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- Barrel operation: diesel from Russia may arrive in the USA in late October — November
Barrel operation: diesel from Russia may arrive in the USA in late October — November
Deliveries of Russian diesel to the United States may take from a couple of weeks to a month and will not affect the supply of the Russian domestic market, experts interviewed by Izvestia believe. Foreign observers of vessel traffic are also talking about a record time of 48-72 hours.: According to them, Russian fuel is on its way. Earlier, the presidents of the United States and Russia, Vladimir Putin and Donald Trump, agreed to supply 300,000 tons of diesel from Russia in October with the possibility of further increasing them up to 3 million tons per month. To fulfill the agreements, the Russian government partially lifted the ban on diesel exports ahead of schedule. About how the implementation of these supplies affects the economies of the Russian Federation and the world, which companies will supply and whether it is worth waiting for the sanctions to be eased, see the Izvestia article.
What volumes of diesel will be supplied from Russia to the USA
US President Donald Trump and Russian President Vladimir Putin have agreed during negotiations on the supply of Russian diesel fuel to the world market, the head of the White House said on October 9 in Truth Social. Soon, the Russian government announced that it was partially lifting the ban on the export of diesel fuel. The decision came into force on October 10 and at this stage will allow 500 thousand tons of diesel fuel to be supplied to the world market.
As reported to Izvestia by the office of Russian Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, Russia is ready to supply 300,000 tons of diesel to the US market, as well as to all Russian partners, as early as October, with a further increase in export shipments to 500,000 tons in November and up to 1 million tons in December. In the future, the volume may grow to 3 million tons per month.
"Russia positively assesses the steps taken by the United States aimed at stabilizing the global energy market and gradually restoring normal energy trade, and is ready for future coordination of actions aimed at creating a more predictable and healthy market," Alexander Novak's office added.
According to Igor Yushkov, a leading analyst at the National Energy Security Fund, the delivery from Russia, taking into account the time for loading, transporting and unloading the vessel, may take at least a week.
However, Alexander Frolov, deputy director of MIEP MGIMO, believes that delivery to the United States will take about a month. In his opinion, by the end of October, fuel from Russia will definitely not have time to reach American buyers. At the same time, according to the agreements, the Russian Federation can resume supplies to other countries, for example, to Turkey, which was the main buyer of Russian diesel before the restrictions were imposed, the expert believes.
However, marine analyst Michel Wiese Bokman previously reported on the social network X (banned in Russia) that the first batch of Russian diesel fuel had already left for the United States. According to the analytical company Windward, a tanker with 280 thousand barrels of fuel allegedly left St. Petersburg at the end of September, but its destination was not disclosed until yesterday. Bockman claims that the diesel shipment will arrive on the East Coast of the United States in the next 48-72 hours, but this information has not been confirmed by the authorities.
The government of the Russian Federation reported that, in compliance with the decision, Russian oil companies will immediately begin contracting diesel supplies with foreign counterparties. However, information about which companies will be involved in the supply is not disclosed. Izvestia sent inquiries to the Ministry of Energy, Rosneft, Lukoil and Gazprom Neft.
According to Donald Trump, thanks to US control over the Strait of Hormuz and an agreement with Russia, diesel prices in the United States and around the world will begin to decline rapidly.
At the end of September, the average price of fuel in the United States reached a historic high of $6.5 per gallon (about 3.8 liters) against the background of the ongoing shortage of both raw and processed raw materials on the world market. Prices for oil and petroleum products have been rising since the beginning of the war in Iran. According to the American Automobile Association on October 11, the national average for a gallon of diesel is $6.27.
As previously reported by Reuters, citing three sources in the oil industry, Donald Trump may soon issue an order in the format of a presidential memorandum aimed at curbing diesel prices in the country. The Wall Street Journal wrote that US oil companies have announced the beginning of a global fuel crisis, which industry leaders have been warning about in recent months.
Igor Yushkov explained that there is still no shortage of diesel fuel in the United States, now the United States is one of the largest exporters of petroleum products in the world. However, prices at American gas stations depend on export prices, which have increased significantly since the beginning of the war in the Middle East and the ban on fuel exports from Russia.
Although the volumes of supplies announced by the authorities are insignificant against the background of general consumption in the world and even in the United States, the supply of Russian diesel to any country will help to saturate the global market a little and lower prices, which is Trump's idea, Igor Yushkov believes.
The expert also noted that, despite small differences in the environmental requirements for fuel in the United States and the Russian Federation, Russian Euro-5 fuel is suitable for sale on the American market or for sale to other countries.
The impact of agreements on the economy
As noted in Alexander Novak's office, the Russian market will be fully supplied with diesel, despite export agreements.
"Russia, for its part, being one of the key suppliers of diesel to the global market, also immediately begins to lift restrictions on diesel exports earlier than planned," the office noted.
In turn, on October 9, the U.S. Treasury Department issued a temporary general license allowing operations with Russian diesel fuel previously prohibited by sanctions. The document is valid until April 7, 2027.
The ban on diesel exports was introduced on January 31, 2026 and applied only to non-manufacturers. Since July 9, the government has extended restrictions to its direct producers. Later, the ban was extended several times, until October 31, 2026. Today, Russia also has a total ban on gasoline exports until January 31, 2027.
In early October, Alexander Novak noted that there is no shortage of diesel in Russia now, factories produce 80% more diesel than is consumed in the domestic market.
Dmitry Gusev, Deputy Chairman of the Supervisory Board of the Reliable Partner Association, noted that the announced supply volumes of up to 3 million tons per month are insignificant for Russian production and therefore will not affect the provision of domestic consumers. For comparison, in February of this year, before the restrictions were imposed, the total export of diesel fuel from Russian ports amounted to 2.3 million tons, which was about 30% lower than in January, RBC wrote.
Igor Yushkov believes that the agreements between Trump and Putin should entail the freezing or lifting of sanctions against any Russian oil company. Currently, the largest corporations of the Russian Federation - Rosneft, Lukoil, Gazpromneft and Surgutneftegaz — are on the US SDN list, which prohibits any contacts with the listed company.
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