The contour of chaos: what goals are pursued by the main players in Syria
After the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime, Syria is expectedly plunging into political chaos. External players cautiously declare their readiness to establish contacts with the new Syrian authorities. Western media write about their leader as a "progressive jihadist" and express hope for democratic reforms. However, more and more factors point to the gradual formation of an "all against all" conflict. As a consequence, analysts note the activation of third forces, each of which pursues its own interests. "Izvestia" studied the situation.
Words and bullets
What is currently happening on the territory of Syria does not yet have any signs of movement towards political stability. Contrary to the statements of the leadership of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, a terrorist organization banned in Russia), widespread looting and murder continue throughout the country. Not only supporters of the Assad regime are being subjected to violence, but also members of religious minorities who were previously guaranteed security. This is due to the heterogeneity of the KTS and the absence of a monolithic political ideology.
Damaged photo of Bashar al-Assad
For this reason, at the moment, the situation of the crisis of 2011-2015 is actually repeating itself, when the militants of Jebhat al-Nusra (a terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation), even before their accession in 2017, carried out actions of targeted destruction of Alawites, Druze and Christians. As now, the then leaders declared religious tolerance and thus tried to remove the label of religious fanatics and terrorists of ISIS (terrorist organization banned in the Russian Federation).
Major players are actively taking advantage of the chaos. Their interests, which have been the subject of fruitless negotiations over the past years, are now colliding in the form of a hot conflict. The most obvious and indicative example is the Kurdish issue.
One of the main interests here is Turkey. The "Syrian National Army" (SNA), supported and controlled by it, has for the past few days been successfully fighting against the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF), Kurdish formations supplied and financed by the United States. On December 11, the sides declared a truce. Prior to that, the SNA entered the previously Kurdish-controlled city of Manbij. At the same time, Turkey openly claims Aleppo captured by the HTS. The country's state media openly welcomed the militants' entry into Syria's second most important city.
A unit of the "Syrian National Army"
On December 9, Recep Erdogan said that the next two to three months will be crucial for Syria's future. The time factor for Ankara is indeed important. The HTS was considered a Turkish proxy formation for the period in Idlib. Ankara, contrary to the Astana agreements, not only did not disarm, but on the contrary - significantly increased its support. However, as Grigory Lukyanov, deputy dean of the Oriental Faculty of the State Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan, emphasizes, this is a fragile and probably temporary status.
- The Turks, with all their desire, have never managed to completely subdue the HTS. Moreover, the independence of the latter violates the discipline of truly pro-Turkish formations. As the HTS grows in influence and gains resources that they did not have access to during their stay in Idlib, not only will their autonomy from Ankara grow, but also their authority in the eyes of the SNA. I assume that the latter may eventually fall under the control of the new authorities or even more radical forces. The HTS has released quite a few such characters from prisons, and there are quite a few of them in the structures of the SNA as well. Only now they have operational space and no need to hide their beliefs. So the problems for Turkey are predictable, and this is understood, including in Erdogan's government," Lukyanov said.
Unspoken agreements
The situation for Ankara is further complicated by the fact that Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is now actively cooperating with the Kurds. On December 11, apparently as a result of an agreement, the latter withdrew from Deir ez-Zor in Syria in an organized manner, after which power in the city passed into the hands of the HTS. Experts note that the main task of both Erdogan's government and its opponents from the SDF is physical control over the territories. For the Kurds, this is primarily an argument in current and future negotiations with Damascus. For the HTS, tolerance towards the Kurdish problem is also becoming an element of diplomatic bargaining with the West.
Rebels led by the Islamist group HTSH
As analysts recognize, the farther the HTS militants moved away from Idlib, the weaker the Turkish influence became. Until the moment of escalation, Ankara, as previously believed, had almost complete control over its wards. Now they have much more room for maneuver.
Independence or not
The US and Israel are actively involved in resolving the Kurdish issue. Washington and West Jerusalem are in favor of an independent Kurdish state. For the US, this is primarily to protect the oil, gas and fertile land rich areas where American companies have long been active. For the latter, it is the creation of another buffer zone on the border. The Israeli authorities consistently support the idea of an independent Kurdistan or a national Kurdish autonomy within a federalized Syria. On December 9, Israeli Foreign Minister Gideon Sa'ar spoke out on this issue. "The logic is to seek autonomy for the various minorities in Syria, possibly with a federal structure. This issue is yet to be considered by the international community, and we will closely follow what is happening in Syria now," he said.
For Turkey, the plan is unacceptable in two ways. First, Kurdish separatism carries clear and obvious risks to domestic political stability. Second, partitioning Syria promises Ankara another wave of refugees. On December 10, Erdogan explicitly declared Turkey's intention to thwart this scenario by all available means.
"Let's make one thing clear: from now on, we cannot allow Syria to be divided again," the Turkish president said. - We will never allow the country to become a conflict zone again. We will not tolerate any move or provocation to prevent our brotherly Syrian people from returning to their homes. We will stand together with the Syrian people against any encroachment on their freedom, the stability of the new Syrian administration and the integrity of the ancient Syrian land."
Erdogan added that his country "will not stand by and watch others drown the region in blood and set it on fire for the sake of their fanatical beliefs and twisted ideas," referring to Israel's actions.
Syrians living in Turkey hold a picture of Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
For Ankara, the "Kurdish issue" is an existential challenge that cannot be ignored, emphasizes orientalist Tural Kerimov.
- It poses a threat to security and statehood. There are 15 to 20 million Kurds in Turkey. The Kurds themselves are nothing in military and political terms without US support. They started their offensive actions during the fight against ISIS. After that, they gained control over large desert areas in northeastern Syria, and with them the facilities, logistics and energy infrastructure. For the Syrian economy, nevertheless, it is 70% of the arable land in the Euphrates Valley, 95% of the gas fields. This is a game against Turkey, on the other hand - maximum problems for the Arab world (primarily for Iraq and Syria), and therefore - maximum benefit for Israel," admits the Izvestia interlocutor.
Sow the wind
Meanwhile, Israel is conducting a de facto intervention and occupation of the neighboring state's territories. Since December 7, news agencies have been reporting the presence of the IDF not only along the border with Syria, where a 401-square-kilometer buffer zone has been created, but also on the lands adjacent to the formally disputed Golan Heights (which, as Benjamin Netanyahu stated, belong to Israel forever). There are also reports of Israeli military movements in the "deep" areas of Syria, several dozen kilometers from Damascus.
Israeli military at the buffer zone on the border with Syria
It should also be noted that the U.S.-Israeli "Kurdistan concept" is strongly opposed not only in Turkey but also in the Arab world. The IDF's active actions deep inside Syrian territory, which are directly linked to this plan, have already met with a sharp reaction from Cairo and Riyadh. The Egyptian government accused Israel of "seeking to occupy more territory," while Saudi Arabia accused Israel of intending to "undermine Syria's chances of restoring security, stability and territorial integrity."
That said, the narratives being spread by the Israeli media are very similar to the victory speeches of their Turkish counterparts earlier this week.
Chaotization of the border space is a traditional Israeli strategy, Grigory Lukyanov points out
- Chaotization exists on almost the entire perimeter, and throughout history Israel has built its own security system in this way. So in this sense, West Jerusalem is unlikely to have any problems. In addition, right now the IDF is actively destroying all potential threats like those Hezbollah posed to it. Now any military potential inside Syria will be used for the struggle for power, and only in the long term security threats may arise for West Jerusalem," the expert notes.
At the same time, despite the statements about the readiness to cooperate, West Jerusalem has no clear idea about the future plans of the new Syrian government, if it sooner or later manages to establish state control over the territories of the country. To what extent the emerging reality of Syrian political life will subsequently conform to recent statements, no one can now predict. Chaos may change the direction of its spread. The more than 200 Israeli air raids on warehouses and other Syrian army facilities carried out in the four partial days since the overthrow of Al-Assad are an attempt to pre-empt that threat.
Israeli airstrike on Syria
At the moment, it is extremely difficult to assess the real potential of each of the many paramilitary groups, associations and organizations operating in Syria, admits Grigory Lukyanov.
- It is very difficult to understand who exactly is left on Syrian territory and in what condition. But in any case, it is worth mentioning ISIS cells. In the current conditions, they may pose a problem for both Julani (Abu Muhammad al-Julani, leader of the HTS) and the SNA. And here they are faced with a choice: to immediately oppose the "moderate" Julani and, under the anti-Israeli flag, enter the struggle for power or, more likely, to go underground for several years. In the second case, they will wait for attempts at compromise to fail and for the social base to mature for continued conflict or political influence. There is no longer any deterrent in the form of Shiite groups, and this will certainly be used in the future. In the meantime, the radicals are being used by Turkey to win the confrontation with the Kurds. They may also be used by the United States in the future if, for example, Julani comes to a deal with Moscow to maintain Russian military presence," Lukyanov said.
To catch up with Trump
The U.S.-Turkish confrontation in Syria has long been in the public eye. Back in April, Turkish Foreign Minister Suleyman Soylu said that by "fighting terrorism," his country is "actually fighting the United States." Meanwhile, the Biden administration's diplomatic efforts, as in most Middle East cases, have had no result. The current escalation, which threatened to escalate into a direct military clash, has been halted by an approved cease-fire. On December 13, an attempt will be made to resolve the contradictions diplomatically: Anthony Blinken will arrive in Ankara for a visit.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
It is likely that support for the Kurds will continue even after January 20, when Donald Trump's team comes to power. At least this is evidenced by the previously announced position of Mark Rubio (candidate for Secretary of State) and Mike Walz (National Security Advisor). Moreover, Trump has already invited Mazlum Kobani, the leader of the Kurdish "People's Self-Defense Units" (the basic unit of the SDF), to the inauguration ceremony.
