Give Jairou: Brazil faces growing risk of protests by Bolsonaro supporters
The risk of mass protests by the politician's followers is growing in the Latin American country amid the progress of proceedings against former Brazilian President Jair Bolsonaro. The former leader could face up to 28 years in prison for attempting a coup d'état after the 2022 elections, which were won by Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Bolsonaro has more of a suspect status at this stage, but if investigations continue, his trial could take place in 2025. At the same time, Russia, for which Brazil is an important partner in the Latin American region, is not interested in destabilization in the country. What Bolsonaro is accused of and what consequences the case against him may have - in the material of "Izvestia".
Bolsonaru is suspected of preparing a coup d'état
Up to 28 years in prison may face Jair Bolsonaro on charges presented to him by the Federal Police of Brazil on November 21. The 700-page document with the results of the investigation was sent to the Supreme Court of the Latin American state. From there, it will go to the Attorney General's Office, which in turn will decide whether the investigation will continue and then a trial will be announced. It, according to CNN Brasil's sources, could take place in March-April 2025.
The far-right and rather eccentric politician, who is often compared to Donald Trump and now Argentine leader Javier Milay, held the Brazilian presidency from January 1, 2019 until January 1, 2023, when he was succeeded by Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva.
Brazilian President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva
Bolsonaro is charged with three crimes: attempted coup d'état (4 to 12 years in prison), attempting to overturn the democratic rule of law (4 to 8 years) and organizing crimes (3 to 8 years).
All suspicions relate to the period after the presidential elections in 2022, in which Bolsonaro lost, but, according to the investigation, tried by all means to stay in power. In addition to the former President, charges are also brought against 36 accomplices who allegedly supported his plan.
Recall that in January 2023 supporters of Bolsonaro staged mass protests in Brasilia. The protesters tried to seize government buildings. During this period were preparing assassination attempts on Lula da Silva, Vice President Geraldo Alckmin and Minister of the Supreme Federal Court Alexander de Moraes. By the way, the latter is now taking an active part in the investigation of the case, which raises questions about the impartiality of the entire process.
The organizers of the crimes assumed that after the murder of Alckmin, Lula da Silva and de Moraes, an anti-crisis committee of military men loyal to Bolsonaro was to appear to further transfer power to him.
Bolsonaro supporters stage mass protests in Brasilia, Jan. 8, 2023
According to the prosecution, the ex-president's team operated under the leadership of the former president with different tasks: to spread false information, to incite the military, to look for legal tricks to bring Bolsonaro back to power, to realize plans for a coup d'état, and to conduct intelligence. In addition, after the election, the ex-president's team looked for ways to cancel the results of the vote.
It was previously believed that Bolsonaro was only the beneficiary of these attempts to prevent a change of power, moreover, during the active phase of the protests he himself was in Florida, where he left on December 30, 2022, in fact leaving his country in the last days of his term in the hands of his vice-president.
Jair Bolsonaro denies all the accusations. "Minister Alexandre de Moraes is doing all the investigations, correcting testimonies, arresting without charges, fishing out evidence and has a very creative team of consultants. He does everything the law doesn't tell him to do," the former president wrote on his social media accounts.
The 69-year-old Jair Bolsonaro is not taking the prospect of going to jail seriously either. According to Brazilian media sources, the ex-leader is fishing in the state of Alagoas these days together with the former Minister of Tourism Gilson Machado.
By the way, this is not the only reason to prosecute Bolsonaro. The ex-leader of Brazil is also accused of attempting to embezzle state property - we are talking about jewelry, which were presented to the country by the Saudi authorities (their value is estimated at $3.2 million).
In addition, Bolsonaro is accused of falsifying the certificate of vaccination against COVID-19 to travel to the U.S. during the pandemic. Overall, his management of the country at the time raises many questions. The former president actively denied the existence of the virus and failed to put in place the measures necessary to protect the population.
In Brazil, the risk of protests remains
Despite the controversial figure of Bolsonaro and the generally high approval rating of Lula da Silva(51% as of October 2), there are many supporters of the ex-president in Brazil who may be ready for rallies.
For example, in September, Jair Bolsonaro managed to mobilize several thousand people for protests in Sao Paulo against the blocking of social network X. And earlier in February this year, 185 thousand supporters of the former president took to the streets in the same city in support of amnesty for the participants of mass protests in 2023.
Potentially untie the hands of Bolsonaro and his followers can also come to power in the White House Donald Trump. The Republican has already invited the Brazilian politician to his inauguration next January. The one promised to come, nevertheless, this situation does not entirely depend on the decisions of Bolsonaro himself.
U.S. President-elect Donald Trump
The fact is that the Supreme Court had previously confiscated his passport. In March 2024, Jair Bolsonaro asked to return the document for a trip to Israel at the invitation of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. The court refused to make a concession.
Bolsonaro's potential arrest will help shape his image as a political martyr, make him a symbol of resistance to the right-wing forces, and even from prison he will be able to influence politics, said Ana Livia Esteves, a lecturer at the Faculty of World Economy and World Politics of the National Research University Higher School of Economics and a journalist at Sputnik. According to her, if Jair Bolsonaro fails to run in the next elections, his place can be successfully taken by the politician's son Eduardo.
- Bolsonaru's son is currently considered the most viable successor to his father's legacy. Eduardo Bolsonaro has strong ties to right-wing groups in the US. And Donald Trump's return to the White House could strengthen his ambition to lead Brazil's right-wing movement," says Ana Livia Esteves.
Eduardo Bolsonaro
Protests are possible if Jair Bolsonaro is arrested, believes Vinicius Rodrigues Vieira of the Institute of Advanced Studies at the University of São Paulo in Brazil. Until then, Bolsonaro will follow Donald Trump's strategy, portraying a political victim and insisting that the system is against him, the expert tells Izvestia.
The risks of mass protests in Brazil in case of escalation with Bolsonaro's case are extremely high, Egor Lidovskoy, director general of the Hugo Chavez Latin American Center, told Izvestia. Brazilian society has been one of the most polarized in the world in recent years, and right-wing forces are seeking revenge after losing the 2022 presidential election, he noted.
For Russia, the escalation of the situation in the Latin American state is not at all favorable, as well as, in general, the return of right-wing forces to power in the country. Brazil is a major economy in the region and an important partner for Russia, including within BRICS. By the way, next year the country will preside over this association.
Bilateral relations between Russia and Brazil have improved since Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, a representative of the left-wing forces, came to power. Dialogue is conducted, in fact, at all levels. Foreign Minister Mauro Vieira visited Russia several times in 2024, including at the BRICS summit in Kazan, where the president of the South American country was originally supposed to fly, but could not due to injury. Sergey Lavrov visited Brazil twice this year to participate in the G20 ministerial and presidential meetings.
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