Threaten he will: will the US approach to BRICS change under Trump
The United States under the current administration does not oppose the BRICS expansion. Washington believes that all countries can choose the groups they want to join, the United States Embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. But the White House's approach could change with Donald Trump's return to it. He has already threatened to impose a duty of 100% on goods from the states in the association and close the US market if they abandon the dollar and approve their own currency for settlements. Whether the President-elect can toughen the American approach to BRICS and what are connected with such sharp statements of Trump - in the material "Izvestia".
The West's attitude to BRICS
The current US administration is not against the BRICS expansion.
- The United States believes that all countries can choose the countries and groups with which they are associated, and is convinced of the value of international cooperation to promote sustainable development," the American embassy in Moscow told Izvestia. - The United States engages bilaterally with many individual countries that make up BRICS.
Despite its tough course toward Russia and other states of the Global South, the Joe Biden administration has not criticized or hindered the expansion of the association in any way, at least publicly. In particular, John Kirby, coordinator for strategic communications on the White House National Security Council, said that the United States did not view the group as some kind of threat. Although mainstream U.S. media and nonprofit organizations have actively promoted the narrative that Washington cannot ignore the "challenges" posed by the BRICS. Most notably, media pressure intensified during the association's summit in Kazan this October.
And it seems that it is with Donald Trump's arrival in the White House that Washington's policy towards BRICS may change. The president-elect, who regularly criticizes parts of the American press for bias, essentially adheres to the concept that the actions of the association could pose a serious threat to the States, primarily in economic terms. Trump and his team are primarily concerned about the risk that the BRICS countries, whose share in the world gross domestic product already exceeds the G7, could reduce the role of the U.S. currency in the global financial system.
Against this background, Trump recently said that attempts by the countries of the association to move away from the dollar from now on will not go unnoticed. According to him, Washington requires a commitment from the states not to create a new BRICS currency or support some other currency to replace the "mighty US dollar".
"Otherwise they will face 100 percent tariffs and say goodbye to selling goods to the wonderful US economy. They can go and find another sucker! There is no way the BRICS will replace the US dollar in international trade, and any country that tries to do so should wave goodbye to America," Donald Trump said.
Moving away from the dollar is not an end in itself for the BRICS countries, but the process of dedollarization seems to have become irreversible, especially in the group's space. And all this is primarily due to the sanctions policy of the United States. "We never abandoned the dollar! Did we refuse it? It was us who were denied its use. And as they say in our country: what we fought for, we ran into. We ran into the problems of the dollar itself. Now, of course, we have to think about what to do next. It all comes from self-confidence and arrogance, including in the economy," said Vladimir Putin on December 4.
According to the Russian leader, the use of the dollar as the world's reserve currency brings the United States "unearned money in large amounts." Over the past 10 years, the United States has received $10 trillion "just like that, from the sky, for the fact of using the dollar as the world's settlement reserve currency," the president said. He said the United States has been exploiting the economies of other countries with the help of the dollar, but now the currency's influence on the global financial system is shrinking.
The consistent development of BRICS can significantly reformat the current world order and international institutions, including financial ones.
- The group could be a precursor to a more adequate reform of the UN. And it can work out models that would reflect the current reality. The IMF and the WTO have ceased to function normally because they have not adapted to the current times. And here we have the first test of the pen - the New Development Bank. A system based on the dollar is incomplete and can even threaten the sovereignty of individual countries," Victoria Panova, head of the BRICS Expert Council, told Izvestia.
Unlike Republicans, Democrats have always had a more positive attitude toward multilateral institutions and international organizations, seeing them as an important part of the global order, said Dmitry Novikov, head of the Laboratory of Political Geography and Contemporary Geopolitics at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
- While John Bolton, when he was the US representative to the UN (back in 2004), openly criticized this organization and said that the meaning of the UN is to be an institutional embodiment of the will of Washington and the international community led by it, the Democrats, on the contrary, sought to develop cooperation within the framework of traditional institutions like the UN and such platforms as the G7 and G20. In this sense, they look more calmly at those multilateral institutions that represent an alternative to the US-led formats," the expert said.
In his opinion, the Democrats also believe that alternatives should be confronted, but they should do it calmly, swaying other countries to their side, developing their formats and initiatives - unlike the Republicans, who, judging by Trump's rhetoric, just want to destroy everything. Although it is not necessary to take his statement about BRICS seriously, as it may be aimed more at a "domestic audience," he summarized.
Why Trump is concerned about BRICS development
However, it should be noted that the leaders of the countries of the association have repeatedly noted that it is too early to talk about the creation of a single BRICS currency, and there is no such goal. One way or another, there will be no 100 percent duties, as such a step would cause serious damage to the United States, says Mikhail Mironyuk, associate professor of the Department of Politics and Management at the National Research University Higher School of Economics.
The United States is highly interdependent on many BRICS members, especially China, India and Brazil. The U.S. national debt recently reached an all-time high of over $36 trillion. It is worth recalling that in June 2023, Joe Biden suspended the national debt limit until January 2025. In September, China became the second largest holder of the United States debt - it has $772 billion. India ranked 13th with $247 billion, and Brazil 14th with $235 billion.
- BRICS is in a sense a mirror image of the G7, although BRICS+ is the Non-Aligned Movement, but on economic steroids (or with the prospect of acquiring a real economic component). It is, first of all, a platform on which and thanks to which, in different modes, participants and partners can solve problems that are significant for themselves without the participation of the "indispensable nation" and organizations with its participation. Will the representatives of the "indispensable nation" like this? The answer is obvious: no," says Mikhail Mironyuk.
In his opinion, no hegemon in its heyday or in a state of decline will tolerate someone who in one way or another encroaches on its position, and the point here is not only and not so much in economic interests. "Almost all BRICS countries trade with the United States, but Trump and his supporters want not only to trade, but to trade more and only with them, as well as love them immensely," the expert explained.
What is only worth the situation around US-China relations during Trump's presidency. Then he publicly stated: tariff wars with countries that have a trade surplus with the U.S. are "good wars that are easy to win." That's why the Republican will continue to pursue such a policy, Mironyuk believes.
So far, the main fear of the president-elect is the adoption of a new currency for trade between countries of the Global South, which could put under great question the further functioning of international financial institutions, which have been controlled by the U.S. since the adoption of the Bretton Woods system.
- Dedollarization had been actively discussed earlier, then it was slightly overshadowed, and gradually there was a return to these ideas. And this return is due not only to the desire of Russia or China, but also to the fact that the dollar, SWIFT and other standards and rules that were introduced in the field of international trade, the West itself has ceased to comply, and began to use its own tools as weapons, including illegitimate sanctions," says Victoria Panova.
In her opinion, even India and the UAE, which get along well with the U.S. in connection with the actions of the West, realize that everything can change overnight, so they want to insure themselves against the negative impact of dependence on the Western financial system.
Against this background, it cannot be ruled out that the Trump administration will try to actively hinder the further expansion of BRICS and the implementation of various projects within the framework of this association, experts agree.
