How the rapprochement between the EU and Canada will increase global instability. Analysis

The head of the European Commission, Ursula von der Leyen, in her annual speech to the European Parliament, proposed strengthening EU cooperation with Canada and considering a new associate membership status for it, although it is still unclear what exactly it will mean from a legal point of view. In addition, she called for the creation of a European mechanism similar to NATO's article four and a separate European Security Council. These initiatives have provoked active discussions within the European Union and a negative reaction in the United States, and their possible impact on international relations remains a matter of discussion. What consequences such initiatives will have in the world is discussed in "Izvestia".

Reasons for the rapprochement

• The tariff policy of US President Donald Trump has forced Canada and the European Union to look for new trade opportunities. For Canada, dependence on the American market is particularly noticeable: approximately 70% of the country's exports go to the United States. The EU is also strongly linked to Washington, with the American market accounting for about 20% of European exports. In addition, the United States has played an important role in ensuring Europe's security for decades, including significant defense funding.

• Trump's "America First" policy, accompanied by trade conflicts and threats of new tariffs, has changed relations with partners. Instead of increasing dependence on the United States, Canada and the EU began to actively seek alternative markets and areas of cooperation. This created additional conditions for the rapprochement of the two sides and the expansion of existing economic ties.

• Canada and Europe have similar political and social orientations, which is reflected in their approaches to international relations. Both sides advocate globalization, international cooperation, social programs, treat minorities equally, promote a green climate agenda and business regulation, while the US administration relies on protectionism and deregulation. Canada and the European Union support multilateralism through the UN, the WTO, and international agreements, while Washington prefers bilateral agreements and a forceful approach. More than half of Canadians consider the country's views closer to European than to American ones.

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The main vectors of cooperation

• In 2025, trade and economic ties between the European Union and Canada have significantly strengthened. In particular, the total volume of trade in goods and services exceeded 130 billion euros ($143 billion), which is almost 80% more than in 2017, when the temporary application of the Comprehensive Economic and Trade Agreement (CETA) between the EU and Canada began.

• At the same time, trade in goods reached about €82 billion: EU exports amounted to €48.8 billion, while imports from Canada amounted to €32.9 billion. Europe mainly supplied machinery, chemical and pharmaceutical products, as well as transportation equipment. Mineral raw materials, precious metals and foodstuffs were supplied in the opposite direction. In addition, the volume of trade in services increased to 51 billion euros, primarily due to transport and tourism. The total amount of mutual foreign direct investment exceeded €470 billion.

• Since March 2026, the parties have been negotiating a digital commerce agreement that should cover data protection, artificial intelligence, supercomputers, and quantum technologies. At the same time, defense cooperation is developing: Canada became the first country outside Europe to join the EU's "Security Action for Europe" initiative, which opened up the opportunity for its companies to participate in European defense projects. In addition, the EU and Canada plan to strengthen cooperation in the Arctic. At the same time, the issue of final ratification of CETA remains unresolved: 17 of the 27 EU states have fully approved the agreement (among the countries that have not fully completed the procedure, such large countries as France and Italy remain).

• One of the reasons for this course was Canada's desire to expand the circle of trading partners amid disagreements with the United States. It is also important for the EU to reduce external economic risks. Therefore, special attention is being paid to energy and raw materials: Europe is interested in stable supplies of Canadian liquefied natural gas, hydrogen and rare earth metals.

The US reaction

• Canada's rapprochement with the European Union, including the September 2026 initiative on the possible status of an associate member of the EU, is strongly opposed in Washington. For the United States, such a partnership means weakening economic influence in North America, reducing Ottawa's dependence on the American market and forming a close bond between Canada and the EU against the backdrop of US President Donald Trump's protectionist policies.

• Energy is becoming one of the key factors: Canada remains important to the US economy as the largest external source of a number of energy resources and industrial raw materials: approximately 60% of US oil imports are covered by Canada, which, in turn, sends about 97% of the oil exported to the United States. The country also plays a key role in providing the United States with natural gas, influencing prices, particularly in the Northeastern United States. In addition, Ottawa remains the main foreign supplier of electricity, uranium, copper and potash fertilizers. Canada's reorientation towards the EU can reduce Canada's dependence on the American market and limit Washington's previous advantages in access to Canadian raw materials.

• The trade conflict intensifies the contradictions, because closer relations with the EU allow Canada to look for alternative markets, which affects the interests of the American Midwest industry before the US Congressional elections. At the same time, Trump restricted the access of Canadian goods to US government purchases.

Of particular importance is the cooperation between Ottawa and Brussels in the field of critical minerals, space and artificial intelligence. Against the background of Canada's attempts to expand trade relations through CETA and obtain the status of an associate member of the EU, Washington perceives this course as a challenge to the "America First" policy. "Donald Trump" called the idea of Canadian-European integration "ridiculous" and allowed the imposition of large duties or the cessation of trade with Europe in certain areas if he considers such a rapprochement a "hostile act."

Provocation of allies and neighbors

• Canada's rapprochement with the European Union (EU) can certainly significantly change the usual balance of international forces. If Ottawa does switch to an associate membership format, its traditional dependence on Washington will gradually weaken. However, the consequences of such a course will affect not only relations between Canada and the United States: the changes may affect trade, security, and the political influence of several major players at once.

First of all, tensions are escalating in the economic sphere: Canada has already imposed tariffs ranging from 15% to 50% on American steel, electronics, and dairy products. In response, Donald Trump threatened the EU with "heavy duties" if an agreement with Ottawa is concluded. Thus, the local trade dispute is gradually acquiring a transatlantic scale. Moreover, possible restrictions could affect supply chains with a total value of hundreds of billions of dollars, and this, in turn, could further increase global inflationary pressures.

• No less serious changes are taking place in the field of defense. For example, in March 2026, the European Parliament approved a resolution on closer integration of the Canadian military-industrial complex into European structures, including PESCO projects. At the same time, the Trump administration is reducing support for NATO, so the differences between Washington and Ottawa are becoming more noticeable. At the same time, the importance of the Arctic is increasing: Canada has large reserves of lithium, nickel and cobalt, as well as significant energy resources. The reorientation of supplies to the European market can exacerbate the struggle for raw materials, energy resources and northern transport routes.

• For Canada itself, however, such a turnaround may be far from easy. Close cooperation with the EU implies a deeper alignment of national legislation and standards with European norms, which at the same time can weaken the former economic link with North America. At the same time, the importance of the American market for Ottawa remains enormous. Against this background, a referendum on autonomy or secession is scheduled for October in Alberta, the country's main oil-producing region.

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• The consequences of such a rapprochement could spread much wider than Canadian-European relations. If Ottawa manages to build a sustainable partnership with the EU, other middle powers may also pay attention to a similar model. In particular, Australia has announced the expansion of cooperation with Brussels, and certain regions of the UK are showing interest in special formats of interaction. As a result, global trade may gradually shift from a single WTO rule system to competition from several large blocs, which in turn will increase the importance of regional alliances, tariffs, and individual supply chains.

• The idea of closer cooperation between the EU and Canada has caused disagreements within the European Union itself: some European governments consider the decision of the head of the EC insufficiently coordinated with the member states. At the same time, a number of European states do not want to create another reason for conflict with the United States, so support for deepening relations with Canada remains ambiguous. Among other things, there is a possible risk of tension in relations between the EU and the candidate countries, some of which have been waiting for their turn for years. In the case of Canada's associate membership, they will have a question about the reasons for bypassing candidates belonging to the European continent.