Black route: Russia's share in global coal exports may reach 27% by 2050
According to the updated program for the development of the Russian coal industry until 2050, the country's share in global coal exports may increase significantly if the target scenario is implemented. In 2024, the figure was 13%, and by 2050 it is planned to increase it to 27%. To do this, the country plans to increase production, expand supplies to countries in Asia, the Middle East and Africa, and modernize the industry. What markets and infrastructure projects do Russia expect to increase coal exports through, and what risks may hinder the implementation of these plans? See the "Izvestia" article.
Investments in the coal sector
Russia has more than 273 billion tons of proven coal reserves, which provides the country with one of the leading positions in the world. At the same time, according to the Ministry of Energy and the Ministry of Natural Resources, the available resources are sufficient for more than 500 years of stable production. At the beginning of 2026, 146 billion tons (53.4%) accounted for brown coal, 118.2 billion tons (43.3%) accounted for hard coal, and another 8.9 billion tons (3.3%) accounted for anthracite. Coking grades account for about 41% of coal. Approximately 70% of the reserves are concentrated in the Kansk-Achinsk, Kuznetsk and Irkutsk basins.
At the same time, the total amount of explored resources may grow in the coming years. In particular, active geological exploration contributes to this: according to Rosnedra, reserves increased by 768 million tons in 2025, almost doubling the volume of annual production. Currently, Russia produces about 440 million tons of coal per year.
The program for the development of the coal industry until 2050, approved by the government, provides for the formation of new mining centers. By 2030, special attention will be paid to promising sites in the East of the country — in Yakutia, Khabarovsk Territory and Tuva.
Significant potential is associated with off-balance sheet resources: their volume is estimated at about 57 billion tons. Previously, the development of such reserves was considered economically unprofitable or technically difficult. However, as modern enrichment technologies are introduced and the industry's technological base is updated, some of these resources may be transferred to the category of balance reserves in the next 10 years.
Every year, subsoil users send about 200-250 billion rubles to the Russian coal industry. Although investment activity has decreased in recent years, sanctions, logistics problems and lower export prices are forcing companies to adjust costs. As a result, by the end of 2025, investments decreased by 19% to 201 billion rubles, compared with 248 billion rubles a year earlier.
The main investments, as a rule, go to the development of mining in the eastern regions, including Yakutia, Khabarovsk Krai and Tuva, as well as the creation of transport infrastructure. In particular, funds are being allocated for the construction of railway lines, including the Pacific Railway, and the renovation of coal-fired marine terminals. In addition, companies are modernizing mining equipment, developing digital solutions, and introducing unmanned technologies. This transfer of investments is related, among other things, to the focus on Asian markets.
At the same time, the coal industry mainly relies on private capital, while direct financing from the state remains limited. The Government applies support measures, including deferrals and installments for mineral extraction tax and insurance premiums, in order to preserve the working capital of enterprises. And, according to the new program for the development of the coal industry, by 2030 it is planned to create conditions for investment growth, technological renewal of the industry and an increase in production to 662 million tons.
The main directions of trade
More than 80% of Russian coal supplies abroad come from the Asia-Pacific region. After the introduction of the EU embargo, export routes were reoriented mainly to the East and South. Despite the sanctions, exports increased by 7.2% in the first eight months of 2026. China remains the largest buyer, which annually purchases about 70-90 million tons of Russian coal. At the same time, Russia ranks first in the supply of anthracite to China. India is also showing significant growth: from 2021 to 2025, exports there increased 3.7 times, reaching 28 million tons.
In addition, Turkey and South Korea remain important destinations. The Turkish market annually receives more than 25 million tons of Russian coal, while South Korea has increased purchases by 10% in some periods. In the future, Russia intends to expand its presence in Southeast Asian countries, including Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia, until 2050. The Middle East and Africa are also named as promising regions.
The main export routes pass through three marine basins. The Far Eastern ports of Vanino, Nakhodka and Vostochny provide access to Asian markets, Taman is used for supplies to Turkey, India and the Middle East, and the ports of Ust-Luga and Murmansk serve longer routes to Asia and Africa. At the same time, one of the main limitations remains the railway capacity of the Eastern polygon of Russian Railways, the expansion of which is a priority.
Export forecasts
By 2050, according to the industry development program, the country's share in global coal exports may increase to 27% under the target scenario. For comparison, in 2024 this figure was 13%.
The growth of the coal industry within the target scenario is associated with several conditions at once. First, it takes into account the possible increase in global demand for solid fuels, as well as the lifting of sanctions and the Western embargo in the long term. Secondly, production will gradually shift to Eastern Siberia and the Far East — to Yakutia, Tuva, Khakassia, Transbaikalia and Taimyr, which will bring Russian supplies closer to the markets of China, India and the Southeast Asian countries. Finally, the program provides for a large—scale technological upgrade: by 2050, open—pit mining should occupy 85%, enrichment - 76%, and labor productivity should more than double to 551 tons per person.
The economic effect can be significant. The contribution of the coal industry to GDP is expected to increase from 614 billion to 3.6 trillion rubles, and tax and insurance revenues to 853 billion rubles per year. The cumulative impact on related sectors of the economy, including construction, machinery manufacturing, metallurgy, and port services, is estimated at 9.4 trillion rubles. At the same time, exports may grow by 77%, exceeding 350 million tons, and coal transportation by rail in the eastern direction may double to 220.8 million tons. This will require further development of the Eastern polygon of Russian Railways, BAM, Transsib and seaports.
In addition, the program is focused on strengthening the technological sovereignty of the industry. It is expected to expand the domestic production of mining equipment, heavy machinery and digital solutions. It is important that an increase in production to 662 million tons should be accompanied by a reduction in the environmental burden: specific emissions of pollutants are planned to be reduced from 2.8 to 1.5 kg per 1 ton of coal. One of the factors contributing to this decline will be the closure of old mines and the introduction of more modern mining and processing technologies.
Russia's growing share in global coal exports by 2050 may support steady demand from China and India, Anastasia Priklyova, PhD in Economics, Associate Professor of the Department of International Business at Plekhanov Russian University of Economics, confirmed to "Izvestia". In India, coal consumption is projected to increase 1.1 times compared to 2021. At the same time, a reduction in their own reserves in these countries may lead to an increase in imports, and the geographical proximity of Russia will create additional supply opportunities. However, there may not be a significant increase in the cost of coal at comparable prices.
At the same time, the target version of the program depends on the growth of global demand and the lifting of sanctions and the European embargo, which looks like an unlikely prerequisite, Alexander Firanchuk, a leading researcher at the Laboratory for Foreign Trade Research at the Presidential Academy, warned in an interview with "Izvestia". Expansion of supplies to East Asia and the Middle East is possible, although exports face the risk of secondary sanctions, competition from China's own production and China's current import duties on Russian coal.
In response to a request, the Ministry of Natural Resources and Environment redirected "Izvestia" to the Ministry of Industry and Trade, the Ministry of Economic Development forwarded it to the Ministry of Energy, the rest of the departments did not respond at the time of publication.
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