Stay on the line: what will the restriction of access to Starlink for the Ukrainian Armed Forces lead to?

The crisis in relations between the United States and Ukraine continues to worsen. On October 14, it became known that the American corporation SpaceX, Elon Musk, restricted access to the Starlink satellite communications for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which the Ukrainian army uses to control drones. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.

What happened

On October 14, Elon Musk's American SpaceX corporation restricted access to the Starlink satellite communications for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, which the Ukrainian army uses to coordinate units on the front line and control drones.

Sergei Sternenko, a former adviser to the country's defense minister, was the first to announce this. At first, he said that the signal disappears when drones move at speeds of more than 160 km/ h, and later stated problems already at speeds of 60-70 km/ h. "SpaceX probably resorted to such measures at the request of the Trump administration," Sternenko suggested.

Next, Vladimir Zelensky's adviser on defense technologies, Sergei Beskrestnov, spoke about the difficulties. He noted that the restrictions affected the Starshield system, a more secure version of Starlink, and stressed that the Ukrainian side had not received any warnings, so SpaceX's actions led to the disruption of a number of missions.

The Ukrainian military also complained about the difficulties. One of the units of the Armed Forces of Ukraine operating in the Gulyai—Pole region said that communication with drones disappears at speeds of 110-120 km / h. "The devices continue to move, but interruptions make it difficult to control them," the authors of the message said.

Reducing the flight speed of UAVs makes them more vulnerable to Russian weapons. Additional problems arise with the launch of long-range vehicles, which must accelerate to the maximum at the start, which has now become impossible. "The effects of the restrictions are already being felt in practice," the military acknowledged.

What is important to know

Relations between the United States and Ukraine sharply deteriorated in early October, after the presidents of the United States and Russia, Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin, held telephone talks during which they agreed on a diesel deal. They agreed that the Russian Federation would send large volumes of fuel to the United States and the world market, which would reduce its prices.

Washington then lifted sanctions on Russian fuel. Trump explained that this step would help American farmers. At the same time, the parties agreed on the deal without the participation of Ukraine and the European Union, which caused extreme indignation in Kiev and European capitals. Zelensky called the agreement a weak decision by the Trump team.

The American leader responded by saying that the head of the Kiev regime had become a source of problems for the whole world. "We told him: you can launch any attacks on Russia, but do not touch the refinery. We asked him not to hit the diesel fuel, there were no other restrictions. And what did he do? He started hitting diesel fuel specifically," the head of the White House was indignant.

He also demanded that Zelensky resign and new elections be held in Ukraine. "I suggest they find a new leader who knows how to make deals, because he could make a lot of deals, but for some reason he never does," the US president explained.

Next, Trump announced an energy truce, which both Moscow and Kiev allegedly agreed to. And later, in response to questions from journalists, he said that both sides were violating this agreement.

In addition, Trump said that Putin really wants to "make a deal." "We need to get Zelensky to want this too. He should focus on this issue, not on talking," the American leader stressed. It is noteworthy that the head of SpaceX, Elon Musk, commenting on these statements, said that Zelensky "went too far."

On October 13, it became known that the Americans had moved from rhetorical escalation to real measures of influence. According to reports from the Ukrainian side, Washington has stopped transmitting intelligence to Kiev, which is why the Ukrainian Armed Forces have lost the ability to respond promptly to attacks by Russian ballistic missiles.

On October 14, the Russian Ministry of Defense reported on a large-scale series of strikes on energy facilities in Kiev, Kiev and Kharkiv regions. At the same time, the Ukrainian leadership stated that there was no intelligence from the United States about this attack again, therefore, the air alert was not announced in advance.

What the experts say

Disabling Starlink affects the combat capability of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, military expert Vasily Dandykin notes. Without satellite communications, he said, command and control of troops would be disrupted, which would make it more difficult for the Ukrainian military to carry out combat missions both in defense and in counterattacks.

— In this scenario, the Russian army will be able to advance at a faster pace. In the current situation, a long—known truth has become obvious again: Ukraine has nothing of its own in military terms, except for people, the country is completely dependent on Western partners," he emphasizes.

At the same time, Denis Fedutinov, an expert in the field of UAVs, editor-in-chief of the Unmanned Aviation magazine, draws attention to the fact that the restrictions affected only a small part of drones.

— So far, we are talking about a cutoff speed of 160 km/h, which affects a small part of the devices. We'll see what happens next. If SpaceX expands the restrictions, this may well have a significant impact on the coordination of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, up to the collapse of defenses in certain sections of the line of contact. However, most likely these are just political games aimed at promoting certain contractual positions, as has happened before," the source believes.

At the same time, former Verkhovna Rada deputy Spiridon Kilinkarov believes that relations between Ukraine and the United States are unlikely to improve in the near future.

— Zelensky is betting on the victory of the Democrats in the midterm elections to the American Congress, which will be held in early November. But even if that happens, I don't think Kiev's situation will improve. If the Republicans give in, the American internal political struggle will escalate, Ukraine will again become a factor in this struggle, and Trump's confrontation with Zelensky will only intensify, the ex—parliamentarian expects.