In the next Syria: what awaits the republic after extremists take over Damascus
Russia is in contact with the Syrian opposition that has taken control of Damascus, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on December 8. It noted that following negotiations with the participants in the conflict, Bashar al-Assad resigned from the presidential post and left the country, "instructing to carry out the transfer of power peacefully". Meanwhile, fighting in Syria continues. The Turkish-backed "Syrian National Army" has launched attacks on Kurds in the north of the country. Israel, which has deployed its forces in the buffer zone in the Golan, has also launched missile strikes on the territory of Syria. Experts interviewed by Izvestiya doubt that the events in Syria will follow a peaceful path. In their opinion, the opposition groups are unlikely to find common ground in the struggle for power and money. On the prospects of a new civil war in Syria, the reaction of Russia and the countries of the Middle East - in the material "Izvestia".
How the Syrian opposition seized power in Damascus
Bashar al-Assad, following the results of negotiations with a number of participants in the armed conflict, decided to leave the presidency and left the country, "instructing to carry out the transfer of power peacefully," reported the Russian Foreign Ministry in the afternoon on December 8, specifying that Russia did not participate in these negotiations. Earlier in the morning on the same day, the armed opposition took control of the Syrian capital Damascus. After that, Prime Minister Mohammed Ghazi al-Jalali announced to the Al Arabiya TV channel the beginning of a "new era" in the country's history.
- We make a strong appeal to all parties involved to renounce the use of violence and to resolve all issues of governance through political means. In this regard, the Russian Federation is in contact with all groups of the Syrian opposition," the Russian diplomatic ministry said.
As for the Russian military bases in Latakia and Tartus, according to the ministry, there is no serious threat to their security at the moment. At the same time, they are on high alert. "At the same time, all necessary measures are being taken to ensure the safety of our citizens who are in Syria," the diplomats added.
The Russian Embassy in Syria told Izvestia that its staff had not been injured as a result of the seizure of Damascus by terrorist formations.
- All staff members are fine," it noted.
Russia has already requested urgent closed consultations of the UN Security Council on the situation in Syria, according to Dmitry Polyansky, Russia's first deputy deputy envoy to the organization. Meanwhile, a source familiar with the situation told Izvestia that Russia has granted asylum to Assad and his family members. The leaders of the armed Syrian opposition have guaranteed the security of Russian military bases and diplomatic institutions.
Events in Syria began to unfold rapidly on November 27, when militants of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia) and its allied groups launched an attack in the direction of the cities of Aleppo and Hama. Despite the opposition of government forces supported by the Russian Air and Space Forces, the extremists seized Aleppo and its suburbs on November 30. Within a few days, Hama, Deir ez-Zor, Deraa and Homs came under their control. The "Syrian National Army" (SNA, the former "Free Syrian Army") and other allegedly pro-Turkish formations are also taking part in the events, although officially Ankara does not recognize any ties with them.
"Hayat Tahrir al-Sham" (HTS), which is a coalition of jihadist groups, was formed in 2017 on the basis of "Jebhat al-Nusra" (recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia), which was created since the beginning of the Syrian civil war in 2012 as a local branch of "al-Qaeda" (also recognized as terrorist and banned in Russia).
After HTS militants took Damascus in the morning, the Syrian prime minister said he contacted the extremists' head Abu Muhammad al-Julani and the leadership of the group's operational headquarters. The politician said they assured him that they would continue to provide services to the population and that there would be no reprisals. At the same time, as in other previously captured cities, the militants rushed to release all prisoners from Seidnaya prison, located in the northern suburbs of Damascus.
Samal Joulani, who began using his real name, Ahmed al-Sharaa, wrote on the group's Telegram channel that all military personnel in Damascus are strictly forbidden to approach government facilities, which will remain under the former prime minister's supervision until the official handover of power. If the Syrian newspaper Al Watan is to be believed, a curfew is being imposed in Damascus from 4:00 p.m. to 5:00 a.m. local time by decision of the "military administration."
How the fall of Assad has been reacted to in the Middle East
Moscow called for respect for the opinions of all ethno-confessional forces in Syrian society: "We support efforts to establish an inclusive political process based on the unanimously adopted UN Security Council Resolution 2254. We expect that these approaches will be taken into account by the UN and all interested players, including in the context of the implementation of the initiative of the UN Secretary General's Special Representative for Syria Geir Pedersen on the urgent organization of inter-Syrian inclusive negotiations in Geneva".
By the way, as Pedersen confirmed, at a meeting in Doha on December 7, the foreign ministers of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Iraq, Iran, Turkey and representatives of Russia agreed on the need for an inclusive dialog in Syria.
Later in the day, Tehran said it would spare no effort to help Syria find stability and security. For its part, Ankara spoke in favor of Syria maintaining its territorial integrity. Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan emphasized that his country would continue to fight the Kurdistan Workers' Party, which Turkey considers a terrorist group. In confirmation of these words, the Turkish-backed "Syrian National Army" has already launched an operation against Kurdish forces in the city of Manbij in northern Syria.
In light of the Kurdish issue, Ankara is considered a key stakeholder in the escalation that has begun. In the past, Turkey has repeatedly initiated military operations against the Kurds in Syria in order to prevent the establishment of an independent territorial entity in the border areas.
However, according to orientalist Elena Suponina, it will be difficult for the Turks to cope with Kurdish formations in northern Syria, given the heterogeneity of the "Syrian National Army" and the contradictions that exist within it between the Kurds and other pro-Turkish forces.
- Amid their general hatred of President Assad, there have been some contacts between Kurdish formations and those groups that have been under Turkish protection in northern Syria in recent times. But there are more contradictions there than coincidences. Turkey is highly suspicious of Kurdish organizations. The Turks have repeatedly tried to resolve the issue separately in talks with Russia and the United States, but each time they failed to bring the sides closer together. Erdogan has long dreamed of taking the city of Manbij. He has repeatedly raised this issue with the Russian military. But the Kurds will not simply withdraw. Even if some coordinated actions between the Kurds and pro-Turkish groups are possible at first, then the contradictions will inevitably lead to conflict," she added.
Israel also instantly reacted to the situation in Syria. On Sunday, the IDF announced the deployment of its forces in the buffer zone in the Golan, emphasizing that the actions are "defensive in nature" and Israel "does not interfere" in what is happening in the Arab republic. According to The Jerusalem Post, citing unnamed sources, the Israeli Air Force attacked a factory in Syria allegedly used by the Assad government to produce chemical weapons. The publication notes that Israel feared that the facility would fall into the hands of the armed opposition.
It is noteworthy that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu visited the area bordering Syria on December 8, where he said that the change of power in Damascus was the result of Israeli strikes against Iran and the forces of the Shiite organization Hezbollah in Lebanon. He said the strike had set off a "chain reaction" across the Middle East among those who wanted an end to Assad's rule. Nevertheless, he recognized that it could also lead to new risks.
- Along with Hezbollah, Syria was an important link in Iran's "Axis of Resistance." Through its arrangements with Bashar al-Assad, Iran could project its influence across the Middle East. The fall of Damascus was a loss for Tehran and its ability to confront Israel. In that sense, Iran's withdrawal from Syria and the weakening of Hezbollah favors Israel. But at the same time, it is clear: a Syria ruled by Islamists right next door to you is not good," Tigran Meloyan, an analyst at the Center for Mediterranean Studies at the National Research University Higher School of Economics, explained to Izvestia.
However, it should be recognized that the threat of terrorist groups spreading against the backdrop of possible chaos in Syria threatens the Middle East as a whole, as well as Central Asia and the Caucasus. It should be recalled that the participation of the Russian Armed Forces in the Syrian conflict on the side of the government forces was aimed at eliminating the "hotbed of international terrorism" in the country, as Russian President Vladimir Putin said in March 2016.
Tigran Meloyan did not rule out that destabilization in Syria may lead to an influx of militants from Qatiba Tawhid wal-Jihad (banned in Russia), Hayat Tahrir al-Sham and related organizations to the countries of Central Asia and the Caucasus, which, of course, will create an additional burden on Russian agencies that control migration flows.
- The lessons of Afghanistan, Iraq, Libya and Syria speak for themselves: civil wars not only create humanitarian disasters, but also remain a breeding ground for terrorist networks that can reach each and every one of us. Terrorism does not stand still; it is a contagion that spreads like the plague," he said.
What awaits Syria after the change of power
It is worth recognizing that Syria's slide into the chaos of civil war is one of the most realistic scenarios at the moment. Russia, given the conflict in Ukraine, is unlikely to become involved in Syria's problems to the same extent as it did in 2015. U.S. President-elect Donald Trump has also written that what is happening in Syria does not concern the United States, which "will not intervene in the situation." Although this, of course, does not mean that Washington will not help the same Israel on the Syrian track.
Be that as it may, for the moment, Syria's National Coalition of Opposition and Revolutionary Forces (NCROF) has declared its intention to form an inclusive transitional authority in the republic. However, there is no guarantee that a government capable of controlling the situation will actually emerge in Syria.
Opposition groups are united in their desire to overthrow President Assad, but it will be very difficult for them to build a new Syria together, agrees Elena Suponina.
- For some time the opposition will be on a wave of euphoria, they will be engaged in the distribution of power, but then the fight for financial flows and power will begin. It should not be forgotten that the opposition is initially divided for ideological, religious and other reasons. In addition, we should take into account the huge number of weapons in the hands of the population. Therefore, new armed conflicts are inevitable, and the lines of division, especially in areas densely populated by Kurds, will also persist. Clashes between individual Kurdish formations, despite the fact that America has taken them very tightly under its wing, and those groups that are under the influence of Turkey, will take place," she added.
According to Tigran Miloyan, the country may split into several autonomous provinces, and some regional or great powers will take patronage over them.
In light of what happened in Syria, it becomes clear why Moscow has repeatedly reiterated that freezing the conflict in Ukraine along the line of contact is unacceptable. If in the case of the "Minsk format" Russia played a proactive role by launching a special military operation and thwarting Kiev's plans to attack Donbass, Syria showed that freezing the conflict within the framework of the "Astana format" led to its unfreezing at the most inopportune moment and on the most unfavorable terms.
Such distractions can lead to a variety of scenarios: from the appearance of NATO "peacekeepers" in Ukraine to the intensification of work on the creation of a "dirty bomb", summarized Tigran Miloyan.
