Moscow hopes that Western countries will carefully study the updated Russian nuclear doctrine approved by President Vladimir Putin on 19 November. Experts note that the text of the document was written taking into account the realities of the conflict in Ukraine and new threats posed to Russia by the Western weapons transferred to Kiev. Thus, apparently, Ukraine has received a green light from Washington to use US long-range ATACMS missiles for strikes against Russia. Six missiles of this type have already been intercepted over the Bryansk region on the night of November 19. Konstantin Kosachev, deputy speaker of the Council of the Russian Federation, told Izvestia that Ukraine will escalate to the last, trying not just to maintain, but to maximize the degree of tension. On the obsession of the current Kiev authorities with the continuation of the conflict and the details of the new doctrine - in the material of "Izvestia".
Russia's new nuclear doctrine
By decree of November 19, Vladimir Putin approved an updated version of the Fundamentals of State Policy of the Russian Federation in the field of nuclear deterrence. The document was published a day after, according to several Western media reports, Washington, Paris and London gave Kiev permission to strike deep into Russia with long-range missiles. Although French, British, and U.S. officials initially denied this information, on the night of November 19, Russian air defense systems intercepted six U.S. ATACMS operational-tactical missiles that the AFU was attempting to use to strike a facility in the Bryansk region.
Russian President Vladimir Putin
According to the Russian Defense Ministry, S-400 SAMs and Pantsir SAMs shot down five missiles and damaged one. Its fragments fell on the technical territory of a military facility in the Bryansk region, which caused a fire, which was promptly extinguished. But there were no casualties or damage, the ministry said.
The updated text of the nuclear doctrine takes into account exactly the realities of today, Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said. "It should become the object of very deep analysis both in our country and, probably, abroad," the Kremlin spokesman stressed. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov also expressed hope at the G20 summit that the West would scrutinize Russia's new nuclear doctrine. In his opinion, the ATACMS strikes on the Bryansk region are a signal that the US wants to escalate the conflict. Without the involvement of their military, such strikes would have been impossible, the minister emphasized.
Indeed, the document contains a number of important points that directly refer to the events taking place in Ukraine and their geopolitical context. The section "General Provisions" has not undergone any changes. As before, it emphasizes that the Russian Federation "considers nuclear weapons as a means of deterrence, the use of which is an extreme and compulsory measure". At the same time, Russia is making "all necessary efforts to reduce the nuclear threat.
S-400 SAM
At the same time, significant clarifications have been made in the section "The Essence of Nuclear Deterrence". Thus, it is exercised not only against states and military coalitions (blocs, alliances) that regard Russia as a potential adversary, but also against countries that provide territory, air or sea space and resources under their control for the preparation and implementation of aggression against Russia.
Obviously, the change in wording is related to the situation around Ukraine, to which Western allies have supplied not only long-range ATACMS, Storm Shadow, and SCALP missiles, but also aircraft that could potentially carry such weapons for subsequent launching on Russian territory. In light of the new nuclear doctrine, it becomes essentially irrelevant whether Kiev, for example, allows the Netherlands to use their F-16s outside of Ukraine or not. Following the logic of the document, the presence of such aircraft in Ukrainian skies already poses a threat to Russia. The same applies to the situation in which the conflict will be frozen at some point and the active phase of hostilities will cease. If Storm Shadow, SCALP or ATACMS are on the territory of a neighboring country, this also poses threats to the Russian Federation, which are mentioned in the updated doctrine.
Strikes with long-range missiles against the Russian Federation
Outgoing European Union European diplomacy chief Josep Borrell said U.S. missile strikes deep inside Russia do not increase the risk of using nuclear weapons. "I don't see a link between President Biden's decision and the risk of nuclear war," he said. According to him, "this is not the first time that a decision has been made to authorize the use of weapons to strike Russian territory."
EU High Representative for Foreign Affairs and Security Policy Josep Borrell
"The US sees no need to adjust its nuclear posture or doctrine in response," the Bloomberg publication claimed, citing an unnamed National Security Council official. However, the current authorities in Ukraine will escalate to the last, trying not just to maintain, but also to maximize the degree of tension, Konstantin Kosachev, vice-speaker of the Federation Council, told Izvestia.
- Peace is neither beneficial nor necessary for Ukraine. It can come only on the terms that have actually developed on the ground and include Russia's position. In any case, the actions of the Ukrainian side are absolutely predictable, but also absolutely ineffective, while the response of the Russian side will always be, on the one hand, predictable, but also absolutely effective," he added.
The Ukrainians can achieve escalation primarily by strikes with long-range Western-made missiles. On November 19, at a meeting of EU foreign ministers in Brussels, Josep Borrel said that some EU countries, as well as the United States, had authorized this. U.S. Assistant Secretary of State Brian Nichols later confirmed in an interview with the Brazilian publication O Globo that Washington had allowed the AFU to attack targets in Russia with Western missiles.
ATACMS
Be that as it may, the new nuclear doctrine explicitly states that aggression against Russia by any other non-nuclear state with the participation or support of a nuclear state is considered their joint attack. As military expert Viktor Litovkin noted in a conversation with Izvestia, the clarifications made to the doctrine are Russia's clear response to the West's authorization to use long-range missiles to attack our territory.
- Ukraine's use of American long-range missiles against us is a threat to our country, and now the United States is behind it. Therefore, we are now within our rights to use nuclear weapons against them and Ukraine. Note that the decree is published days after it was reported that Biden authorized the use of ATACMS on Russian territory. Putin warned the West back in September, but time passed and everyone supposedly forgot about it, so with the decree we reminded them of it," he said.
It should be noted that ATACMS missiles have already been used on our territory - in attacks on Crimea, on our ship repair and construction plants, the expert recalled.
- There is nothing new here. Now there is psychological pressure. The USA allowed Ukraine to use their missiles against Russia a long time ago, back when they supplied them to Kiev," Viktor Litovkin emphasized.
In April this year, The New York Times quoted representatives of the US military as saying that the Pentagon had actually approved the use of long-range ATACMS missiles by Ukraine to attack facilities in Crimea. On the night of April 29-30, the AFU attacked the peninsula with American operational-tactical missiles, said Vladimir Konstantinov, head of the Crimean parliament. "The Kiev regime has finally degenerated to the state of a terrorist gang. The attack on peaceful Crimea is a manifestation of the most barbaric forms of terrorism. They do what they can and consider necessary: they hit with missiles wherever they want, without looking back at anything," he commented on the situation.
In addition, during the attack of the AFU on Sevastopol with the same missiles on June 23, four people were killed - two adults and two children, said Governor Mikhail Razvozhayev. He added that 151 people sought medical help. Of these, 82 were hospitalized - 55 adults and 27 children.
At the time, the Russian Defense Ministry said that Washington was responsible for the deliberate strike on civilians in Sevastopol, as it was American specialists who input all the flight assignments into the ATACMS missiles that were used during the attack.
According to military expert Dmitriy Kornev, the United States now has at least 2,000 missiles at its disposal. ATACMS missiles.
- This number includes both old modifications of the 90s, less accurate and with a range of 165 kilometers, which are about 1,000. But there are missiles of more modern modifications. The most modern model is from 2017, it is still produced by the States, so the number of these missiles is difficult to estimate, but there are at least 500 pieces. This is data from open sources for 2022," he noted. - Most likely, the US will supply Ukraine with about 10% of the missiles they have, i.e. 200-250 ATACMS. And this is taking into account the fact that America has already supplied them in some quantities to our enemy. If they decide to start supplying missiles of old modification of the 90s to the AFU instead of utilization, then we will be talking about a thousand of such missiles. Proper utilization costs money, and this way it will cost the U.S. nothing.
On April 24, the NYT newspaper reported that Washington had secretly transferred more than 100 ATACMS extended-range missiles to Kiev. However, the factor of the change of power in the United States should be taken into account here. In January, Donald Trump will be inaugurated, who has repeatedly spoken of his intention to end the conflict. That is, the new supplies, if we believe the plans of the president-elect, will not have much to do.
When the Russian Federation can use nuclear weapons
It is noteworthy that Russia's new doctrine expands the list of military dangers that could turn into military threats to the country and for the neutralization of which nuclear deterrence is carried out. They now include the expansion of coalitions that bring their military infrastructure closer to Russia's borders. This point is a direct reference to Ukraine's attempts to join NATO, as well as to the gradual eastward expansion of the Alliance's borders. We shall remind you that at the summit in July, the bloc said that Ukraine was on an irreversible path towards full Euro-Atlantic integration, including NATO membership.
Such dangers include the actions of a potential enemy to isolate part of the Russian Federation's territory, as well as activities aimed at hitting environmentally dangerous facilities that could lead to man-made, environmental or social disasters. Numerous attempts by the AFU to attack the Zaporozhye and Kursk nuclear power plants undoubtedly fall under such a definition.
If we talk about the conditions of Russia's transition to the use of nuclear weapons, then, as before, we are talking about a response to the use of nuclear and (or) other weapons of mass destruction against it and its allies, as well as a response to aggression using conventional weapons that pose a critical threat to the "sovereignty and territorial integrity" of Russia and Belarus. The previous version referred to "a threat to the existence of the state itself."
According to military expert Vladislav Shurygin, Russia was forced to change this wording by the situation in Kursk Region.
- When NATO does not participate, but at the same time pumps and provides the AFU with equipment, weapons, satellites, intelligence, and information resources," he said. - Therefore, the doctrine was certainly adjusted under the influence of recent events. Earlier we separated in our doctrine the countries that have nuclear weapons and those that do not. And we even made unilateral commitments not to use nuclear weapons against countries that do not have them. But then we considered that only the NATO bloc could participate in a war against us. And now it is participating in hostilities, but it is a proxy war: NATO is being fought by the Armed Forces of Ukraine, which do not have nuclear weapons. This means that everything ties together.
As for the mentioning of Belarus in this paragraph, the expert notes that the threat to it is obvious. "There are constantly hostile actions against it - Ukrainian drones were repeatedly shot down, DRGs came in. And only the fear of getting a second front stops Ukraine," he concluded.
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