In the same den: automakers are getting crowded in Russia
The number of new models that have officially entered the Russian market this year has already exceeded a hundred, according to Avtostat analysts. At the same time, the number of new brands has decreased compared to last year. Experts believe that next year the diversity of the market will decrease, as some car brands will leave Russia. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Novelties are becoming more numerous
More than a hundred models have already been added to the Russian car market (including those that will appear before the end of the year), according to Avtostat. This exceeds the result of last year - the number of novelties did not reach a hundred.
Market leaders showed several new models. Thus, Naval launched the updated Jolion, H3, H9, restyled H5 and F7. The same number of new models was presented by Geely - Preface and Situgau, Atlas of new generation, updated Monjaro, restyled Okavango; in addition, the company launched a new brand Knewstar and expanded the Belgee lineup of Belarusian assembly. Chery brought the new-generation Tiggo 7 Pro Max and Tiggo 4 to Russia and opened pre-orders for the Tiggo 9. Dongfeng brought three crossovers under DFSK brand to Russia. Premium brand Tank presented a flagship model. Shangan updated the crossover CS75 Plus, GAC brought to Russia minivan M8 and crossover GS3. Omoda will deliver updated crossovers C5 to dealers at the end of November. BAIC, JAC, Jaecoo, Foton, Hongqi, Haima, Yecheed and others demonstrated their novelties during the year.
Knewstar, KGM and others
At the same time, the number of new brands turned out to be lower than last year. If in 2023 "Avtostat" counted 19 of them, in 2024 - only 13. Most of them are Chinese: Avatr, Oting, VGV, Knewstar, Soueast, M-Hero, MG, Wey, Seres Aito, Lynk & Co. But there are also Russian ones: Xcite, Solaris, Amberavto. Some brands, which voiced their plans, have not yet appeared on the market. These are BYD and Zeekr, as well as a new brand eπ ("Ipai") from the Chinese concern Dongfeng.
Exlantix may launch its cars on sale by the end of the year, Avtostat notes. However, the press service of the new premium brand stated that they will start sales in the first quarter of 2025. Representatives of the analytical agency believe that two non-Chinese brands will enter the Russian market by the end of the year: KGM (former SsangYong) from South Korea and Iranian IKCO (Iran Khodro). It is quite possible that these automakers will start selling in our country in 2025.
Leaders take everything
The number of brands on the Russian market has become excessive, and the leaders have already been identified. According to the results of 10 months of this year, more than half of the market is occupied by AvtoVAZ (27%) and the big Chinese "four" (Naval, Chery, Geely, Changan) - 40%. The share of the top 10 car brands popular in Russia, which in addition to Chinese brands include Russian Lada, Belarusian Belgee and Japanese Toyota, reached 78% of the market this year.
The top ten popular models took 47% of the market in the first ten months of this year.
Candidates for departure
The variety of models and brands in Russia will decrease, experts and market players are sure. Earlier, representatives of car dealerships and leasing companies interviewed by Rossiyskaya Gazeta named the brands that may leave the Russian market after the increase in the utilization fee. Among them are Livan, FAW, Haima, Oting and Venucia, Kaiyi, Forthing and Skywell. The latter is the most likely "candidate for departure", as it has frozen its activity in Russia and is still selling off cars manufactured in 2022-2023.
Sinomach, which owns the Oting brand, told Izvestia that it has no plans to leave the Russian market and promised several new products, including models based on Nissan Qashqai and Patrol, produced in China.
Spring will show
Reductions in the Russian market will begin in the spring of 2025, according to Igor Morzharetto, partner of Avtostat.
- By that time, the cars that were imported before the increase of utilization tax will run out, and it will be raised for the second time in January. Accordingly, a lot of models will leave those that are not produced in Russia. Those that can be sold in more than 10,000 copies will be produced. Now, as far as I know, the leading Chinese manufacturers are looking for partners in Russia for industrial assembly. I think that many models from the budget segment will leave. Only expensive cars can be imported to us at this level of duty," says the expert.
Most likely, next year car sales will go down, and the model lines of many manufacturers will be subjected to revision, said Maxim Kadakov, editor-in-chief of "Za Rulem". Among the reasons he names high prices and high key rate.
- Some dealers will be closed due to unprofitability, others will refuse to dealership of some brands. In fact, it will be difficult for many, including those in the top ten. They just have a margin of safety, some perspective, sales volume," Maxim Kadakov suggested.
Test of strength
Next year will be a test of strength, especially for those who are below the tenth place in the ranking in terms of sales volume, said "Izvestia" Deputy General Director for New Car Sales of Avilon AG.
- The premium segment will feel more confident. It will be more difficult for mass brands, where the dealer network is already experiencing serious competitive pressure due to oversaturation of the number of dealership centers, - said Renat Tyukteev.
Some of the brands currently represented on the Russian market will leave it, and some of them will come, believes Nikolay Ivanov, Director of New Car Department of Rolf Company.
- There will be such replacements, rotations. But the number of brands and the mass of models will remain at approximately the same level as now," he said.
According to Ivanov, there are certain niches that will not be affected by the "washing out" of foreign brands, such as commercial vehicles.
- This segment accounts for 11-12 thousand sales per year, and 90% of the market - UAZ, GAZ and Lada. Models of foreign brands - only 10%, it is a very small volume. The second falling out block is premium models. Yes, now there are some brands that call themselves so, but in fact they are not. We need to realize that there are no real premium brands that are officially supplied to Russia," Nikolay Ivanov believes.
No sharp fluctuations
There are no political prerequisites for this, Renat Tyukteev noted. According to him, next year the market will react more reservedly to any new brands - the consumer is becoming more cautious. Therefore, there will be no sharp fluctuations in the composition of new brands brought to the market, the main wave has passed over the past two years.
Renat Tyukteev believes that the number of models presented on the Russian market in 2025 will increase primarily due to the expansion of the lineup of already presented Chinese brands.
- The pace of launching new models will be similar to 2024 due to the fact that automakers from China update their model lines more often than European and Korean brands used to do," Tyukteev said.
Iranian factor
New brands are unlikely to have a major impact on the market, experts say.
- Our people are waiting for inexpensive Iranian cars to come. Everyone remembers Samand, which was unattractive but cost reasonable money. Now, if we're talking about a more or less decent Tara model, it's unlikely to cost less than 2 million. Of course, there will be some demand, but I don't think Iranian cars will seriously affect the market," Kadakov said.
