What should an investor keep an eye on this week

In the coming week, market dynamics will mainly depend on geopolitics. The telephone conversation between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin and the subsequent news about the deal on the sale of diesel fuel dispersed the market. The Moscow Exchange index has exceeded 2,400 points for the first time since the end of June. However, tight monetary policy continues to put pressure on the quotes. An additional risk is created by the acceleration of inflation: from September 29 to October 5, consumer prices rose by 0.96% against 0.12% a week earlier. Since the beginning of the year, the price increase has reached 5.94%. Against this background, investors may lower expectations for further monetary easing at the Central Bank's October 23 meeting. Currently, the key rate is 14%.

Monday, October 12, is the last day for the purchase of Gazprom Neft and Tatneft shares for dividends for the first half of 2026. On the same day, Aeroflot will present its operating results for September.

On October 13, PIK will hold an extraordinary general meeting of shareholders, which will consider the issue of delisting the company's shares.

On Wednesday, the Bank of Russia will publish several materials at once: "What the trends say", "Regional economy", "Monitoring of enterprises" and a macroeconomic survey, analysts of the Management Company "First" recalled. Rosstat will provide inflation data for October 6-12. These publications will help investors assess the prospects for reducing the key interest rate.

On October 15, Henderson will present its operating results for the third quarter and nine months of 2026. In addition, this is the last day of trading in PEAK shares in the T+1 mode on the Moscow Stock Exchange.

On Friday, October 16, Bank Saint Petersburg will publish financial results for the first nine months according to RAS, and X5 will disclose operating figures for the third quarter and nine months. It is also the last day for the purchase of shares of "Mother and Child" for dividends for the first half of the year.

The Moscow Exchange index, according to the assessment of financial advisor and founder Rodin.Alexey Rodin's Capital will be at the level of 2400-2500 points. Positive news is driving up the share prices of oil companies, but there is no need to talk about a steady trend yet, since so far the market reaction is more speculative, the expert believes.

Prices remain under pressure in the bond market. The acceleration of inflation reduces expectations of an early reduction in the key rate, and significant volumes of new government securities placement increase competition for investors' money. The RGBI index, according to Alexey Kovalev, head of Debt market Analysis at Finam, will remain in the range of 110-111 points.

According to analysts, the ruble will trade in the range of 84.5–86.5 rubles per dollar, 95-97 rubles per euro and 12.6–12.8 rubles per yuan this week.