What should an investor keep an eye on this week

In the coming week, Russian investors will continue to monitor geopolitics. The market is primarily influenced by the news surrounding Russian-American contacts and a possible new round of negotiations. High oil prices are currently providing support. If the geopolitical background does not deteriorate, the Moscow Exchange index has a chance to keep from falling.

On Monday, October 5, the Ministry of Finance will report on the volume of transactions in the foreign exchange market within the framework of the budget rule, analysts of the First Management Company said. The event can trigger both an increase and a decrease in the ruble exchange rate.

October 8 is the last day for the purchase of shares of Zaimer and Cherkizovo with dividends for the second quarter and the first half of the year, respectively. Also on Tuesday, Rosstat will present inflation data from September 29 to October 5, which will help investors refine forecasts for future Central Bank key rate meetings.

Friday is the last day for the purchase of shares of T—Bank, Norilsk Nickel, Novabev Group and NOVATEK with dividends for the first half of the year. In addition, the BEAC will publish financial statements for the first nine months of 2026.

The Moscow Exchange index has been trying to move to growth in recent weeks, but has failed due to the general downward trend that has been in place since March. Finam analysts do not rule out that the index will return to the area of 2,200 points next week: the market still lacks strong reasons for growth.

The government debt market is primarily affected by the new draft budget. The Ministry of Finance has revealed borrowing plans for next year, and they look impressive — this puts pressure on government bond prices. The expected mark on the RGBI index is 111 points, analysts noted.

In the baseline scenario, the ruble will trade in the range of 83.5–85.5 per dollar, 95.5–97.5 per euro and 12.4–12.7 per yuan this week, Finam said.