The Arctic under the dome: why the civil development of the Arctic is inextricably linked with the military
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- The Arctic under the dome: why the civil development of the Arctic is inextricably linked with the military
The Arctic is one of the strategic directions of Russia's economic development and geopolitical interests. In August, the first Arctic Express vessels passed through the Northern Sea Route from China to Europe, and by 2035, Russia plans to build a network of energy, transport, rescue, port and communication facilities in the Arctic belt. Interest in the region is growing all over the world, and this interest is not only a partnership one — the polar zone is becoming a point of attraction for NATO countries as well. About what is necessary to ensure a peaceful future on the northern borders of the country — in the material of Izvestia.
They speak openly
Experts have repeatedly argued that even after the end of the conflict in Ukraine, under no circumstances will NATO stop putting pressure on Russia. Economic stagnation, production cuts, limited resources, climate change, an aging population and replacement migration at a critical point — all this pushes the alliance countries to search for new sources of their own fuel. And for some reason they see them in Russia. Many prerequisites indicate that the Arctic and the northern regions may become one of the main points of confrontation in the next 10-15 years.
After Finland and Sweden joined NATO, seven of the eight Arctic states became members of the union. The only Arctic state outside of NATO is Russia. The Arctic is becoming a new arena of direct global rivalry as the West tries to challenge Russia's position in the Arctic. This has been talked about openly and for a long time. But this year, especially against the background of the Iranian conflict and the closure of the Strait of Hormuz, statements have become more and more explicit.
For example, the Northern Sea Route is not recognized in the West as a space of full exclusive control of Russia if Russian requirements affect freedom of navigation, the right of peaceful passage and transit passage. In other words, this can be interpreted as the desire of NATO countries to use our Arctic corridor freely and for free, and therefore they are wondering whether the Russian Federation can treat the Northern Sea Route as a fully controlled national corridor. Although Russia was, is, and will be its rightful mistress.
At the Madrid summit in June 2022, NATO included the Arctic issue in its new Strategic Concept for the first time in a long time, pointing to Russia's growing military activity in the region as a challenge to the alliance's security.
The United States explicitly calls Russia its main rival in the Arctic in the annual threat assessment report of the Office of the Director of National Intelligence dated March 2026. It also states that Russia wants to change the global balance of power, but the conflict with Ukraine has "limited its ability to fully realize its Arctic ambitions."
Words and deeds also do not differ: from August 26 to September 4, the Norwegian armed forces, together with units of the United States and Great Britain, conducted the Operation Atlantic City exercises as part of the Arctic Sentry global initiative. At the same time, Norway formed an artillery division on the Russian borders. By 2030, the kingdom plans to deploy missiles with a range of up to 500 km, with the Northern Fleet in their range. Similarly, Sweden is discussing the purchase of French MdCN sea-based missiles with a range of 1.4 thousand km.
As Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov emphasized in an article for the Arctic portal, NATO intends to turn the Arctic into a new front of confrontation with Russia. According to him, Western partners do not hide their true goals — to restrain the development of Moscow and its allies in high latitudes. A similar statement was made on August 31 by Nikolai Patrushev, Assistant to the President of the Russian Federation and head of the Maritime Board. He noted that Western countries "are making efforts aimed at undermining the economic and defense capabilities of our country, in every possible way hindering the formation of international maritime logistics and security in the Arctic."
"Of course, Russia will overcome all difficulties. The comprehensive implementation of new investment projects, the formation of the Transarctic Transport Corridor, the development of energy infrastructure, the intensification of scientific research, ensuring reliable protection of our Arctic territories and waters — all this will contribute to strengthening Russia's national security and improving the quality of life in the Arctic region," he said at the opening of a scientific and practical conference dedicated to the 85th anniversary of the arrival of The first allied convoy "Dervish" arrived in Arkhangelsk.
Untold riches
The reasons for the growing interest in the Arctic lie on the surface — literally and figuratively. According to the Russian government, more than 70% of Russia's gas reserves and almost 30% of its oil are concentrated in the Arctic. The U.S. Geological Survey estimated the technically recoverable resources of the entire area north of the Arctic Circle at about 90 billion barrels of oil and 47 trillion cubic meters of gas. The Arctic, according to USGS calculations, accounted for about 13% of the world's undiscovered oil resources and 30% of gas. The introduction of this volume of resources into economic circulation will give Russia huge revenues for many years.
The strategic importance of the expanding Northern Sea Route is also difficult to overestimate. This is an alternative to the troublesome routes along the African continent and the Middle East, in addition, the route is twice as short as traditionally through the Suez Canal. China has already launched the first weekly container caravan through the Northern Sea Route, poetically calling it the China–Europe Arctic Express. Cargo traffic between Russia and China along the NSR is expected to reach 20 million tons by 2030. The long-term potential of the Arctic is enormous, and there are plenty of people who want to have influence in these territories.
So that they don't even twitch
While Brussels is drawing maps with cherished arrows in the direction of our North, Russia is not making plans — it is building infrastructure. One of the most illustrative examples is the Kola NPP-2. The project should provide more than 5,000 jobs. The first power unit is scheduled to be commissioned in 2035, and the second in 2037. The Russian Ministry of Emergency Situations plans to build more than 20 emergency infrastructure facilities in the Arctic by 2050. The first five are expected to appear in 2026-2031. The list includes infrastructure in Sabetta, a center in Tiksi, a center in Dikson starting in 2028, facilities in Khatanga and airfield infrastructure in Coal Mines. The Ministry of Emergency Situations directly connects this system with the Transarctic Transport Corridor from St. Petersburg through Murmansk and Arkhangelsk to Vladivostok. In parallel, the civil infrastructure will be tightened up. The state is actually forming a network of support points along the Northern Sea Route, which will concentrate communications, aviation, energy supply, transport, personnel and the ability to quickly respond to an emergency situation.
Taking into account the signals coming from NATO, the Arctic's development and life support infrastructure should be reliably covered by the military component, and its configuration should take into account the experience and new approaches to conducting combat operations in Ukraine.
In the harsh Arctic, where the climate itself is a weapon, any offensive operation becomes irrational in terms of losses. Russia is a leader in the development and production of equipment for extreme conditions. Our territories are reliably protected, first of all, by the United Strategic Command North, the most powerful formation of the Russian Navy, uniting various branches of the armed forces. The construction of the declared infrastructure network will require additional reinforcement.
It should be noted that the effective development of the Far North and the strengthening of Russia in the Arctic in the current situation is directly linked to the military component. The growth of infrastructure and points of presence should lead to the expansion of the defense system. The dome of the Arctic has three main components: the Navy, the Air Force and the air defense. And at the moment, the role of the latter is the leading one. This is a multi-layered defense system, in which the latest Tor-M2DT anti-aircraft missile systems occupy a special place, integrated into the unified air defense command of the country, including interaction with the S-300, S-400, S-500 systems and long-range radar stations.
Almaz-Antey Concern, the manufacturer of the complex, is actively working on the modernization of the complex. It is assumed that in the near future the maximum operating temperature will be minus 60 degrees, a new, cheaper shortened smaller-caliber missile for mass destruction of drones will appear, and artificial intelligence algorithms that analyze the air situation and pre-classify targets will be integrated into the control system. The operator only needs to confirm the start. In the future, it will be a completely autonomous mode, when the system will make decisions without human involvement in massive attacks. Paired with the marine version of the Tor-M2KM, which has been successfully tested in the Arctic and can be installed on almost any vessel, both military and civilian, we get a mobile and extremely reliable air defense network against many threats — from ballistics to UAVs.
The expert community has repeatedly talked about the importance of synchronizing the construction of civil infrastructure with safety requirements. Russian officials at the highest level have repeatedly warned that threats to shipping, critical infrastructure, or sovereignty in the Arctic are a red line. The Arctic was, is, and will be Russian, and any talk about freedom of navigation for everyone and the not-so-exclusive sovereignty of the Russian Federation should be nipped in the bud. This includes strengthening our "ice dome."
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