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- Peaceful entreaties: why Scholz went to Kiev for the first time in two and a half years
Peaceful entreaties: why Scholz went to Kiev for the first time in two and a half years
Olaf Scholz, who recently discussed the Ukrainian crisis with Russian President Vladimir Putin, is trying to demonstrate to voters his desire to help end the conflict, which certainly has a negative effect on Germany itself. For this purpose, according to experts interviewed by Izvestia, the FRG Chancellor arrived in Kiev on December 2 with an unexpected visit - this is his first trip there in two and a half years. On that day Berlin revealed the composition of the new package of military aid to the AFU in the amount of €650 million. It is important for the FRG to show that it remains on Kiev's side - it is in this context that we should consider the new package, which has rather a symbolic value, as it is not capable of affecting the course of hostilities in the combat zone in any way.
Olaf Scholz visited Kiev forthe first time in two and a half years
German Chancellor Olaf Scholz arrived in Kiev with an unannounced visit on the morning of December 2. In addition to talks, he and Volodymyr Zelensky visited a military hospital, where the German chancellor was able to talk to wounded soldiers. This is the second time he has visited Ukraine since the beginning of the SWO. The previous visit to Kiev took place in the summer of 2022.
At the same time, Scholz and Zelensky spoke on the phone at the end of last week. Then the German chancellor promised that Berlin will continue to provide military support to Kiev. Before that, in mid-November, Scholz contacted Vladimir Putin by phone. At the same time, the Kremlin emphasized that the Russian president had not passed any message for Zelensky through the German chancellor.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
Speaking to reporters on December 2, Putin 's spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that the Kremlin was closely following Scholz's visit to Ukraine, nevertheless not pinning high hopes on him.
"Germany continues its line of unconditional support for Ukraine. At the same time, we can really just recall with satisfaction that recently there was the first contact between the Russian President and the German Chancellor in a long time. Dialogue, of course, is always a positive phenomenon," Peskov noted.
Scholz's visit to Ukraine ahead of early elections to the Bundestag (scheduled for February 23, 2025) is probably intended to show the German electorate that the chancellor accepts attempts to come to a peaceful settlement of the conflict in Eastern Europe.
- One of the components of the election strategy of the Social Democrats and Chancellor Scholz personally is the desire to show readiness for a diplomatic settlement of the Ukrainian conflict, which corresponds to the request of part of the German electorate. The concrete result of this diplomatic activity is not so important, at least until the election date," says Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the Institute of International Relations of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations of the Russian Foreign Ministry.
At the same time, in Germany, the demand for the end of the conflict is linked to the economic agenda, among other things. The Ukrainian crisis affects the lives of ordinary Germans. For example, earlier the media wrote that in the first six months of 2024 the number of bankruptcies in Germany increased by 41%. In addition, in November 2024, prices in Germany, calculated by national standards, rose by 2.2% compared to the same month in 2023.
Friedrich Merz is considered as an alternative to Scholz in the upcoming elections - the opposition CDU/CSU bloc nominated him as Chancellor. However, many believe that his arrival could lead to a further escalation of the Ukrainian crisis, says German political analyst Ike Hamer. Therefore, a demonstration of interest in ending the conflict may give Scholz and his party extra points. We will remind, the chairman of the CDU Friedrich Merz earlier claimed that in case of victory in the elections intends to call on Russia within twenty-four hours to stop hostilities in Ukraine. In case of refusal, he may supply Kiev with long-range Taurus missiles.
Now the rating of Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party of Germany continues to fall and is only about 15%. By comparison, the Free Democratic Party, which left the ruling coalition, has a rating in the neighborhood of 4-5%. The leader, as before, remains the opposition bloc of the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union with a rating of 32%. In second place is the party "Alternative for Germany" with 18%.
It is noteworthy that the head of the German Foreign Ministry Annalena Berbock went to China in the same days. And the main purpose of her visit she called the start of the peace process in Ukraine. The PRC is considered a country that can play a key role in the settlement of the conflict. First of all, Beijing presented its plan on Ukraine more than a year ago. In May 2024, the PRC and Brazil have already published a joint initiative, which has been welcomed by over 110 countries so far. Beijing and Brasilia have also established a "Friends of Peace" platform to discuss ways to resolve the conflict.
"Exchanges and diplomacy are more important than ever - even with those who see things differently than we do. In order to protect our values and interests, it is important to constantly advocate that cooperation is better than confrontation, but at the same time not to be naive," the German foreign minister said.
What Scholz and Zelensky are discussing
The main purpose of Scholz's visit, as German media believe, is to understand what Zelensky is ready to do to resolve the conflict between Russia and Ukraine. In particular, it should not be ruled out that the chancellor discussed with him the possibility of territorial concessions, a topic that has recently become more and more frequently raised in the Western media.
By the way, at a press conference with the Chancellor of Germany, Zelensky was asked what Russia should do to settle the Ukrainian conflict. And it is not even the insulting answer of the man who is recognized in the West as the president of Ukraine that draws attention - he said: "Preferably to three letters" - but the approving grin at this moment on Scholz's part.
From left to right: Chancellor Olaf Scholz and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky (term expires May 20, 2024)
Meanwhile, on Dec. 2, former NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg, who was appointed to head the Munich Security Conference, called temporary territorial concessions by Ukraine likely to end the conflict as soon as possible. "We need a ceasefire line, and of course that line should ideally include all the territories that Russia controls to date <...>. However, we see that this is not entirely realistic in the near future," Stoltenberg said.
Prior to that, in mid-November, Politico's sources in the US Republican Party reported that Ukraine was offered to make "serious territorial concessions" in return for the "freedom and independence" of 80 percent of the population. At the same time, the Washington Post's sources in the European establishment said that among Kiev's allies "there is a quiet but growing shift" toward the idea that negotiations are possible only in the case of territorial concessions.
Kiev, however, denies such talks, naturally, more on the official level. Although, as Zelensky told the British channel Sky News, a ceasefire without the return of Ukrainian territories may be possible if the country becomes a NATO member. And he admitted to the Japanese agency Kyodo: the AFU is not capable of returning the lost territories.
No less important in the context of Scholz's visit to Ukraine are the negotiations on the supply of Western long-range weapons to the AFU. Germany still refuses to transfer Taurus missiles to Kiev. At the same time, Berlin announced on December 2, the day of Scholz's visit, that it would supply weapons worth €650 million, including IRIS-T air defense systems, Leopard 1 tanks, reconnaissance and attack drones, but long-range missiles are still taboo. According to the latest opinion poll conducted by the research institute Infratest dimap for the ARD TV channel, 60% of Germans oppose the transfer of the Taurus to Ukraine.
- Scholz is quite consistent in his stance on Taurus deliveries. They will mean the presence of German specialists on the territory of Ukraine, who will take care of these missiles, because it is impossible to transfer these complexes to the Ukrainian side in any other way. The process of such deliveries cannot go quickly, in fact, all this will mean a long process of introducing NATO military countries into Ukraine, which will mean another round of conflict escalation, which Berlin is not ready for," Artem Sokolov believes.
At the same time, on December 2, it became known that the German government intends to modernize 479 cruise missiles Taurus and spend on this €829.8 million. As a result, the range of flight at low altitudes will increase, and they will be able to hit targets even if the GPS signal is disrupted. In addition, the German Defense Ministry plans to equip the troops with completely new Taurus missiles, which will cost almost €2.1 billion.
Military aid to Kiev in the amount of €650 million will have no significance in the context of air defense and will definitely not affect the course of hostilities. However, in this way, Scholz may be trying to avoid being in the camp of "European traitors" who do not give Ukraine what it demands. It is known that the Federal Republic of Germany, although it remains one of Kiev's main donors, did not immediately, for example, give the go-ahead to supply tanks to Kiev. In addition, Germany stands out against the background of France, Great Britain and the United States, which have already officially authorized strikes with their long-range missiles deep into Russian territory. In one way or another, Scholz's visit and the allocation of another package of military aid are directly related to the aforementioned election campaign in Germany.
Chancellor of the Federal Republic of Germany Olaf Scholz
- It is now important for Scholz to make maximum use of his chancellor status to raise both his personal rating and that of the SPD. This includes a phone call to President Putin and now a visit to Kiev. It is important for Scholz to show that under his leadership Germany is becoming a serious player with a decisive political weight in Europe, literally a "bastion of the liberal world," while bearing political responsibility for its fate. The only question is to what extent this is actually true, but no one has canceled the laws of the electoral struggle," political scientist Yevgenia Pimenova told Izvestia.
However, Scholz alone, even if he is interested in it, is hardly capable of solving the conflict in Ukraine. Much will depend on the position of Washington - if the United States after Donald Trump's arrival in the White House will refuse to raise the stakes in the conflict with Russia, we can talk about the likelihood of cessation of hostilities. After all, if supplies are stopped by the United States, European states will simply not be able to single-handedly finance Ukraine for a long time. And skepticism about the continuation of the conflict, which is now already present in the EU countries (if not on the part of the authorities, then at least at the level of the opposition), will only grow.
