Lands of Fire: What the new escalation in the Middle East is related to
The new aggravation of the crisis in Syria and its rapid development gradually leads to the involvement of more and more regional and global players. "Izvestia" tells whose interests have collided in Syria and what goals the opposing sides are pursuing.
Turkey
Ankara does not hide its interest in what is happening. Moreover, Turkish officials directly declare support for the militants. "Idlib, Hama, Homs and, of course, Damascus. This march of the opposition continues. We hope that this march in Syria will continue without incidents and problems. We have extended our hand to Bashar al-Assad, but he has not responded," said Recep Tayyip Erdogan.
As analysts write, Ankara supports the terrorist group Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS, banned in Russia), and the so-called "Syrian National Army". The former, made up of fighters from all over the world (according to some reports, 80%), constitute the main strike force.
It is noteworthy that the Western media, as well as the Turkish government, continue to create an image of political opposition to the HTS. Abu Mohammed al-Julani, the head of the organization, which recently functioned as the Syrian wing of al-Qaeda (an organization recognized as a terrorist organization and banned in Russia), gave an interview to CNN on December 6. In it, he declared the goals of overthrowing Bashar al-Assad and "building a new Syria." This has already happened in Libya, reminds Orientalist Andrei Ontikov.
- What Julani is doing now, legitimizing himself as a politician, is very similar to what Abdel Hakim Belhadj, the former head of al-Qaeda's wing, did when he attacked Tripoli and actually overthrew the Gaddafi regime. Immediately after his victory, he began actively promoting himself as a businessman and politician, and the Western media actively helped him to do so. Now the White House has a very simple choice between Assad and Julani, it is clear who they choose," the expert summarizes.
As for Ankara's interests, the further development of events is associated with certain risks for it, emphasizes Yuri Mavashev, director of the Center for the Study of New Turkey.
- Success for Turkey is not guaranteed, the game is very risky, first of all, for internal Turkish security. However, if it had not been started now, others would have taken the initiative. And then there is the Kurdish issue. Especially if the operation drags on. However, for now, its pace should satisfy Ankara," the Izvestia interlocutor admits.
"Hezbollah
Hezbollah, whose involvement in the crisis has been widely doubted, has nevertheless announced that it is sending "control forces" to Syria. Earlier, Hezbollah Secretary General Naim Qassem said he supported the government of Bashar al-Assad. "These groups want to topple the regime and sow chaos in Syria, to turn Syria from a resistance camp into a camp that helps Israeli enemies," he said.
During the 2011-15 crisis, the movement provided significant support to Damascus and its allies in pushing out terrorist groups. However, Hezbollah's real potential is now significantly limited, according to Orientalist Kirill Semyonov.
- "It is problematic for Hezbollah to provide large-scale assistance in Syria. The situation in Lebanon remains unstable. This means that military action against Israel could resume at any moment. So the scope of potential assistance is very limited. But it should be borne in mind that Hezbollah units of several thousand people have been present in Syria all this time," the expert says.
Iran
In addition to known ties with Hezbollah, Iran is represented by the Shiite militia Hashd al-Shaabi, which reportedly moved from Iraqi territory on December 2 to support the Syrian army through the Abu Kemal border crossing. In addition, according to Western media reports, Tehran has increased the number of its military advisers and plans to send arms. However, all this may not be enough, emphasizes Grigory Lukyanov, deputy dean of the Oriental Faculty of the State Academy of Sciences of Azerbaijan.
- Hezbollah's support played a huge role in the Syrian crisis of 2011-15. At that time, its units (about 20,000 people) took over many operations together with the IRGC and the Shiite militia. The collective intervention of more serious players is necessary to turn the situation around," Lukyanov points out.
Earlier there was information about the alleged discussion of joint actions between Iran and Iraq, but Baghdad hastened to declare that it would not intervene "militarily". Yasser Iskander, a member of the Security and Defense Committee of the Iraqi Council of Representatives, told Baghdad Today.
A separate subject is Iranian-Turkish relations, which analysts admit are extremely complex. On the one hand, Ankara has previously assisted Tehran in evading sanctions, while on the other hand it clearly plays along with Israel's strategy in the region. Iran openly accuses Erdogan's government of preparing, planning and financing the terrorist operation.
Moreover, official Tehran warns Turkey of consequences that will affect its own security. "The terrorist threat will not be limited to Syria. It is also a threat to its neighbors and the entire Middle East region as a whole. It will spread to neighboring countries like Iraq, Jordan and Turkey if it is not nipped in the bud. Terrorism knows no borders - this must be remembered," Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.
Israel
At the official level, West Jerusalem does not comment on the situation, but in the context of relations with Damascus (or rather, their actual absence), the escalation of the crisis, as in 2011, is fully in line with Israeli interests.
- Back in 2011, terrorists were treated in Israeli clinics, and UN observers' reports describe episodes of actual contact between IDF units in Syria and ISIS militants (a terrorist organization banned in Russia). In all this time, Israel has never once struck terrorist positions. And it also worked the other way around - the militants never touched Israel. A subtle hint of thick circumstances.
But the chaoticization of Syria may have a downside for Israel. West Jerusalem has a varied but not always successful track record of engaging with regional terrorist groups. And as in the case of Turkey, the consequences of certain tactical actions can be very negative in the long run, reminds Grigory Lukyanov.
- Ironically, the fall of the Assad regime may not be desirable for Israel, because despite recent statements, it is very difficult to predict the attitude of terrorist groups toward the West Jerusalem policy, for example, in the Gaza Strip. Especially in the face of their dramatic intensification. Nevertheless, under the current circumstances, the main threat now for Israel is the "Axis of Resistance" led by Iran. That means that the main task is to defeat the pro-Iranian forces before Trump enters the White House. Therefore, a position may well mature in Israel, according to which Syria must be finished off. At the same time, Israel will oppose with all its might the prospect of the Iranian regular army entering the territory of Syria," the expert believes.
The US and the Trump factor
In the Middle East it is expected that the regional policy of the new master of the White House will differ in many respects from the strategy of the American liberal elites. Despite the fact that its contours are still undefined, and forecasts are based essentially only on individual personnel appointments, Trump has at least already made it clear to regional partners that he will not allow the United States to be involved in another major war. In late November, it was reported that he demanded that Benjamin Netanyahu end the military operation in southern Lebanon and the Gaza Strip by January 20 (the date of Trump's inauguration). Here, however, the initiative does not formally come from West Jerusalem, which means that in order to regain ground in the region, the US will have to divert its efforts toward goals not yet set. They, in turn, will depend on the realities that will emerge in Syria by the end of January.
However, all of this is only expected. At the moment, the U.S. has 9 military bases in Syria, where fighters of Kurdish formations were trained until recently. One of them, the "Syrian Democratic Forces" (SDF), on Friday announced the capture of several settlements in the province of Deir ez-Zor. By the way, Turkey considers the SDF to be a terrorist entity linked to the Kurdistan Workers' Party. Nevertheless, the time factor plays a very important role in the development of events, recognizes Andrei Ontikov.
- If Trump starts dealing with the Ukrainian issue in the way he has stated, it will eventually lead to the release of substantial Russian resources. Syria, in and of itself, interests him only as a factor affecting Israel's security. It should be recalled that in his first term he planned to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria altogether, but was quickly persuaded to do so.
It is noteworthy that despite the escalation of violence and the expansion of the crisis, there has been no reaction so far from either the UN or the Arab League.
