As a last resort: what threatens the world after the depletion of oil reserves
The G7 countries have agreed to release an additional 100 million barrels of crude oil and petroleum products from their own reserves to the market. At the same time, Saudi Aramco (in fact, the government of Saudi Arabia) warned of the depletion of global commercial and strategic reserves, which could lead to dark times for the entire global economy. How long the current reserves will last and how their future shortage will turn out is in the Izvestia material.
The final resource
The G7 has submitted another inventory printout (in which Japan will not participate) as a coordinated measure to stabilize prices. In fact, this step was the result of political pressure from Washington: US President Donald Trump threatened to completely ban the export of American diesel fuel, forcing the allies to open their own national storage facilities.
It should be noted that stock quotes reacted to this intervention with extreme restraint. Brent crude oil continues to trade above the $102 per barrel mark (before the start of the Iranian campaign, it was around $70). Prices in the retail market are breaking records. For example, in the UK, the cost of a liter of diesel has fixed at 2 pounds ($2.64). The weak sensitivity of the market to government injections shows that spending them only helps to stay afloat, but not to bring down prices.
Meanwhile, the resource is by no means unlimited. This week, the head of Saudi state-owned Saudi Aramco, Amin Nasser, speaking at the Energy Intelligence Forum in London, said that the global airbag was "frighteningly depleted," and Western countries had used their last big trump card. The current 100 million barrels are allocated in addition to the March commitments (at that time it was about 400 million, of which 325 million have already been spent). At first glance, global reserves are huge — global statistics estimate commercial and government reserves at about 6 billion barrels. However, according to Nasser, there is a caveat: less than 10% of this volume is available for extraction.
The remaining 90% is the so-called dead residue. This is the process oil needed to maintain operating pressure in thousands of kilometers of main pipelines. This is the minimum level of raw materials in underground salt caverns, necessary to ensure that the cave arches do not collapse under rock pressure. It is impossible to extract these reserves without destroying the storage infrastructure itself. That is, in reality, we have only the upper, rather thin, layer.
It's for the New Year
The unity of importers has been put to the test in this situation. On October 5, the Japanese government officially refused to participate in the new G7 intervention. The Secretary General of the Japanese Cabinet of Ministers, Minoru Kihara, said there were no plans to unload oil, pointing to the exhaustion of safe withdrawal limits.
Tokyo can be understood: at the end of December 2025, Japanese reserves (including public, private and joint reserves) they amounted to an impressive 470 million barrels. In the spring, the country took on the brunt of balancing the Asian market: in March, about 53.5 million barrels were produced, and in April, the second round took place — another 36 million barrels. After spending almost a fifth of its reserves, Japan halted the process, reserving the remainder to ensure the operation of thermal power plants in the upcoming winter period.
A similar situation is observed in South Korea, whose economy depends on supplies through the Strait of Hormuz. Seoul has been saving its remaining reserves for quite some time. In the United States, the strategic oil reserve dropped to the lows of the early 1980s in the summer (in the region of 330-340 million barrels). The administration of Donald Trump understands that it is impossible to use the last resort, and prefers to put pressure on the allies to solve the problems of the global oil market (especially since they are, perhaps, more of them than the American ones).
The Chinese Mystery
Against the background of the global deficit (which is not limited only to difficulties in the West — developing countries are suffering no less), China's position deserves special attention. In recent months, Beijing has significantly reduced the volume of purchases of crude oil on foreign markets. At first, this was due to a sharp increase in the share of electric vehicles and the transition of some heavy trucks to liquefied natural gas.
But if you go into the details, not everything is so clear. The electrification of the fleet does reduce overall demand, but the strict restrictions recently imposed by the Chinese authorities on the export of diesel fuel indicate a growing domestic shortage of medium distillates. This means that China's reduction in oil imports is caused not only by the green transition, but also by the large-scale expenditure of its own strategic reserve, hidden from the eyes of world statistics. It is huge, but most likely, a considerable part of it has already been spent.
Beijing uses the cheap oil accumulated during the period of low prices to protect its industry from quotations of $100. This maneuver temporarily restrains global prices (without Chinese demand, a barrel could well go over the $150 mark), but Chinese storage facilities are also not endless. When China has to return to large-scale purchases, the market will receive a new powerful price impulse. It is good if this happens when the shortage in current supplies is overcome. But what if it doesn't?
Depletion scenarios
In her speech, BP CEO Meg O'Neill pointed out the dangerous carelessness of a number of states hoping to wait out the crisis with temporary injections. Emergency reserves make it possible to survive next winter, but the long-term failure in logistics and production will not go away.
If the conflict over Iran does not end in the coming months, and the Strait of Hormuz remains a high-risk area, by the spring of 2027, the global economy will face a situation of zero available reserves. At some point, oil pricing will cease to be a market process. When the reserves amortizing the market run out, there will be a transition to direct rationing. The governments of importing countries will be forced to impose limits on the sale of fuel to private individuals, limit the operation of energy-intensive industries and forcibly reduce the schedule of the aviation schedule. There is no need to talk about economic growth in such a situation. Inflation will remain if it does not increase.
Moreover, as the head of Saudi Aramco noted, the end of hostilities will not bring quick relief. As soon as the situation returns to normal, all States will need to restore their strategic reserves at the same time. The current commercial demand will be overlaid by a huge government, estimated at hundreds of millions of barrels. The process of replenishing the storage facilities will take at least two years, forming customer stocks (no one will want to get into such a situation a second time). This ensures that high energy prices will remain well beyond 2026, perpetuating inflationary pressures on the global economy for many months, and maybe even years. And this is with a positive scenario.
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