Steady trend: ruble payments for Russian imports and exports have reached a peak
The share of ruble payments for Russian imports and exports reached record highs as of September 2024. Meanwhile, the volume of settlements in the currencies of unfriendly countries decreased to minimum values. This situation indicates the success of the trend towards dedollarization, experts believe. The transition to settlements in national currencies reduces the dependence on the dollar in international trade. "Izvestia" found out how it was possible to achieve such results.
Demand for the ruble
The share of payments in Russian rubles when paying for imports into the Russian Federation and rendering services reached a new maximum, amounting to 48.5%. Such an indicator was recorded in September 2024. This is reported in the preliminary data on the currency structure of foreign trade settlements of the Central Bank of the Russian Federation. The previous maximum was recorded in July of the same year.
Ruble settlements with African countries were record high (72.1%). Settlements in rubles with Asian partners also reached a new maximum (45.2%).
Meanwhile, the share of payments in currencies of unfriendly countries in settlements for imported goods and services decreased over the same period to a new minimum of 18.4%. The previous one was also recorded in July and amounted to 20.7%.
The share of toxic currencies in payment for imported goods in settlements with European countries has also decreased. It fell to 37.1%. For comparison: in August of this year it amounted to 49%.
This result was achieved due to the increase in the share of ruble payments (58.1%). Settlements in other currencies in this case amounted to 4.8%.
In total, the share of payments for imports in currencies of other countries reached 33%.
Strengthening positions
The share of payments in rubles for Russian exports in September increased to 42.8%. However, the proceeds of Russian exporters in unfriendly currencies also increased, amounting to 18.3%. At the same time, the percentage of receipts in the currencies of friendly states decreased to 38.9%.
The share of payments for Russian exports made by US partners almost doubled to 42.3%. Unfriendly currencies, in turn, accounted for 54.9% of the volume.
Buyers from Asian countries also increased the share of payments in rubles. It grew up to 39.3%. At the same time, the number of export payments in friendly currencies decreased to 45.1%.
In turn, the share of ruble payments for Russian supplies to European countries decreased to 61.7%. On the other hand, in September, payments in unfriendly currencies were made more frequently than before (32.2%).
Based on the results of changes in the structure and volumes of foreign trade payments, the balance of settlements in rubles in dollar equivalent grew in September to $8.8bn. In payments in other currencies - to $5.4bn. The balance of settlements in toxic currencies also increased, it rose to $1.5bn.
Izvestia editorial staff sent an inquiry to the Bank of Russia. At the time of publication, no reply had been received.
Reasons for success
The increase in the share of Russia's foreign trade payments in the national currency to a record 48.5% in September of this year was caused by several factors, believes Nikolay Vavilov, a specialist in the strategic research department of TR Company.
The first of them is the peculiarities of accounting, according to which the algorithm of foreign trade operations of Russian companies is increasingly beginning to resemble barter.
- Export companies reflect transactions in accounting documents as cash transactions, but they do not conduct bank transactions themselves, leaving a significant part of the currency abroad with subsequent financing of imports," the expert explains.
According to him, the second important factor is the flexibility of the banking infrastructure. At the moment, systemically important credit organizations of Russia offer exporters more and more favorable conditions both for servicing and lending in Russian rubles.
In general, the record volume of the ruble share in import payments was achieved due to the past restructuring of the Russian economy, the creation of new ties and the emergence of new trading partners, says Ruslan Pichugin, an independent private equity expert.
In addition, the share of payments in Russian rubles when paying for imports is increased by the pressure of secondary sanctions, adds Lubarto Sartoyo, president of the alliance of business structures and entrepreneurs of Southeast Asia B2BASEAN.
Also the growth of ruble settlements in foreign trade became possible due to the government policy to promote the ruble as the main currency and the conclusion of the necessary bilateral agreements on the transition to settlements in national currencies, says financial advisor Anna Vedeneeva.
Important partners
At the moment, the Russian Federation pays in domestic currency with the countries of Europe, Asia, the Caribbean and Oceania, refers to the data of the Central Bank Nikolai Vavilov.
- Despite the expectations of the West, the Russian economy continues to find ways out and rebuild. And in this process , many friendly countries in Africa, Latin America and, of course, Asia are not against the transition to trade in national currencies. This is the main reason why the share of payments in Russian rubles is increasing," Lubarto Sartoyo is convinced.
Anna Vedeneeva notes that the most active partners in ruble settlements are countries with which Russia has strong trade relations. In particular, these are China, Turkey and India.
Russia is no less active in ruble payments with Azerbaijan, Belarus, Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan, Ruslan Pichugin adds to the list.
- Foreign trade participants use intermediary companies to make transfers from neighboring countries, with which trade is traditionally conducted in rubles. In the settlement schemes used, payment for goods from Asian countries goes to third countries and is exchanged for Chinese or other currencies there," the expert explains.
The end of hegemony
The process of transition to settlements in national currencies in foreign economic activity is called dedollarization, reminds Nikolay Vavilov. By 2030 Russia intends to completely abandon the US dollar in payments.
- At the moment, in addition to the Chinese yuan, Russia also settles payments with friendly countries and EAEU partners via the Arab dirham, Indian rupee and the currencies of CIS countries (Kazakh tenge, Azerbaijani manat, Tajik somoni, Kyrgyz som, Armenian dram and Uzbek sum)," the Izvestia interlocutor says.
Settlements in some of these currencies contain risks associated with non-free conversion, Vavilov admits. However, the practice and increasing frequency of national currencies use show that the US dollar is experiencing more and more negative consequences due to the use of the national currency by the American ruling circles as a weapon to subdue recalcitrant countries, the expert emphasizes.
The increase in the share of payments in rubles for imports from the point of view of dedollarization means, firstly, an increase in the stability of the country's trade balance, Ruslan Pichugin points out. And, secondly, it reduces the risk of ruble devaluation.
A steady trend towards dedollarization is forming in the world, which will gain momentum in the future, admits Lubarto Sartoyo. In this regard, the share of settlements in rubles will continue to grow.
The speed of such changes, according to the expert, is due to the risk of secondary sanctions, as well as changes in financial logistics and trade structure.
- Euro and dollar have become currencies less attractive for Russian business and investors. The complication of financial settlements due to sanctions determines the process of dedollarization. And more and more countries are opposing the dominance of the US dollar in the world economy," says the Izvestia interlocutor.
The rejection of the dollar is the only salvation from dependence on American corporations, warns Yury Lyandau, Doctor of Economics, professor at the Plekhanov Russian Economic University. The dollar must stop being the world's reserve currency, he is convinced.
- If the world does not achieve this, the Federal Reserve System (FRS) will continue to print dollars, parasitizing the whole world. In this case, the U.S. government debt will grow, which the U.S. does not seem to plan to repay," the expert believes.
A single currency of BRICS could become a real effective driver of rejection of the dollar, does not exclude Lyandau.
- If we manage to launch it within a year, it will be a serious blow to the U.S. Federal Reserve System," the economist predicts.
However, Russia will not be able to completely move away from settlements in the currency of unfriendly countries in the near future. Some imports will have to be backed by toxic currency, and there is no getting away from it, Sartoyo admits.
Nevertheless, reaching the new maximum share of ruble payments indicates progress in the de-dollarization strategy, Anna Vedeneeva is convinced.
- Although 48.5% does not yet mean complete independence from the dollar, it is a significant step in this direction. Changes in the currency structure of settlements emphasize Russia's efforts to strengthen its economic sovereignty and adapt to complex geopolitical conditions, which may create a basis for a more stable and protected economic system," summarizes the Izvestia interlocutor.
