Trade duel: EU threatens China with market closure
Brussels and Beijing are teetering on the brink of a tariff war. The European Union is seeking to extract unilateral concessions from China by threatening a "trade bazooka" and market closure. The Chinese authorities, in turn, consider the EU's claims to be political, not legal at all. Meanwhile, the EU's deficit in trade in goods with China has reached €359.8 billion per year (€1 billion per day). However, experts warn that restrictions on Chinese imports will hurt European industry itself, and only the United States will benefit from this. Details can be found in the Izvestia article.
It didn't work out
The European Union is threatening to close its market to China if trade negotiations between Brussels and Beijing fail. China has already warned the EU against such a step, calling for an equal dialogue, the Global Times reports.
"Consultations at all levels between China and the EU should adhere to a stable and balanced approach to their critically important trade partnership, uphold the principle of resolving mutual concerns on an equal basis, and should not allow unilateral demands, conditions, or even more frequent threats of market closure," said Huang Lin, an official representative of the Ministry of Commerce of the People's Republic of China.
Chinese Deputy Commerce Minister Lin Ji held talks with Denis Redonne, the EU Representative for Trade Policy towards China, in Beijing in early September. An employee of the EU executive body said that the association expects to obtain concessions from China.
European officials have been trying to improve economic relations and even out the huge trade deficit with China. The meeting was also devoted to preparations for the second meeting of the China-EU Trade and Investment Consultation mechanism, which, as previously reported by the Ministry of Commerce, will be held this fall.
Later, European Commissioner for Trade Maros Sefcovic said that "China must achieve concrete results" in negotiations with the European Union by October, otherwise the country will face "tougher measures." He also added that "the EU may resort to defensive instruments" if the dialogue fails.
The European Union is currently experiencing a record deficit in trade with China — last year, according to the Eurostat sociological service, it amounted to €359.8 billion, and in the first quarter of 2026 it reached a record €103 billion, that is, about €1 billion per day. A similar situation occurred five years ago and led to serious problems in relations between Beijing and Brussels.
The European Commission (EC) is confident that the growth of Chinese exports is due to the low exchange rate, subsidies and excess production capacity. The supply of goods at prices below European prices may lead to the deindustrialization of certain industries. Therefore, the European Union is threatening serious measures, including the closure of its markets for Chinese goods, if negotiations on deficit reduction fail.
EC President Ursula von der Leyen has a mandate to use the so―called bazooka trade, a tool to combat economic threats and "unfair" trade restrictions from non-EU countries.
We are talking about the possible imposition of duties on imported goods, restrictions on investment, imports and exports, as well as the withdrawal of intellectual property protection and a ban on foreign companies participating in European public procurement, which makes imports almost impossible. However, the "trade bazooka" has never been used, although it was threatened to be used in response to the US tariff war against the EU, which was started by President Donald Trump.
Chinese media believe that Brussels' tough stance "will not solve fundamental problems and will only poison the atmosphere of dialogue." Huang Lin has already called on the EU to adhere to the principles of free trade and "not to slide into the abyss of protectionism."
In China, they express their readiness to reduce the trade surplus with the European Union. However, the EU fears that it will not be possible to reach concrete agreements by October.
At the same time, experts do not rule out that the strengthening of trade barriers may hurt European companies themselves, since it only meets the interests of the United States ― it is American goods that can replace Chinese, and not European ones at all. In fact, Brussels will simply help Washington weaken China's position and cope with economic difficulties.
Europe is determined to be tough
Germany is taking a rather tough stance towards China. German Chancellor Friedrich Merz instructed his government to prepare possible retaliatory measures, and Finance Minister and Vice Chancellor Lars Klingbeil called for the protection of key European industries, pointing to the need to secure the automotive, steel, chemical and pharmaceutical industries.
Amsterdam is also being warned about the risks of inaction. At the same time, an environmental levy on "ultra-fast fashion" products came into force in France on September 1. The new rules directly affect the largest Asian e-commerce platforms such as Shein, Temu and AliExpress.
The law evaluates retailers based on two main criteria: the volume of the daily updated assortment and the ratio of the price of an item to the cost of its repair. Since Shein and Temu sell thousands of new clothing models at ultra-low prices every day, they are subject to the maximum tariffs. In response, the Chinese Ministry of Commerce accused the EU of applying double standards under the guise of "environmental" standards.
A new phase of containment
"Faced with growing internal pressure, European politicians should think about their own structural problems and restore competitiveness through strength and innovation, rather than shifting all the blame to the Chinese side," said Jian Junbo, director of the Center for the Study of Sino—European Relations at Fudan University.
According to the expert, accusations and pressure will not solve the problems, so the EU "should abandon the unilateral approach and better resolve differences through bilateral consultations and dialogue" so that relations between Beijing and Brussels remain on a stable and sustainable trajectory.
Political scientist Valeria Belyaeva believes that the European Commission, which has already become accustomed to pushing the sanctions button with almost impunity, suddenly suddenly felt how this could work in its direction. Beijing, by adding 14 organizations from EU countries to the list of export control entities this summer in response to the 21st package of EU sanctions against Russia, sent a clear signal to Europe: the era when sanctions were exclusively a Western instrument of pressure is ending. And in Brussels, they were clearly not ready for such a boomerang.
Most analysts agree that so far it has not come to a new trade war between the European Union and China, the expert said.
"It can be assumed that this approach will continue to be maintained in principle, showing China's pragmatism in any further escalation. Both sides are not interested in a complete breakup yet. European industry is too connected to China. Chinese exports depend on the European market," Belyaeva said.
However, the former trust between the parties has long been gone, the political scientist is convinced. China, having decided to show the European Union the limits of sanctions pressure, made it clear that it is ready to use "the most powerful economic levers against Europe" to protect its interests. According to the expert, Beijing is now using trade as an element of national strength.
"The situation is teetering on the edge, but it is characterized not so much by the inevitability of a clash as by the transition to a new phase of rigid, asymmetric deterrence, which can be called a time of controlled trade confrontation. This trend is likely to become the main feature of EU—China relations in the coming years," the expert concluded.
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