Migration thesis: what awaits Syrian refugees in the EU after Assad's departure
The issue of the Syrian crisis should be put on the agenda of the next plenary session of the European Parliament, MEP Thierry Mariani told Izvestia. He reiterated his parliamentary group's concern over the possibility of a new wave of Syrian refugees. Meanwhile, a number of European countries, on the contrary, hope that the number of migrants will decrease. For example, Germany has already suspended asylum for refugees from Syria on the pretext that Damascus has undergone a change of power to a more "democratic" one. France and Austria are also ready to take similar measures. The expert community doubts that Syrians in European countries will be willing to give up European comforts and return to their homeland. Whether the migration situation in the EU will change after the fall of Bashar al-Assad's regime is the subject of the Izvestia article.
The Syrian crisis will be discussed in the European Parliament
Despite the fact that the agenda of the next session of the European Parliament, starting on December 16, does not include discussion of the Syrian crisis, such a topic is likely to be added to the list of discussions, confirmed "Izvestia" EP deputy from France Thierry Mariani.
- Emergency debates are likely to be held. On the first day of the plenary session of the European Parliament there is always a possibility to put on the agenda emergency debates. Syria, Georgia and Romania are not on the agenda right now. And I think that these three topics will be urgently discussed, " he said.
The MEP also confirmed that his parliamentary group Patriots for Europe fears a new wave of Syrian refugees.
- Naive Europeans rejoiced in 2003 at the fall of Saddam Hussein in Iraq, in 2011 they celebrated the fall of Muammar Gaddafi in Libya and now they are rejoicing at the end of Bashar al-Assad's rule. And in their naivety they find themselves in the same boat with the Islamists every time, facing the chaos created," he added.
On December 10, the armed opposition, which seized power in the country, instructed Mohammed al-Bashir, who previously headed the so-called Syrian Salvation Government in the Idlib de-escalation zone,to form a new cabinet. He himself told the Al Arabiya TV channel that a meeting was held to transfer affairs from Bashar al-Assad's former cabinet to the interim Syrian government. At the same time, the transition period is set to end on March 1, 2025.
Thus, it may seem that so far the situation is developing as desired by Assad, who left the presidency and left the country, and who, it should be recalled, indicated that "the transfer of power should be carried out peacefully". However, the situation in the country remains extremely tense and there is no guarantee that Syria will not plunge into the chaos of civil war, given the heterogeneity of the opposition and the absence of a strong government. Add to that the fact that a large number of prisoners have been released from the country's prisons, among them many militants of terrorist groups. In addition, taking advantage of the situation, the Israel Defense Forces, according to media reports, have already seized the entire former buffer zone of the Golan Heights and reached settlements on the outskirts of Damascus. However, the IDF officially states that it has not moved further than the buffer zone. Fighting is also taking place in the north of the country, where pro-Turkish formations are trying to seize the Kurdish-controlled city of Manbij.
Along with the scenario of a new civil war , one cannot rule out scenarios of Syria's subsequent federalization or even its breakup into several states. The Kremlin believes that Syria is now experiencing "a period of uncertainty" that requires "a deep analysis of the current events."
"Right now it is still difficult to predict the final form that will follow after this period of uncertainty," presidential spokesman Dmitry Peskov said.
According to him, the Russian Federation intends to continue the processes of wide-ranging cooperation with all regional countries.
Answering Izvestia's question on December 7 about the possibility of a new migration crisis against the backdrop of events in Syria, Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov refrained from making predictions. "I cannot guess. This thing is unpredictable. The problem is those who unleashed wars in Libya, in Iraq, who have now brought Syria, having tried to make it a country with a changed regime back in 2011, <...> to the state it is in. They are not thinking about the consequences. Refugees don't run across the ocean, as you know. So the Europeans should have thought about this problem. Let them use their influence, although maybe there isn't any left, on Washington, explaining to the Americans that such games end very badly".
Brussels is watching the situation
In the current situation, the EU authorities are taking a wait-and-see attitude. Thus, on December 9, the European Commission stated that it does not support contacts with the armed opposition and, in particular, with representatives of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (recognized as a terrorist group and banned in Russia).
"HTSH is on the EU list of terrorist organizations, this decision is binding for all EU countries. It can be reviewed only unanimously. To review it, we must evaluate not so much their words as their actions," the EC said.
Also, the European Commission is not yet ready to revise sanctions against entities and individuals from Syria. Answering journalists' questions about the migration situation in the European Union in connection with the situation in Syria, the EC representative said that it was too early to comment on it. At the same time, his colleagues hope that most of the diaspora of refugees from Syria in the EU "will be happy to return" back.
The European Border and Coast Guard (Frontex) told Izvestia that it was monitoring the situation at the border with EU member states.
- It is too early to discuss any changes in the number of EU border crossings, Frontex is monitoring the situation," the agency's spokesman Krzysztof Borowski said.
Political scientist and orientalist Roland Bidjamov told Izvestia that under the current circumstances, it is not worth expecting a new wave of Syrian refugees to Europe.
- It will be very difficult for them to settle, given the number of Syrians who have already settled there. Besides, if anyone escapes from Syria, it will most likely be supporters of the Assad regime, and these are the people who will not be welcomed in the EU countries. So they will flee towards Iraq and other Arab countries. Syrian refugees from Europe to Syria are also unlikely to return. Especially the youth and minority groups, which include Christians and Alawites. For Eastern Christians, Europe is a welcome paradise and a trap at the same time, because essentially all Middle Eastern Christianity has fled to the West because of ISIS (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia)," he added.
But it would be naive to think that the opposition forces that came to power will be able to build a radically new society. "The relationship between the authorities and society will be built approximately according to the same scheme that was.That is, it is the leader, it is the party and the people themselves. No European-type structures will be created in Syria. Therefore, only refugees from the Middle East who are having a hard time will return, not those who live in Europe. And even if they return, they will try their best to keep their European passports, if they have them," Roland Bidjamov added.
By the way,Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan said on December 9 that Ankara would facilitate the process of voluntary return of Syrian refugees to their homeland. At the beginning of December, there were more than 2.93 million Syrian refugees living in Turkey, of which more than 1.5 million were minors. According to him, Turkey has already opened the Yayladagi border crossing on the border with Syria to facilitate the movement of refugees to their homeland.
EU countries have begun suspending applications from Syrians
In any case, individual European countries were quick to react to what happened in Syria. Thus, the German Federal Office for Migration and Refugees suspended the processing of asylum applications from Syrians on December 9. The situation in Syria is unclear, and it is too difficult to predict how political developments in the country will unfold, a spokesman for the agency told Spiegel magazine. So far, more than 47,000 Syrians have been granted asylum in Syria. of Syrian asylum applications have yet to be processed by the country's authorities.
The French Interior Ministry also confirmed to Le Figaro newspaper that it is working on the issue of suspending the processing of applications from Syrian refugees. At the same time, Jean-Noel Barrot, foreign minister of the Fifth Republic, said that Assad's ouster gives "hope that Syrian refugees in the Middle East, and perhaps soon in Europe, will finally be able to return home." Tellingly, the head of the far-right National Rassemblement, Jordaan Bardella, urged Brussels and EU members at the same time to "anticipate now the risk of a migration surge that could be exploited by Islamists."
Finally, in Austria, where about 100,000 Syrians live, Chancellor Karl Nehammer instructed the Interior Ministry to suspend consideration of applications already submitted by Syrians. The head of the country's Interior Ministry, Gerhard Karner, added that his department is preparing a repatriation and deportation program to Syria.
According to French political scientist Nicolas Mirkovic, Brussels and EU members are reasoning according to a formal logic that says if people fled Assad's rule, they should want to return after its fall. "They are more comfortable living in Europe and most of them will never want to leave. They will prefer to stay in order to take advantage of the rather generous social benefits provided by the European Union," he concluded in a conversation with Izvestia.
