North's failure: Israel not ready to return evacuated citizens to their homes

Israel will not yet return evacuated citizens to the north of the country, even though the agreement with Hezbollah has entered into force. Further steps will be discussed after the 60-day ceasefire expires, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's office told Izvestia. For now, the Israeli army will assess security on a daily basis, not only in relation to the threat from Hezbollah, but also on other fronts. The IDF has already reported more provocations from the Shiite movement after the agreement. What are the prospects for normalization of relations with Lebanon and the conclusion of a deal with Hamas - in the material "Izvestia".

Citizens of Israel cannot return home yet

Israel and the pro-Iranian Shiite group "Hezbollah" with the mediation of the United States reached an agreement on a ceasefire in Lebanon, where the militant formations of the organization are based. It came into force on November 27. Under the terms of the deal, Israel undertakes to withdraw its troops from Lebanon within 60 days, and Hezbollah - to move its armed groups north of the Litani River, which corresponds to UN Resolution 1701.

The simmering conflict between the Jewish state and the Shiite formation has escalated since last year, when Israel responded to an Oct. 7 Hamas attack and hostage-taking by launching an operation in the Gaza Strip, where militants of the group - incidentally another pro-Iranian proxy - are hiding. The IDF's action to eliminate the organization's leadership and militants has had devastating consequences for Gaza, especially for civilians. "Hezbollah, in a show of support for Palestinians from the Strip, began shelling northern Israel. As a result, at least a hundred thousand residents had to evacuate.

At the same time, despite the agreement reached, Israel is not ready to return its citizens to their homes in the northern part of the country. The authorities will take further steps in this direction after the expiration of the 60-day term of the agreement, Dmitry Gendelman, advisor to the Prime Minister of Israel, told Izvestia.

"So far there is no order for the evacuated residents of the north to return to their homes. Issues of Israel's further steps to return to peaceful life, including relations with its neighbors, will be discussed by the military-political cabinet following the results of the 60-day ceasefire," Benjamin Netanyahu's office clarified.

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For starters, the Israeli army must ensure compliance with the terms of the agreement and create a favorable environment for the return of displaced citizens.

- Security is being assessed every day, not only in relation to the threat from Hezbollah, but also on other fronts. "First and foremost, we will monitor Hezbollah's actions and stop their attempts to add to their arsenal of weapons and threaten our country," IDF spokeswoman Anna Ukolova told Izvestia.

This may well require increasing Israel's military contingent in the areas bordering Lebanon. According to Ukolova, such decisions will be taken gradually. Obviously, the return of citizens also depends on how quickly the cities damaged by Hezbollah's actions will be restored. A spokeswoman for the Israeli army told Izvestia that in a number of settlements more than 50% of private houses were partially or completely damaged by rocket fire.

Much remains to be done in the affected areas in southern Lebanon, although their residents are already beginning to return to their former lives. For example, restaurants, clothing and grocery stores have reopened in the Beirut suburb of Dahiyeh.

What to expect after the agreement between Israel and Hezbollah

It is noteworthy that Hezbollah was not directly involved in the ceasefire talks and has not officially commented on them so far. Nabih Berri, the speaker of the Lebanese parliament, acted as a mediator in the dialog. It is unclear how closely the Shiite group's representatives coordinate with Beirut and how the Lebanese leadership monitors compliance with the terms of the agreement, but the Israeli side has already reported new provocations.

- There have already been several attempts by Hezbollah militants to create provocations since the agreement came into effect. Unfortunately, experience shows that terrorist organizations do not always adhere to agreements," the IDF spokeswoman said.

According to the Israel Defense Forces, on November 28, several suspects were identified as having arrived in vehicles in several areas of southern Lebanon, thereby violating the terms of the ceasefire. As a result, the IDF opened fire on them.

The Lebanese army said on the same day that Israel had also violated the agreement several times since it came into force.

Violations of the agreements can be expected from both sides, Yelena Suponina, an orientalist and international political scientist, told Izvestia.

- During the 60-day period, there will certainly be violations of the agreements, as has happened in similar cases before. However, the parties are likely to "hold out" until Donald Trump's administration comes to power in the United States. Although it is worth noting an important point: the text of the agreement was worked out in close coordination between the Biden administration and the incoming Trump team," the expert noted.

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At least, the current agreement resembles the previous one, which the parties concluded at the end of the Second Lebanon War in 2006 in accordance with the same UN Security Council resolution. Despite numerous violations, the agreements were generally respected and the situation remained more or less calm. This time, according to Suponina, the circumstances are less favorable, although Hezbollah is weakened much more. In particular, the Israeli army has killed the movement's longtime leader, Hassan Nasrallah. "This is no longer the same Hezbollah, we took it back decades. We killed all the top officials of the organization, thousands of terrorists, we destroyed most of the rocket facilities and infrastructure built near our border," Netanyahu said on the occasion.

- The region continues to be turbulent. Much will change with Trump's arrival. Netanyahu still wants escalation in relations with Iran, and Lebanon will surely fall victim to these attempts again," the expert added.

Against this background, the normalization of dialogue between Israel and Lebanon looks unlikely. Let us remind that there are no diplomatic relations between the countries. And according to Israeli law, Lebanon is a "hostile state". The Prime Minister's office was rather reserved on this issue.

- The issue of normalizing relations with Lebanon will depend on a number of factors - mainly the stabilization of the political situation in that country, the abandonment of Lebanon's anti-Israeli position and other events that may occur in the region," Dmitry Gendelman told Izvestia.

So far, the closest prospect is the establishment of relations with Hamas, especially since they have expressed their willingness to discuss a ceasefire and a prisoner exchange deal mediated by Egypt, Qatar and Turkey. At least, the world community expects such a scenario after the success of negotiations with Hezbollah. However, the Palestinian movement claims that Israel is obstructing the initiative. Although only recently the Jewish state, mediated by the same Qatar, tried to negotiate a temporary ceasefire and the return of some hostages. In particular, two men with Russian citizenship are still being held in Gaza.

- The return of our kidnapped citizens is one of the main goals of the military operation in the Gaza Strip, and Israel is taking a number of measures of both military and political nature to achieve it," Gendelman emphasized.

The expert community believes that after the cessation of hostilities with Hezbollah, Israel can take advantage of the respite and "finish" Hamas. In addition, with the arrival of Donald Trump, who during his first presidential term pursued a very pro-Israeli policy, the U.S. may increase military support for the Jewish state. U.S. media believe that a potential agreement between Israel and Hamas is stalled due to a number of disagreements: over the withdrawal from Gaza and the future governance of the Strip.