The holiday is coming to them: demand for shipping from the PRC jumped by a third
The demand for delivery from China in November jumped by 30% compared to the previous month alone, carriers and business representatives told Izvestia. Experts attribute such a rush to the desire of various companies to solve all logistical issues before the start of the Chinese New Year celebrations in China. Because of the long weekend, cargoes can hang there for about a month. And this year Russian business began to prepare for the Chinese long weekend earlier than usual.
How many days it takes to ship from China
By mid-autumn 2024, the demand for various types of delivery from China to Russia, including air, rail, road and sea, has grown to 30%. This was reported to Izvestia by several logistics companies. The terms have also increased, now they are up to 55-60 days, while in August they were about 40 days.
In the association of entrepreneurs "White Business" explained the situation by the increase in the volume of orders from China, where only in November there were several major sales - in particular, the World Shopping Day and "Black Friday".
- This year the rush started early, growing by 20-30% according to the last three months. This growth is due to increased trade and demand for certain goods, such as electronics and gifts," the association said.
But carriers cite another reason for the increased demand for delivery - the reluctance of businesses to have their shipments "hang up" due to China's large-scale New Year celebration, which is accompanied by a long weekend. In 2025, the celebration starts on January 29 and will last until mid-February. Therefore, now they want to complete the deliveries before the end of the calendar year.
Many Chinese plants and factories close one or two weeks before the official holidays, and after the holiday not all manufacturers return to work immediately, recalled in the transportation company "Logistic Systems". As a result, for about a month delivery in China will work in a limited mode.
- Before the holidays in the peak season air transportation prices traditionally rise, especially in the period between the Russian and Chinese New Year, - said the company's expert Marina Bogatyreva.
On the eve of the Chinese New Year, the demand for air cargo transportation traditionally increases, confirmed Dmitry Khrushchalev, Deputy General Director for Development of Delovye Liniya Group of Companies.
- Now the number of orders is rapidly increasing, their number for air delivery has grown by 15% relative to the average values of the third quarter of this year, - he said.
New Year holidays in Russia and China are traditionally accompanied by an increase in demand for cargo transportation, which is associated with the growth of trade and increased consumption of goods, agrees the president of the association "White Business" Anna Fomicheva.
- The situation with demand for air transportation will also develop more actively due to the increase in import and export shipments, as well as the need for timely delivery of goods in the run-up to the holidays. Air cargo transportation is expected to be loaded, especially during the peak dates of late November and early December," she said.
The Air Cargo Terminal, which handles cargo traffic at Sheremetyevo Airport, expects January to traditionally be a bit of a lull after an active fall and December.
- In the first half of the month Russia goes on New Year vacations, and then China will pick up the baton," states Elena Ermakova, Deputy General Director for Commercial Operations at Moscow Cargo. - Officially, the New Year holidays in 2025 will start there on January 28 and will last until February 3, in fact, many companies will go on vacation as early as January 20.
Increased demand in the air cargo industry used to occur in September-December with a peak in November, experts explain. Since 2023, a noticeable increase in demand starts as early as July, and this year, according to the results of the third quarter, the volume of imports from China, processed by the terminal, increased almost one and a half times compared to last year.
What types of shipments have seen an increase in demand
The route from China has been overheated since early November, experts say. As the New Year holidays approach, the terms of air delivery will increase based on the volume of cargo in the warehouses of the lines.
- Now the increase in volumes is also observed, and booking of delivery is possible from seven to ten days before departure, - said the director of the direction of international air transportation of GC "ETE" Alexander Lymarev. - By December, imports from China to Russia may increase by another 30-40%.
In the high season, which in logistics lasts from October to December, the volume of imports from China to Russia grows, followed by increased congestion in the direction, said the logistics company PEC.
- Lack of infrastructure and transportation capacity has led to the fact that in the ports of the Far East companies are waiting at least 25 days for processing and rearrangement of containers from sea to rail transport, - said the director of the European-Asian direction of "PEC: GLOBAL" Gennady Chichin.
Logisticians note that the terms of direct railroad delivery also continue to grow. The volume of imports from China significantly exceeds export figures, and the Chinese side faces a shortage of containers and railroad platforms and has to wait for their arrival from Russia.
The capacities of road border crossings are also overloaded. Business faces the longest congestion when shipping from China via Kazakhstan.
- Since the installation of new software at customs checkpoints between Kazakhstan and China, there have been serious disruptions at border crossings," said Gennady Chichin. - Carriers have been idling at border crossings in this direction for more than seven days.
To solve problems with logistics, companies have to plan their deliveries in advance to minimize the risks of delays, said the logistics company Skif-Cargo. They make earlier orders and optimize logistics routes. They have to consider alternative routes and delivery methods, such as using rail or road transportation for domestic shipments, until the air frenzy subsides, the company said.
