origins, concluded economist Andrei Barkhota. For the market to calm down, it is important to de-escalate geopolitics and normalize government spending, which has been growing lately.
Improvement may happen as early as in the first quarter of 2025, but the regulator does not rule out that it will happen only by the end of next year.
