Negotiating regression: Germany rules out resumption of high-level contacts with Russia

Germany rules out the resumption of high-level contacts with Russia, the German embassy in Moscow has told Izvestiya. Berlin also sees no grounds for negotiations with Moscow on Ukraine, the embassy said. Berlin assumes that the conflict can end only through negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. On November 15, Vladimir Putin and Olaf Scholz had their first telephone conversation in almost two years, the main topic of which was the Ukrainian conflict. For his part, the Russian presidential aide, Yuriy Ushakov, confirmed that the leaders had not agreed on further contacts, but at the same time, an operational communication between the aides had been agreed upon, which, according to Ushakov, happens from time to time. The expert community does not rule out that the German Chancellor may again initiate a conversation with the Russian leader: in the run-up to the early parliamentary elections in Germany, he is interested in showing German voters his readiness to participate in the settlement of the Ukrainian crisis.

Putin and Scholz talks

The November 15 telephone conversation between Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz does not seem to have triggered a resumption of Russian-German dialog on the Ukrainian settlement. Despite the fact that the head of the German government declares his intention to continue contacts with Moscow on the conflict in Ukraine, Germany sees no grounds for face-to-face talks between the two leaders.

- Such a meeting is not being considered now," Ingo Niemann, head of the press service of the German embassy in Moscow, told Izvestia in response to a question whether the possibility of a face-to-face meeting between Olaf Scholz and Vladimir Putin is being considered.

It is also difficult to speak about the intensification of the dialog between Russia and Germany on the line of foreign ministries. The nearest talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov and his counterpart Annalena Berbok could take place in Malta on the sidelines of the OSCE Council of Foreign Ministers, which will be held on December 5-6 (in early November, Russian Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said that Sergei Lavrov intended to attend). Nevertheless, preparations for the talks between the foreign ministers are not underway now either, the German embassy in Moscow noted.

- At present, there are no grounds for such contacts. In principle, only direct talks between Russia and Ukraine can lead to a just and lasting peace," Ingo Niemann said.

Vladimir Putin and Olaf Scholz called for the first time in almost two years at the initiative of the German side (the last conversation took place in December 2022). During the conversation, which lasted about an hour, the leaders, in particular, discussed the conflict in Ukraine, as well as the conditions for its settlement. The Russian president recalled that the current crisis was a direct result of NATO's long-term aggressive policy aimed at creating an anti-Russian bridgehead in Ukraine while ignoring Russia's security interests and violating the rights of Russian-speaking residents. At the same time, it remains unclear whether the leaders of Russia and Germany will hold new talks in the near future.

- The leaders did not agree on further contacts, but it was agreed that I would contact my colleague by phone if necessary, which, in fact, we do from time to time," Russian presidential aide Yury Ushakov said at a briefing on November 26, answering Izvestia's question.

Possibility of new talks between Putin and Scholz

Artem Sokolov, a researcher at the IMI of the Moscow State Institute of International Relations (MGIMO) of the Russian Foreign Ministry, believes that new high-level contacts between Russia and Germany are possible.

- There is no reason to believe that such contacts are impossible in the future. These are not the first telephone talks in the last two and a half years. Despite the fact that Scholz was criticized by his Western partners, this event was not in itself scandalous and unusual," he told Izvestia.

According to the analyst, the political conditions for a new conversation between the two politicians have not fundamentally changed. At the same time, the positions of Russia and Germany on the resolution of the Ukrainian conflict are diametrically opposed. Thus, Berlin continues to demand that Russia withdraw its troops from the territory of Ukraine, which, according to the German side, should be a condition for the start of peace talks. Russia has repeatedly noted that it is open to the resumption of the negotiation process, which was interrupted by Ukraine in 2022. However, possible agreements should take into account Russia's security interests, proceed from new territorial realities, and most importantly, address the root causes of the conflict.

Back in June, Vladimir Putin outlined a number of conditions for launching the peace process. Among them is the complete withdrawal of Ukrainian troops from the territory of the LNR, DNR, Kherson and Zaporizhzhya regions, and within their administrative boundaries, which existed at the time of their entry into Ukraine. Moscow is also ready to start peace talks with Kiev if it officially announces its refusal to join NATO. Other conditions include the demilitarization and denazification of Ukraine, Kiev's recognition of the new regions (including Crimea and Sevastopol) as part of Russia, and the lifting of all Western sanctions.

It is worth noting that the Federal Republic of Germany remains the largest arms supplier to Ukraine among European countries. According to the Kiel Institute of World Economy, the volume of military aid from Germany reached about €10.6 billion this fall. In October, the Germans sent Kiev a new package of military aid, which included armored vehicles, in particular, eight Leopard 1A5 tanks, six self-propelled howitzers PzH 2000 without ammunition, but separately the Germans supplied 224 thousand artillery shells of 155 mm caliber.

At the same time, Germany is the only major NATO country that has not authorized the use of long-range weapons for strikes deep into Russian territory. Recently, the US and UK lifted the ban on the AFU's use of ATACMS, HIMARS and Storm Shadow missiles against Russian rear areas. Back on November 18, Olaf Scholz again assured that Berlin does not intend to transfer to Ukraine Taurus cruise missiles, which are capable of reaching Moscow. It is worth noting that the majority of Germans are against the transfer of Taurus to Ukraine. According to the latest opinion poll conducted by the Infratest dimap research institute for the ARD TV channel, more than 60 percent of Germans are against it.

At the same time, it is possible that new contacts with Russia may be beneficial to Scholz in the run-up to the parliamentary elections to be held in Germany on February 23, 2025.

- Scholz is interested in working out the request of German voters to adjust Germany's foreign policy course within the framework of the Ukrainian crisis. How productive this can be is an open question. It depends on the specific content of the negotiations and how the discussion will proceed," Artem Sokolov said.

According to the analyst, Germany does not necessarily need to strive to achieve concrete successes in negotiations with Russia, and it is enough for it to simply show that Berlin is engaged in a dialog with Moscow, he summarized.

According to polls, now the rating of Olaf Scholz's Social Democratic Party of Germany continues to fall and is only about 14%. By comparison, the Free Democratic Party, which left the ruling coalition, has seen its rating rise to 5%. The leader, as before, remains the opposition bloc of the Christian Democratic and Christian Social Union with a rating of 32%. In second place is the party "Alternative for Germany" with 19%.