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- Rules of Transition: How Events in Syria are Changing the Balance of Power in the Middle East
Rules of Transition: How Events in Syria are Changing the Balance of Power in the Middle East
The National Coalition of Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCROF) is planning to organize a transitional phase in Syria. Its head, Hadi al-Bahra, has even allowed the platform to expand: apparently, he hints at the inclusion of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (a terrorist organization banned in Russia), whose leader, Ahmed al-Sheraa, has already made a speech at the Umayyad Mosque. Moscow is in contact with all groups of the Syrian opposition, the Russian Foreign Ministry said. A spokesman for the SLRCS also noted that the coalition seeks to maintain good relations with Russia. How the balance of power in the Middle East will now change and what elements will make up the transitional government of Syria - in the material of "Izvestia".
What is happening in the Middle East after the change of power in Syria?
The Arab Socialist Renaissance Party (PASV), often referred to as Baath, was overthrown in Syria on December 8, ending its more than 60-year rule in the republic. It had played an important role in consolidating Syrian statehood, becoming one of the largest political forces in the Middle East. But after about two weeks of active confrontation between the army and the armed opposition, President Bashar al-Assad resigned from the presidency and left the country, "instructing a peaceful transfer of power." Granting him and his family asylum was ordered by Vladimir Putin. "Of course, such decisions cannot be made without the head of state. This is his decision," Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said on December 9.
Anas al-Abda, a spokesman for the National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces (NCRS), said that the opposition seeks to minimize the number of enemies and "Russia is a very important player in this world - both regionally and internationally."
"We strive to maintain good relations with Russia. And in this context, our common interests should be considered paramount," he told TASS.
Obviously, the main beneficiary of the latest developments in Syria has been Turkey, which has long supported the opposition in the republic and is actively involved in the conflict. It is not by chance that the media reported that the armed opposition informed Ankara about all the details of the large-scale operation six months before it took place. The top Turkish leadership has repeatedly stated that Assad must enter into negotiations with the Syrian opposition to advance a settlement. This is explained partly by the fact that Ankara did not want to see a new wave of migrants on Turkish territory: about 3 million Syrian refugees already live there. Now the media in that country are already reporting on Syrians returning to their homeland.
Experts believe that Russia will probably have to negotiate with Turkey in order to preserve its military bases in Tartus and Khmeimim.
- In the short term, Turkey has benefited. Erdogan made no secret in his statements that he was very upset by Assad's intransigent stance. The former Syrian president could show flexibility, and now Turkey will occupy even more territories on its own or through its proxies," Vladimir Akhmedov, a senior researcher at the Center for the Study of General Problems of the Modern East at the Institute of Oriental Studies of the Russian Academy of Sciences, predicted to Izvestia.
Qatar, Doha
Qatar, which opposes Assad, will also have an opportunity to strengthen its influence in the region. Doha has not been enthusiastic about restoring relations with Damascus before. It has been one of the most active sponsors of anti-government forces and has called on all international platforms to hold Damascus accountable "for crimes against the Syrian people." In addition, Qatar opposed the restoration of Syria's membership in the LAS.
Iran, which played a leading role in maintaining the current regime in the SAR, had the most to lose from the transfer of power from Assad. Syria occupied a key place in the so-called Shiite axis, which stretched from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Tehran has provided Damascus with financial and military support, while Hezbollah and Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) fighters have been involved in suppressing protests. It is reported that since the beginning of the Syrian crisis, the Iranian Central Bank has reportedly opened a line of credit to the Syrian authorities, allowing them to pay the Armed Forces personnel.
The change of power in Syria has had a negative impact on the entire so-called pro-Iranian Axis of Resistance fighting the Jewish state. Mohammed Al-Farah, a member of the political bureau of the Houthi movement Ansar Allah, told Izvestia.
- Of course, we believe that these attacks serve primarily the US and Israel. The timing of the operation was chosen at the behest of [Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin] Netanyahu. The actions and results of the terrorist groups' operations in Syria are primarily aimed at cutting off the supply line for Hezbollah, which will have a negative impact on it and on resistance movements in general, including support for Gaza," a Houthi spokesman told Izvestia.
Netanyahu, on the other hand, said in a speech on the Syrian border that the change of power in Damascus was the result of the strikes Israel had launched against Iran and Hezbollah. This, the prime minister said, opens "new, very important opportunities" for the Jewish state.
- "Israel will continue to act and thwart any attempt to resume supplies from Iran to Hezbollah through Syrian territory," said Dmitry Gendelman, an adviser to the Israeli prime minister.
Who Russia is now in contact with in Syria
The Russian Embassy in Damascus on the eve of the escalation of the situation reminded Russian citizens living in the republic about the possibility of leaving the country by commercial flights through operating airports.
- The size of the tragedy now unfolding in Syria exceeds the capacity of our communities. At the moment we are talking about evacuating representatives of the numerous Russian-speaking community in Syria to their homeland with the help of the Russian Embassy," Archimandrite Philip (Vasiltsev), representative of the Patriarch of Moscow and All Russia to the Patriarch of Antioch, told Izvestia. - At the very beginning of the hostilities in Syria, the rector of the Russian Orthodox Church's Suburbs offered his compatriots to use the living quarters of the representative office building in Damascus, but this proposal is most likely not relevant due to the fact that the Syrian capital itself has become a danger zone for several days now.
Despite the jihadist structure's claims that Russian citizens will not be harmed, according to orientalist Vladimir Akhmedov, one should not unconditionally believe these words.
- "Hayat Tahrir al-Sham is now trying to convince everyone that they have abandoned their Islamist attitudes," the expert said in a conversation with Izvestiya.
Russia should pay more attention to contacts with the Syrian Free Army, Akhmedov said. According to him, firstly, there are people there with whom it is easier to find a common language; secondly, it is a secular structure consisting of representatives of the officer corps.
- It is composed mainly of defectors from the Syrian Arab Army, and there were, according to some estimates, from 30,000 to 100,000 of them," the specialist said. - Quite a large number of these comrades graduated from the Frunze Academy and studied in military educational institutions of the USSR and Russia.
The Russian Foreign Ministry said Moscow is in contact with all groups of the Syrian opposition. Ensuring the safety of Russians who are in the republic is the main task now, said Sergei Naryshkin, director of the Russian Foreign Intelligence Service.
Who will come to power in Damascus
On December 8, the leader of the terrorist group Ahmed al-Sheraa (old alias - Abu Mohammed al-Julani) arrived in Damascus, where he delivered a speech at the Umayyad Mosque. Many observers associated it with a public sermon in Iraq's Mosul by former IS (recognized as a terrorist group and banned in Russia) chief Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, which he delivered in 2014 after capturing Iraq's second-largest city.
Meanwhile, a curfew was imposed in Damascus and armed groups were banned from approaching state institutions. The opposition has announced that until a transitional government is formed, governance will remain in the hands of the former State institutions.
The National Coalition of Syrian Revolutionary and Opposition Forces is likely to organize the transitional phase. It was established on November 11, 2012 in Qatar and consisted of emigrants. Since October 2015, a part of the NISS staff has been transferred to terrorist-controlled Idlib. The National Coalition never became a consolidated association and looked more like an artificially created platform dependent on external curators, primarily Turkey and Qatar. However, the NCORS has waited for its time.
According to the head of the coalition, Hadi al-Bahra, the formation of a new government should be entrusted to the National Coalition. At the same time, he allowed the platform to be expanded by adding "new opposition elements," apparently alluding to Hayat Tahrir al-Sham. The country's transition period should last 18 months, six of which will be spent on drafting a constitution to be approved in a referendum, al-Bahra added. The next stage will be elections.
Former Prime Minister Riyad Hijab may be appointed head of Syria's transitional government, the Figaro newspaper reported. Hijab was one of the most senior figures to cross over to the anti-government side. The former governor of Latakia, who then became agriculture minister and even prime minister, fled the country after he was sent into retirement. In 2016, Hijab led an opposition delegation to talks in Geneva.
Former Syrian Prime Minister Riyad Hijab
- "Riyad Hijab is an economist who had a good attitude towards Russia, there are certain ties there," Vladimir Akhmedov told Izvestia.
It is worth noting that the NKORS also took part in the Astana format meetings on Syria, unlike Hayat Tahrir al-Sham, which tried to get rid of the label of a terrorist organization. It formed in 2017 on the basis of Jebhat al-Nusra (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia), which had been established since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2012 as a local branch of al-Qaeda (also banned in Russia). In one of his rare interviews, Ahmed al-Sheraa said that the group had severed all ties with al-Qaeda.
