Virtual overclocking: Russia leads the growth of e-commerce markets
Russia has entered the top twenty of the world's largest e-commerce markets and has been leading the way in terms of its development for the fifth year in a row. In 2025, the turnover of online commerce in the country exceeded 13 trillion rubles, and more than 2 million people provided their services through digital platforms, the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development told Izvestia. At the same time, the market continues to expand, although its average annual growth is gradually slowing down amid saturation. How the Russian online trading market is changing, what trends determine its development and what measures the government is introducing to support entrepreneurs — in the Izvestia article.
Leadership positions
For the fifth year in a row, Russia has maintained its leadership in terms of speed of development among the 20 largest global e-commerce markets. At the same time, the market is gradually approaching the saturation stage: the previous rates are decreasing, but the segment itself continues to grow.
According to official data for 2025, more than 2 million citizens provided their services through the platforms. At the same time, the volume of online commerce exceeded 13 trillion rubles, of which almost 70% accounted for platforms, the press service of the Ministry of Economic Development of Russia told Izvestia.
By 2030, exports of goods through marketplaces may reach 4-5 trillion rubles. In the structure of non-primary non-energy exports, this will give 5-6.3% against 3.3% in 2025. The turnover of online commerce in Russia will increase from 13.2 trillion rubles in 2025 to 15.7 trillion rubles in 2026. This forecast was formed by the expert group "Trade", taking into account the dynamics of the first half of 2026, when the Russian e-commerce showed a turnover of 7.2 trillion rubles. By 2030, online commerce is expected to account for 3.5% of Russia's GDP, compared with 1.9% in 2025, and the share of marketplaces will grow from 0.4% to 2%.
The Association of Digital Platforms notes that the pace of market expansion will become more moderate in the coming years: the average annual turnover growth is projected at about 20%, whereas in 2016-2025 it was 34% per year. The reason is the gradual saturation of the industry. At the same time, online commerce will continue to actively develop its infrastructure: the number of outlets connected to online sales should grow from 211 thousand to 400 thousand, and order acceptance and delivery points, including automated ones, from 310 thousand to 500 thousand. The average number of orders on marketplaces per inhabitant will also increase: from 59 in 2024 to 120 in 2030.
The regions make a significant contribution: they account for almost 80% of all online orders, while Moscow and St. Petersburg account for about 21%. Therefore, it is outside the largest cities that a significant part of the further expansion of the market is expected. Another important trend is the development of independent online commerce. Some sellers are gradually shifting sales from large universal marketplaces to their own stores. In 2026, the turnover of this segment may grow by 25.8% and amount to 5.75 trillion rubles. This is almost 35% of the total Russian e-commerce.
According to Data Insight, the structure of demand is also becoming different: the number of purchases is increasing faster than the cost per purchase. In 2026, Russians can place about 10 billion orders, which is about 20% more than a year earlier, when the figure was 8.3 billion. At the same time, over 81% of all orders come from the largest multicategory sites.
The average order amount decreases at the same time. In 2025, this figure decreased by 5% and amounted to about 1,610 rubles. According to forecasts, the decline will continue in 2026-2027, and by 2027 the average check on marketplaces may be in the range of 1,480-1,520 rubles. The reason, in particular, is related to the change in the shopping basket: users are more likely to purchase inexpensive consumer goods, groceries, cosmetics and household chemicals.
The proliferation of PVZ has also changed the habits of customers. Now it's easier for people to make several small orders during the week without collecting a large basket. Additional pressure on the purchase price is created by competition between sellers and numerous promotions of marketplaces.
Development prospects
The main goal of the state in the field of platform trading is to create more honest conditions for millions of sellers and pick-up points that relate to small businesses. An important task remains to limit the influence of large monopolies without reducing the pace of e-commerce development. The basis of the new system is Federal Law No. 289-FZ "On Certain Issues of Regulating the Platform Economy in the Russian Federation." It was adopted in the summer of 2025, and the document is officially valid from October 1, 2026. The requirements apply to large digital platforms from the special register of the Ministry of Economic Development with an audience of over 100,000 users per day.
The law introduces several significant guarantees for sellers. In particular, the marketplace does not have the right to hold promotions at the expense of the seller without his consent, and the upcoming sale must be notified at least 5 business days in advance. In addition, the rules of the search results should be clear, and unjustified reduction of the card or account blocking is prohibited. Fines from 100 to 400 thousand rubles are provided for such violations for legal entities. It is also impossible to change the offer with the deterioration of conditions "in one day": the partner must be informed about this at least 45 days in advance. There is also a mandatory electronic procedure for reviewing claims — a complaint about a fine or blocking must be sorted out within 15 days, and the identified error must be fixed within 48 hours.
Government assistance to businesses includes more than just site regulation. After the UAV attacks on logistics facilities, the government introduced special measures for the affected entrepreneurs. For some sellers, if the damage exceeds 5% of annual income, a deferral of tax payments and insurance premiums is provided from August 2026 to July 2027; the debt can then be paid in equal installments throughout the year. A moratorium on on-site tax audits is also in effect for these companies until the end of 2026.
On October 1, 2026, an experiment with public procurement through marketplaces began. Government Decree No. 1279 of 10/01/2026 allowed educational institutions to purchase teaching and upbringing tools directly on the relevant commercial electronic platforms. For entrepreneurs, this means access to an additional market funded from the budget. A separate area is digital infrastructure: The state has created a single digital service for checking goods, marking "Honest Mark", certificates and protection against counterfeiting. Connection to the marketplace system is free, and automated verification of GIS data takes 3 days.
In addition, companies that go beyond the Russian market receive support. Through the My Business and the Russian Export Center (REC) centers, entrepreneurs are compensated for part of the costs of promotion and logistics. When working with foreign sites, REC compensation can reach 50-80% of costs, and regional programs provide subsidies in the amount of 100-300 thousand rubles for marketplace commissions or the creation of their own online store.
In the coming years, the market will continue to grow by an average of 15-20% per year, and in the future it may exceed 15-20 trillion rubles in several years, Linda Ryzhykh, associate professor of the Department of Management at the Presidential Academy in St. Petersburg, told Izvestia. The main growth will be provided by large universal marketplaces, online food sales and the development of fast delivery services. In addition, the increase in volumes will certainly be influenced by the entry of traditional retail chains into e-commerce, sales growth in small towns and villages, as well as the development of niche segments.
The potential for further growth lies in the involvement of new entrepreneurs in working on platforms, including by increasing the transparency of their activities and protecting the interests of entrepreneurs by the state, an expert from the Popular Front noted in an interview with Izvestia. Analytics" Yaroslav Avdiyev. Transparent commission calculation rules and predictable working conditions should allow a person to run their own business and invest in its development. First of all, support should be directed to training citizens to work with platforms.
Переведено сервисом «Яндекс Переводчик»
