The case of the virus: winter flu surge expected in late December
11 Russian cities have exceeded the epidemic threshold for influenza and acute respiratory viral infections, the Influenza Research Institute has reported. The acute situation is observed, in particular, in Vladivostok, Barnaul, Bryansk and Voronezh. And according to Rospotrebnadzor, the bulk of the disease incidence is in the Moscow region and St. Petersburg. This year the ARVI spreads later than usual, experts note. They expect two outbreaks of morbidity - at the end of December and in the second half of January.
How many people fell ill with influenza
The incidence of influenza and other ARVI in late November in Russia amounted to 64.4 cases per 10 thousand people. This is above the weekly epidemic threshold by 0.8%, follows from the data of the Research Institute of Influenza. Rospotrebnadzor specified that during the week - from November 25 to December 1 - the number of those who fell ill with flu and ARVI in Russia increased by 5% compared to the previous week. A total of 769.5 thousand people were diagnosed with "influenza" and "acute respiratory viral infection".
Epidemic thresholds of morbidity, according to the Research Institute of Influenza, are exceeded by 20% or more in 11 cities - Barnaul, Bryansk, Vladivostok, Voronezh, Kemerovo, Kirov, Murmansk, Orenburg, Simferopol, Ulan-Ude and Chita. This situation has remained stable since the beginning of November.
Thus, in Bryansk region, according to the local Rospotrebnadzor, from November 25 to December 2, the incidence of ARVI and influenza increased by 5% compared to the previous week. In the region, most often the diseases are registered in children - they account for 62.5% of thetotal number of infections.
In the Kirov region the incidence of the disease in the 48th week of the year compared to the previous week increased by 3.03%. In the department of Rospotrebnadzor for the region noted that the indicator corresponds to the season, and the weekly epidemic threshold is not exceeded.
According to the interregional department of Rospotrebnadzor for Crimea and Sevastopol, the incidence of the disease in the republic remains at the level of the previous week, while in Sevastopol it increased by 9.4%.
Exceeding the average Russian indicator is observed in 45 regions of the country, 17.5% of morbidity falls on Moscow, Moscow region and St. Petersburg, specified in Rospotrebnadzor. Last week, the epidemic threshold was exceeded in 44 regions, and in early November - in 45. That is, the level of morbidity remained stable for at least a month.
"The situation on influenza and ARVI corresponds to the epidemic season, - reported on the website of the service's management in the capital. - Compared to the previous week, there is a slight increase in morbidity among all age groups."
On the site of Rospotrebnadzor administration in the Moscow region it is noted that last week the level of ARVI incidence in the region did not exceed the threshold values. And in St. Petersburg, the regional agency provides data on the incidence of acute respiratory viral infections and influenza for the period from November 18 to 25: compared with the previous week, it increased by 4.38%.
According to the Influenza Research Institute, subtypes of influenza A - swine flu and Hong Kong flu - as well as influenza type B are spreading in Russia.
When to expect the peak of morbidity
Last year, the incidence of viral infections peaked in early December, recalled Polina Arimova, an allergist-immunologist at Dr. Alexandrovsky Medical Center.
The surge of respiratory infections in late fall - early winter is primarily due to weather conditions, said Marina Berezhnaya, head of the emergency and urgent care department of the European Medical Center (EMC). According to her, sharp temperature changes and reduction of daylight hours, lack of vitamins increase susceptibility to viruses.
The crowding of people in rooms and public places also leads to an increase in the number of infections, she added.
- The peak of morbidity can occur at different times each year. New Year's vacations and the separation of labor and children's groups stabilize the situation a bit. But after people return from trips and mass events during the vacations, there may again be an increase in the incidence of the disease, - said the expert.
Roman Ivanov, a doctor at the Hemotest laboratory, noted that the onset of peak incidence may vary from region to region. This, he said, is due to different weather conditions and the number of people who have been vaccinated.
Therapist Svetlana Kanevskaya suggested that the peak incidence of respiratory infections will be in the second half of December.
- At this time everyone will be actively preparing for the holidays, mass shopping and corporate parties, and the accumulation of people increases the risk of spread of infection, - she explained.
During the New Year vacations, she said, people will have fewer mass meetings, and the peak incidence will decrease.
- But in the second half of January and early February, everyone will go to work, to schools and kindergartens, and we will again see a surge in morbidity," she emphasized.
The expert also noted that this year there is a late spread of respiratory infections. According to her, this is due to the abnormally hot fall.
When you can get a flu shot
Vaccination does not prevent the risk of infection, but significantly reduces the likelihood of severe course and the development of dangerous complications, said Roman Ivanov. According to him, it is not too late to get a flu shot in early winter.
- The drug will take effect in two or three weeks: even if the peak of the disease is close, the body will still get support, - he emphasized. - Vaccination is relevant throughout the epidseason, which usually lasts until the end of winter and even the beginning of spring.
Marina Berezhnaya agreed with him.
- It is the right time to immunize against influenza. The peak of morbidity has not yet come, so the body will have time to prepare for a meeting with the virus, - she said.
Andrei Pozdnyakov reminded that in addition to vaccination to prevent infection with respiratory infections it is necessary to observe sanitary and hygienic measures, avoid hypothermia, minimize stress and observe the regime of sleep and wakefulness.
The current weather conditions are optimal for the spread of influenza and acute respiratory viral infections, added Invitro infectious disease doctor Andrei Pozdnyakov.
- The temperature from -10 to +10 degrees is optimal for viruses, - he reminded.
At -15 degrees and below the air becomes drier, airborne transmission is reduced, the expert said.
