The analyst predicted ranges for precious metals for the week
For the week of October 19-23, the base scenario for precious metals looks like this: gold — $4.05–4.3 thousand per troy ounce, silver — $54-61, platinum — $1.55–1.75 thousand, palladium — $1.05–1.2 thousand. At the same time, the market is waiting for high volatility, rather than simultaneous growth of the entire group. Igor Rastorguev, a leading analyst at AMarkets, told Izvestia about this.
Why is the market waiting for volatility rather than growth?
On the morning of October 19, gold was trading at about $4.18 thousand per troy ounce, silver — about $57-58, platinum — about $1.65 thousand, palladium — about $1.13 thousand.
According to Rastorguev, these levels reflect the situation on the morning of October 19, but do not give grounds to talk about the beginning of a sustainable recovery. The market will move in different directions: some metals may rise, while others may be under pressure.
"The main scenario for precious metals now is high volatility, rather than the simultaneous growth of the entire market," he said.
How the Fed and the dollar affect metals
Last week, first of all, expectations regarding the Fed's policy changed: there was no new decision on the rate, and the next meeting will be held on October 27-28. A weaker dollar and lower bond yields helped gold recover, while concerns about inflation limited growth.
"In the short-term forecast, I would primarily keep an eye on this bundle. Geopolitics remains a factor of sudden movements," Rastorguev said.
According to him, geopolitics remains a factor of sudden movements that are difficult to predict in advance. It is the combination of Fed policy, dollar dynamics and geopolitical events that will determine how stable the movement of metals will be.
What are the risks and benchmarks for the week and until the end of the year
A Russian investor needs to take into account the exchange rate: the strengthening of the ruble can partially or completely absorb the growth of the metal in dollars. Purchases of foreign currency under the budget rule affect the currency balance, but do not guarantee the weakening of the ruble and the profitability of investments in metals.
"In the week of October 19-23, American statistics on the housing market, applications for unemployment benefits and preliminary PMIs are important," he said.
The main risks are a reassessment of the Fed's rate prospects, a sharp dollar movement, and geopolitical events. Before new signals appear, it is more reasonable to expect fluctuations and different dynamics of metals than a steady growth of the entire group.
By the end of 2026, in the baseline scenario, Rastorguev is focusing on the ranges of $4-4.6 thousand per troy ounce for gold, $50-65 for silver, $1.45–1.8 thousand for platinum and $1-1.25 thousand for palladium.
The price of gold futures dropped below $4,250 per troy ounce on September 28 — such levels have not been recorded since August 5. By 08:35 Moscow time, quotes had dropped to about $4217, a drop of 2.42% compared to the previous close, and at the moment the price reached $4215.8. Later, the contract was adjusted to $4,197.3, which is 2.87% lower than the close of the previous session. Gold has fallen by more than 20% since its January peak of $5,318 per ounce.
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