Land, goodbye: developers have started to sell plots purchased for development
Russian developers have started selling land plots purchased for construction, Izvestia has found out. The editorial office was informed by several business representativesthat such transactions are being conducted, including by major market players, such as Samolet Group, PIK and Sminex. According to their estimates, such sales are being conducted in many regions of the country - the market shares of the top 10 developers in Moscow are expected to be adjusted as well. Developers themselves deny attempts to get rid of the previously purchased land: for example, "Samolet" reported about some "optimization of the land bank". According to experts, in such a way in conditions of high interest rates developers intend to reduce the overall level of credit load. Experts do not make predictions - in their opinion, the future fate of the industry will depend on the state of the country's economy as a whole.
Why developers sell land
Development companies have started selling their assets in many regions of Russia due to the difficult situation in the construction industry. Several market participants told Izvestia about this, saying that sales are being conducted by such major players as the "Airplane" group, PIK, Sminex and others.
- There is a tendency for developers to sell land plots in all regions of the country. Now practically all developers who have systematically built themselves into the business are doing it. This is due to the fact that after the increase in the key rate, the cost of loans increased. Demand has decreased. Land bank for many people has now become a way to get into cash and go to deposits, - explained to "Izvestia" the development director of the company "Movement" (ecosystem of projects in the sphere of development and real estate) Radik Nigmatullin.
According to him, if these land plots are not sold and nothing is built on them, they will bring losses.
- If developers have a safety cushion, they, of course, keep their land assets. But what will happen to them in the future depends on how the situation in the economy will develop and whether the construction industry will be supported," the business representative explained.
In 2025 there will be a reduction in the volume of construction, as a number of developers have already suspended the output of new objects, he believes. The drop in commissioning of new housing may be up to 30%.
- Of the large development companies is getting rid of non-core assets "Airplane", PIK. Besides, Sminex has a large land bank. They acquired it after the merger with Ingrad", - explained Radik Nigmatullin, without specifying the details of transactions.
At the same time in Telegram-channel "Movement" it was reported, for example, that Sminex wants to sell eight plots for 2.7 million square meters. "It is mainly about comfort-class projects, including LCD "New Pushkino", "White Grad" in Mytishchi, "Filatov Meadow" in New Moscow, "Odingrad" in Odintsovo", - stated in the message.
In early summer, on the eve of the abolition of preferential mortgages, the sale of land plots announced and the group "Airplane". As reported, it was about the sale of 12 land plots at a starting price of 8 billion rubles.
The nonsense is that now developers have started to sell plots with a building permit (RNS) in significant volumes, noted SergeyRazuvaev, GMK General Director, member of the Board of the Association of Real Estate Market Professionals REPA.
- There are no exact statistics of these sales, because it is not always a public story. But the fact that the number with RNS has increased is, in a certain sense, an alarming factor," he told Izvestia.
According to him, the developer spends a lot of time, effort and money to obtain a permit. Therefore, an important question is: at what price is the land sold? If it is higher than the price for which it was bought, then it is a market story, and if it is at cost price, then it shows that developers are in a difficult situation. Sergey Razuvaev confirmed the existence of such deals in the regions as well.
Dmitry Khalin, General Director and Managing Partner of "Intermark Urban Real Estate", confirmed the tendency of developers to sell land plots.
- Today, for obvious reasons, due to the fact that the favorable mortgage has been significantly reduced, developers do not see such bright prospects as before. On the one hand, stable companies with long-term planning of projects get rid of the most inefficient and problematic for them plots, but at the same time they keep in their portfolio the land on which the realization of projects in 2025-2027 is planned, - explained the representative of business.
According to him, on the other hand, there are developers who are no longer very optimistic about the situation in the industry. Such companies will be ready to sell their projects, he believes.
- I would not say that there is a sale of land plots, but market players are actively trying to put their land plots in good hands. Of course, this will affect the volume of potential construction in 2025 and 2026, especially if we talk about bringing new projects to the market, - said Dmitry Khalin.
Even if these plots are not sold, it is clear that new projects on them will not start until the owner either decides to keep them or finds a buyer. Thus, those apartments that could enter the market in 2025 will not appear on such sites, believes the business representative.
- Some large developers do optimize the portfolio of land plots and sell the least liquid objects. But usually plots with permits are put up for sale and there are buyers for them - both Moscow and regional developers," Sergey Lobzhanidze, Director of bnMAP.pro, a system for monitoring and analyzing new buildings, noted to Izvestia.
According to him, the market shares of the top 10 developers in Moscow are expected to be adjusted.
Earlier "Izvestia" in the Ministry of Finance reported that the share of preferential programs in the issuance of mortgages in the primary housing market has exceeded 90%, that is, it is now almost entirely live at the expense of subsidies from the state. And the Ministry of Construction in the current circumstances is working on various scenarios to support the industry, one of which may be the introduction of a moratorium on bankruptcy.
They do not sell, but optimize
The press service of the "Airplane" group did not confirm the tendency to sell land plots due to economic instability. According to the developer's estimation, there is a standard volume of transactions in the market. At the same time, they noted that the company itself is implementing a land bank optimization program.
- It is logical that now developers want to realize land plots, the development of which is possible only in the long-term period - this is an opportunity to increase the return on capital now, when liquidity is very important under tight monetary policy. Since "Airplane" has the largest land bank in the industry, designed for tens of years, we are now working on deals to sell plots to developers who will be able to offer another product in our neighboring location, - explained the press service.
The company noted that this approach allows to diversify the product without creating high competition.
- We plan to sell plots in locations with high concentration in our portfolio and continue to grow in the regions and Moscow. This is a medium-term strategy, which implies a balanced approach and no discount, and we plan to sell exclusively at market prices. There is no question of "selling out"," the company emphasized.
According to Samolet, the land bank optimization program will increase the overall profitability of the portfolio. At the same time, the company believes that transactions on the land market should not affect the volume of construction in 2025, as those who are ready to build on them are buying plots.
Vladimir Komar, Managing Director for Investment Strategy of the Land Bank, Urban Planning and Territory Development of the "Airplane" Group, added that many players from the regions with money have appeared on the market, which previously had more difficulty in buying land plots in the Moscow agglomeration. Large developers have started to put non-strategic projects, mainly long-distance queues, with technical and economic indicators (TEP) for sale at a high price, a company representative emphasized.
- I would not unite sales by some developers of their assets into a single trend," Elena Kulbikova, vice-president for financial and legal issues at Sminex, told Izvestia.
Firstly, it is not of a mass character, and secondly, there may be different reasons for it, she added.
- Sminex is open to offers to sell only non-core projects. For example, logistics centers," explained the developer.
At the same time, the company did not confirm that there are "eight specific projects for sale".
In the current economic situation it is quite natural for developers to put their assets up for sale, but the trend cannot be called absolute, Olga Khasanova, General Director of URBAN real estate projects, told Izvestia.
- While some market players are getting rid of sites, others are actively buying them up. For example, the company Glorax is moving to more and more aggressive expansion in the regions (Tula, Murmansk, Yaroslavl, Omsk, Leningrad Region), Krasnodar Dogma became the owner of 8 hectares of land in the Moscow district of Moskvorechye-Saburovo and is interested in the industrial zone "Avtomotornaya", Element Development has purchased from "LSR Group" almost 10 hectares on Vasilievsky Island in St. Petersburg, "Etalon" group has bought 35 hectares in St. Petersburg agglomeration, - said the business representative.
According to her, we can talk about redistribution of the land fund.
- Some developers are actually forced to reduce the scale of their presence in the market, others are revising their economic model, the third promptly needed a large amount of liquidity to "transfer" it to another direction, the fourth are clearing their portfolio of non-core assets. A typical example is the sale of plots of land for comfort and business class projects, which was organized by Sminex after the takeover of Inteko and Ingrad", - said Olga Khasanova.
The construction volumes will be reduced in any case, but the sale of land plots is not the reason, but a sign, explained the business representative. According to her, developers need to adapt to low demand and high rates, and for many companies this means a decrease in turnover.
- As a company that regularly conducts systematic evaluation and analysis of land assets, we see no signs of "flight" from the market and total refusal of developers to implement projects. Moreover, over the last year we ourselves have fundamentally increased our portfolio of promising projects, including diversifying it with office real estate," Georgy Novikov, Head of Development and Promising Projects Division of Sezar Group development company, told Izvestia.
"Izvestia" sent inquiries to other construction companies asking them to comment on the market changes.
Will the sale of assets save developers in 2025?
The sale of land plots is most likely due to the need to increase liquidity and debt servicing, Anna Danchenok, director of Yakov & Partners, head of the construction and development practice, explained to Izvestia.
- It is quite likely that these plots were purchased using borrowed funds and the developers in the conditions of high interest rates decided to reduce the overall level of credit load by selling part of their land assets. Taking into account the cost of project financing and the situation in sales, it is not expedient for developers to launch a large volume of new objects now," she explained to Izvestia.
According to her, that is why developers can quietly sell part of the land and improve their financial situation. Perhaps, someone will try to earn money on high deposit rates in anticipation of lower sales volumes, the expert believes.
At the same time, in her opinion, the sale of a part of land assets for the majority of large developers is not the reason for the decrease in construction volumes. On the contrary, it is rather a consequence of the reduction of planned indicators. For the sake of maintaining target margins of projects and real estate prices, developers are ready to reduce the volume of supply and increase the overall terms of project realization, the expert believes.
- In such a situation they have land which they will start building up later than they planned when buying the land plot. And it is logical to sell this land," she explained.
"Izvestia" sent a request to the Ministry of Construction to comment on the situation related to the sale of land assets, as well as the consequences for the market. The Ministry refrained from commenting.
At the same time, on December 11, Deputy Head of the Ministry Nikita Stasishin said that this year it is planned to commission about 43.5 million square meters of apartment housing, which is 16% less than a year earlier.
