Bowing to the Sultan: Ankara suspected of destabilizing the situation in Syria
Ankara has faced diplomatic pressure from different sides. Iran suspected Turkey of destabilizing the situation in Syria, accusing it of supporting anti-government forces and fueling the conflict. Russian President Vladimir Putin during a telephone conversation with his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan called to stop the escalation in Syria "using Ankara's capabilities", and the head of the U.S. State Department Anthony Blinken demanded from Ankara "to curb the Syrian Islamists". Details of what is happening - in the material "Izvestia".
Accused Turkey of supporting militants
"During the visit of Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi to Ankara, important negotiations were held, within the framework of which a clear message was conveyed to the Islamic Republic of Iran about its firm support for Syria in the fight against terrorism. The Turkish Foreign Minister was briefed in detail on the latest developments in Syria. It was stated that all countries in the Middle East, especially Syria's neighbors, will come to the conclusion that terrorism is a virus," Tasnim news agency described the foreign minister's visit to the Turkish capital.
According to Arakci, "If the countries of the Middle East do not cooperate and participate in solving the problem of terrorism, all countries in the region will definitely suffer from it."
Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi
As Middle East Eye later reported, citing sources familiar with the situation, the Iranian foreign minister's trip took place in a rather tense atmosphere. In particular, Araqchi, who met with Syrian President Bashar al-Assad, accused Turkey of facilitating the offensive of Syrian militants.
The publication noted that Ankara had expected a message from the Syrian leader aimed at encouraging a diplomatic solution to the conflict, but did not receive it.
"He did not bring anything from Assad," explained a source familiar with the situation at the talks. Instead, the Iranian foreign minister expressed Tehran's displeasure, accusing Turkey of "betrayal and supporting the rebel offensive." In addition, the minister emphasized that Iran would support Bashar al-Assad under any circumstances.
The day after the talks, Tehran upped the ante by saying it would consider sending troops to Syria if Damascus requests it.
Iran calls for a settlement of the situation in Syria through the Astana format, a platform created under the auspices of Russia, Turkey and Iran.
At the same time, an adviser to Iran's supreme leader Ali Akbar Velayati said in an interview that Ankara "fell into the trap" of Washington and Tel Aviv, which Iran and its allies blame for the outbreak of violence in Syria.
Turkish publications, citing sources in the republic's Foreign Ministry, report that the Astana Troika (Russia, Turkey and Iran) may meet on Saturday, December 7, in Doha at the level of foreign ministers to discuss the situation in Syria. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has already arrived on a visit to Qatar, where the Doha Forum, a regional platform for dialog on cooperation in a changing world, is scheduled to be held from December 7-8.
The Russian minister, in an interview with American journalist Tucker Carlson, also expressed hope that he would be able to meet with the foreign ministers of Turkey and Iran at an international conference in Doha and discuss Syria.
Moscow and Washington are not happy
Recently, relations between Turkey and Iran have often been at odds. The war in the Gaza Strip has repeatedly become an occasion for this. Tehran has repeatedly tried to persuade Ankara to cut all economic and diplomatic ties with Tel Aviv, but Turkey has been reluctant to do so.
The day before, Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan spoke by phone with U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken. According to the Israeli newspaper Kan, the head of the State Department demanded that Turkey "curb Islamist groups in Syria."
Ankara denies that it has provided any support to the Syrian rebels, although the offensive is actually being carried out from its formal area of responsibility in Syria.
Russian President Vladimir Putin and his Turkish counterpart Recep Tayyip Erdogan also discussed the situation in Syria during a telephone conversation.
The Kremlin said that the Russian leader "emphasized the need for an early cessation of terrorist aggression against the Syrian state by radical groups and full support for the efforts of the legitimate authorities to restore stability and constitutional order throughout the country, in particular using Ankara's capabilities in the region".
However, it is possible that Turkey will not benefit from the current situation in Syria. As The Financial Times reports with reference to an unnamed retired Turkish diplomat, Ankara "may sink into a quagmire," taking control of Aleppo is "designed to appeal to nationalist sentiments," and in fact the situation is fraught with deteriorating relations with Moscow and Washington, as well as an influx of new refugees to Turkey's borders.
What experts think
Danila Krylov, a researcher of the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department of the Institute of National Research Institute of the Russian Academy of Sciences, candidate of political sciences, said in a conversation with Izvestia that what is happening in Syria looks more like an attempt of many players to "catch fish in troubled waters.
- I don't really believe in the possibility of any agreements. And the fact that Russia, the U.S. and Iran are simultaneously urging Turkey to do something or not is left to the discretion of the Turkish comrades, who said at the beginning that they had nothing to do with it. In principle, it is now a good option for Turkey to solve the problem with the Kurds, who are currently under the American "protectorate" in the northeast of the country," the political scientist explained.
According to him, the big question now is whether the Syrians will be able to consolidate and independently defend their territory and their political sovereignty.
- Since they have strong consolidating motives inside the army. And the second question is to what extent Bashar al-Assad is ready to make political concessions to solve the Syrian crisis, because in principle, since 2018, since the Congress of Syrian National Dialogue, the whole process of resolving the Syrian crisis has been treading in one place. It is practically impossible to build a future stable state there without federalization, and Syrians refuse federalization as soon as they can," the expert believes.
Syrian President Bashar al-Assad
The expert added that the Syrian president had enough time to establish contact with Turkish leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan and all Arab states, but he did not use this time.
- For Russia, Syria is undoubtedly an important outpost and strategic node, a strategic hub for Russian influence in the Middle East and the Eastern Mediterranean, but at the same time, it does not look expedient to transfer there any resources that could help accelerate the end of the NWO," the analyst believes.
Krylov is sure that the Syrians and Iranians should agree first with themselves and then among themselves.
- Aleppo, which was lost at the beginning of the escalation of this conflict, is a territory that was initially under the protection of the Iranian side. The Russian presence there was very limited. At the same time, Iran, judging by some trends, was trying to find some points of contact with Western elites, perhaps to agree on something," the political scientist believes.
In his opinion, the agreements seem to have failed.
- Erdogan will now try to get maximum preferences. Now it looks as if everyone is bowing to the Turkish sultan to solve the issue in their favor. Under such conditions, the Turks are likely to continue their multi-stool game, in which they are great masters," the expert said.
He added that Turkey will beat out maximum economic and political preferences.
- I do not believe too much in the possibility of reaching agreements and the biggest question is what to do in this situation with the "Astana format", which is bursting at the seams. In the current circumstances, the Turks have still played into the hands of the US, Israel and Britain," the specialist explained.
In his opinion, it is possible that the U.S. and Britain also took part in the escalation.
- Judging by the number of videos and taking into account that a new round of information warfare in the Middle East has begun. Under such conditions, long-term agreements are unlikely and unattainable, and most importantly, there are no guarantees that they will be maintained for a long time," the expert summarized.
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist, author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gates", noted in a conversation with Izvestia that the Syrian army has lost Hama, a city that is an important strategic point, in a short period of time.
- The situation for the Syrian army is quite sad. The factor of surprise, on which the militants relied, has been extinguished, but so far the advance of the terrorists can not be stopped. Hama is now in the hands of the militants, and next will be Homs, which has an important position," the political analyst explained.
He emphasized that the city actually stands at the crossroads of several roads, one going towards populated areas in the south, including Damascus, and the second - west towards Latakia, where the Russian airbase is located.
- We'll see what happens to Homs, whether it falls as quickly as Hama, and whether we'll still see militant advances. If so, things will turn out very badly for both the Syrian army and the Russian military contingent," the expert fears.
The expert believes that of the pluses that exist now - the surprise factor is not as strong as it was in the first days of the attack, as well as full control of the sky over Syria by Syrian and Russian aviation.
- It is possible to strike the militants almost unhindered. The only thing that is confusing is that the latter have managed to seize some air defense systems; the full nomenclature of these systems is not yet quite clear. At the moment there is no question of any agreements - the most active phase of hostilities is underway. Besides, what kind of agreements can there be with the militants of Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (an organization that is recognized as a terrorist organization at various levels by some states, including the Russian Federation)," the analyst added.
According to the orientalist, it will be the development of the situation on the battlefield that will be decisive, and only on the basis of this can any agreements be reached later.
