It's going to go according to plan: Israel and Lebanon set to make a truce
The Lebanese authorities have approved the plan for the settlement of relations with Israel, which was proposed by the administration of U.S. President Joseph Biden. On November 19, Amos Hochstein, deputy assistant to the U.S. leader, flew to the country. The purpose of the visit is to discuss the possibility of a ceasefire and a peace deal. However, the end of the conflict is expected on terms favorable to Israel. Details - in the material "Izvestia".
Peace settlement plan
Beirut and the Lebanese Shiite group "Hezbollah" approved the American plan for a peace agreement with Israel, making "some positive comments on the content." This was announced by Ali Hassan Khalil, assistant speaker of the Lebanese parliament.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati
According to him, Beirut sent its written response to American Ambassador to Lebanon Lisa Johnson on November 18. The politician emphasized that everything now depends on Tel Aviv, noting that the efforts that have been made this time for a ceasefire between the sides have been the most serious of all.
Lebanese Prime Minister Najib Mikati must now discuss this plan for a ceasefire agreement with U.S. Special Envoy Amos Hochshein, who flew to the country on November 19. In particular, the issue may be those aspects of the peace plan "that may contradict the Lebanese constitution." However, it is not yet reported what this means specifically.
The draft agreement consists of 13 points and implies withdrawal of Hezbollah Shiite movement formations from the border with Israel and sending regular army soldiers there. They will be assisted by the UN Interim Force in Lebanon (UNIFIL). In addition, it is planned to form a monitoring commission to control the current situation.
Al Arabiya TV channel emphasized that Hezbollah has not yet reached a clear agreement with the official Lebanese authorities on this deal, but the movement's representatives are still ready to join the agreement.
Last week, the U.S. Embassy in Lebanon handed over a plan of arrangements to the speaker of the country's parliament, Nibih Berri. The politician acts as one of the mediators between Beirut and Hezbollah.
A serious obstacle
Certain passages of the future document have been leaked to the media, which in particular resemble the broad implementation of UN Security Council Resolution 1701. In 2006, under these agreements, Israel and Hezbollah were able to halt hostilities.
There is one demand of Tel Aviv in the document with which the Lebanese authorities do not agree. It concerns granting Israel the right to unilaterally resume hostilities if Hezbollah violates the agreements and does not withdraw its formations from the Lebanese-Israeli border.
Lebanon seriously fears that this could give the Israeli authorities the right to an indefinite military operation.
While the details of the peace settlement are being agreed upon, Tel Aviv has not stopped launching pinpoint strikes deep into Lebanon and bombing the south of the country. On Sunday, November 17, the head of Hezbollah's information service Mohammed Afif was killed in Israeli attacks.
In addition, for the first time since the start of the operation in southern Lebanon, the IDF deployed heavy artillery there a few days ago. Hezbollah has no choice but to make a peace deal.
The New York Times reports, citing sources in Iran, that the country's supreme leader, Ali Khamenei, has urged the Shiite movement, which is under pressure from Tehran, to conclude a cease-fire agreement with Israel. At the same time, Iranian authorities assured the movement that Tehran's full support for the group would continue, and also expressed a desire to help restore its military capabilities at the end of the conflict.
What experts think
Andrei Ontikov, an orientalist, publicist and author of the Telegram channel "Eastern Gate", noted in a conversation with Izvestia that if the Israeli leadership headed by Benjamin Netanyahu really wants to return the residents of Israel to their homes, then, in principle, the American plan may be quite viable.
- By and large, the violence in southern Lebanon could be stopped, especially since the Israelis themselves envisioned the operation as a short-term one. They said it would last days, not months. And it has been going on for much longer. If we talk about the basic attitudes, it might have made sense for the Israelis to complete everything, to secure their northern front and further deal with the Gaza Strip," the expert said.
According to the political scientist, the situation is complicated by the fact that Benjamin Netanyahu may have another temptation.
- The outgoing administration of US President Joseph Biden is now a lame duck, and Donald Trump's administration is coming instead, and his attitude toward Israel and Netanyahu is known. It is more than warm," the specialist explained.
The Orientalist added that in such a situation, the question arises whether Netanyahu will once again have a desire to slow down the operation just to wait until Trump comes to power and see what he will do. And Trump will take a blatantly pro-Israel and anti-Iran stance, the analyst summarized.
Vasily Ostanin-Golovnya, a researcher at the Middle and Post-Soviet East Department of the Russian Academy of Sciences, noted in a conversation with Izvestia that Lebanon is a kind of miniature of the Middle East, where one can observe the deepening of fault lines between the latest Sunni and Shiite blocs.
- In particular, between Saudi Arabia and Iran. In the 2000s, Hezbollah began to gain strength through assistance from Tehran, which actively supports Shiite parties and movements in Lebanon, and this does not please Riyadh," the political analyst explained.
He added that the main idea behind UN Security Council Resolution 1701 was to demand that both sides of the conflict withdraw their forces.
- This concerned both Israel and Hezbollah. The resolution may be adopted, but will it be implemented in the same way as in 2006? - asks the expert.
