Hodge's legacy: what will be the Middle East policy of Trump's second term
Amid reports about Israel's preparations for an operation in the West Bank, experts are speculating about what will change in the American strategy in the Middle East after Donald Trump returns to the White House. On the one hand, the appointments announced by the 47th President of the United States indicate the strengthening of pro-Israeli positions. On the other hand, several factors have emerged over the past four years that make it extremely difficult, if not impossible, to achieve the goals set by previous methods. "Izvestia has analyzed the reasons why the US will have to change its Middle East strategy.
Hawks, spies, crusaders
After the presentation of candidates for key positions in the Trump administration, the media started talking about the strengthening of the pro-Israeli bias in the US policy in the Middle East. Indeed, future Secretary of State Marco Rubio is known as a proponent of a foreign policy "through force" - and not just with regard to China or Venezuela. He has repeatedly spoken of the "total annihilation" of Hamas, and has even compared the actions of Israeli intelligence agencies during the current crisis to an operation to eliminate fugitive Nazi criminals. Rubio has also pushed for stronger sanctions on Iran to "weaken its terrorist networks" and prevent it from obtaining nuclear weapons.
Far more specific on the subject of the Middle East was Pete Hegseth, whom Trump would like to see as the new Secretary of Defense. Hegseth (like, by the way, House Speaker Mike Johnson) belongs to the Protestant Evangelical Church, which has extensive lobbying influence on the American domestic political process.
The thesis of Israel's exceptional role is enshrined in the eschatology (the doctrine of the last days of the world) of evangelicals. In 2018, Hegseth, then head of a veteran organization funded by the Koch brothers (a billionaire family, traditional funders of the Republican Party), said during a speech in Jerusalem that he saw no reason why the Third Temple should not be built on the Temple Mount in Jerusalem - the Dome of the Rock mosque now stands on the site. "...visiting Judea and Samaria (the biblical name for the area known as the West Bank of the Jordan River. - "Izvestia"), understanding that the sovereignty, the very sovereignty of the Israeli land, of the Israeli cities, of the settlements, is the crucial next step to showing the whole world that this is a land for Jews and the land of Israel. <...> Do what needs to be done here in Israel, because I truly believe that this is the moment when America has your back. You have Donald Trump in the White House. <...> You have true believers in Israel and America who will have your back," he said at the time.
Moreover, the strong ties between American evangelicals (who, according to various reports, make up between 24% and 37% of American believers) and Israel's current ruling right-wing Likud party are reliably known.
Another pro-Israel Trump creationist is Mike Huckabee. He is mentioned as the next ambassador to Israel. And against his background, even Hegseth does not look radical, says Sergei Mikhailov, a leading RISI expert.
- There are no differences at the level of rhetoric. We should not forget about the most important electoral pillar of the Republicans - evangelical Christians. Trump has extensive connections in pro-Israeli circles, including through members of his family. The proposal to appoint Mike Huckabee, who explicitly states that the term "West Bank" does not exist but "Judea and Samaria," as ambassador is also highly symptomatic. Importantly, for people like him, the difference between Islam and Islamism is not always concretely defined. How such a person will pursue politics can be predicted with certainty," concludes Izvestiya's interlocutor.
Another argument that has not lost its significance over the decades is the powerful pro-Israeli lobby, which has considerable influence not only in the US Congress and government, but also at the level of the mainstream media.
The anti-Iranian attitude of the future Trump administration also adds to the conviction in its pro-Israeli stance. In Tehran, nothing good is expected from the Republican's return to the White House. On the contrary, it is assumed that Trump will try to strengthen sanctions and will do everything possible to buy Iran's attempts to circumvent them (which he has not without success in recent years).
Of course, Jared Kushner, Trump's son-in-law and Middle East adviser in his first term in office, is inevitably included in the list of arguments for strengthening Israel's position. Even despite the president-elect's own pledge to no longer involve family members.
Things are changing
Meanwhile, experts agree that support for Benjamin Netanyahu's government over the next four years will not be on the same scale as before. There are several factors that make the current situation in the Middle East much more complex and force Washington to be more selective than before in its policy goals and objectives. Moreover, these changes have affected even relations within the president's family, points out Grigory Lukyanov, deputy dean of the Eastern Faculty of the State University of the Russian Federation.
- It is worth taking into account the changed arrangement within Trump's family. Now he has two sons-in-law, and the second one (Lebanese Arab-Christian billionaire Michael Boulos - Izvestia) professes views opposite to Kushner's beliefs. He managed not only to attract significant funds to Trump's campaign, but also significantly corrected his remarks. For example, Boulos convinced his father-in-law to apologize to Yemenis for earlier offensive remarks about them all being terrorists. And these kinds of changes respond to individual Arab states' efforts to correct American foreign policy. Their current goal is to create a regional balance instead of recklessly supporting Israel's voluntaristic policies," the expert says.
Kingdom
The second and almost the most important argument against the unconditional support of Israel by the United States is the position of Saudi Arabia, which has seriously changed over the past year and a half. The richest state in the region is increasingly irritated by Israeli military operations and the way the White House behaves.
Back in September 2023, Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman claimed that the two states - Saudi Arabia and West Jerusalem - were "getting closer every day" to concluding an agreement to normalize relations (the "Abraham Accord"). One of the terms of that agreement was to provide Riyadh with American military aid. Now the negotiations are frozen, and since February the condition for their restoration is the withdrawal of Israeli troops from the Gaza Strip and the recognition of an independent Palestinian state within the 1967 borders.
At the same time, the kingdom does not refuse to cooperate with the West on principle and avoids joining any blocs, which leaves Trump's team room for diplomatic maneuvering. But under changed conditions. And in addition to the above, they will include the disavowal of accusations against Riyadh for organizing the events of September 11, and revenge for attempts to place personal responsibility for the murder of Jamal Khashoggi on representatives of the royal family. In addition, Saudi Arabia is crucial to the realization of American interests also because it is a key element of the global logistics project proposed by the U.S. government in September 2023. It was supposed to be an alternative to China's "One Belt, One Road" initiative.
In addition, as Grigory Lukyanov notes, Saudi Arabia values the progress made in relations with Iran and will therefore try to influence it accordingly.
Consequently, in the context of changing global geopolitical priorities, the anti-Iranian component of Trump's foreign policy is not preordained and inevitable. According to the expert, Iran in the role of a common enemy was necessary to unite allies in the region. Foreign policy objectives may now be assessed differently.
- Even in his first term, Trump did not work exclusively to strengthen Israel. He tried to create conditions for the possibility of influencing Israeli policy in the region. For this purpose, it was supposed to create an economic alliance with the participation of Saudi Arabia, possibly Turkey and Egypt. Such an alliance would reduce the cost of maintaining American influence. In his second term, Trump has no reason to abandon this path, which means that there will be a carrot as well as a stick in relations with Israel.
And this is where the U.S.-Israel Comprehensive Security Support Treaty, which was concluded under Obama, comes in handy. This is an important tool that neither Trump had in his first term, nor the Biden administration, which plays the role of a wingman in relations with Netanyahu," the expert comments.
Under the agreement, $3.8 billion of the budget goes annually to military aid to Israel and more than $20 billion in additional aid was sent after October 7, 2023. For the Netanyahu government, this could be a significant argument in the face of the protracted military conflict it has initiated.
Not enough time for war
In late October, it was reported that Trump had given Netanyahu until January 20, 2025 (i.e., the date of the US presidential inauguration) to complete the military operation. In this regard, the statements of journalist Seymour Hersh, who wrote about the Israeli government's plans to invade and annex the West Bank in the next two weeks, make sense. However, as Orientalist Kirill Semenov emphasizes, such a development could lead to unpredictable consequences.
- Trump has given Netanyahu time to finish his military campaigns before the day of his inauguration, and he would very much not like to solve the issue of reconciliation on his own. If Israel starts an escalation in the West Bank, the situation could get out of control altogether, and here Trump could exert a tough influence on West Jerusalem," the interlocutor emphasized.
As the expert notes, the next administration will have an advantage over the previous one in terms of influencing the Israeli authorities.
- Biden was actually held hostage by Netanyahu and did what the Israeli government directed him to do. Trump has more leverage, including directly on Netanyahu's cabinet," Kirill Semyonov believes. - On the one hand, of course, he is a pro-Israeli politician, but on the other hand, he will act on the basis of American interests, despite all his sympathy. He will try to stop the allies in those situations when he deems it necessary.
Another important factor is the unexpected and consolidated support that Trump received from American Muslims during the election. As Imam Bilal al-Zuhri of Michigan stated in this regard, it was due to the Republican's promise to "put an end to war in the Middle East."
Thus, the Middle East policy of Donald Trump's second term, like much else, will be seriously different from his previous strategy under the influence of changed conditions.
