The economist assessed the prospects for oil and the impact of prices on the ruble

Oil prices are likely to remain in an elevated range in the coming months due to geopolitical risks and supply constraints, but sustained growth above $100 per barrel is unlikely without major supply disruptions. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia about this on August 24.

"For the coming months, the baseline scenario is that oil will remain in an elevated, but not extreme range: the benchmark for Brent is about $85-95 per barrel with periodic spikes in geopolitics," the expert noted.

According to Astafyev, the oil market is currently supported by risks around the Middle East, possible logistical constraints, low reserves and a cautious policy by producers. At the same time, the consolidation of quotations above $ 100 per barrel will require a new major supply disruption. The expert noted that the key factor for oil prices remains not only the level of global demand, but also the balance between the geopolitical premium and the volume of supply. While threats to sea routes and supplies persist, the market places additional risks in the price of oil.

He noted that the aggravation of the situation around the Strait of Hormuz was one of the reasons for the sharp increase in quotations in early August. However, with supplies restored and production increased by OPEC+ or individual producers, prices may quickly lose support. The expert added that the recent decline in oil prices to a three-week low showed a high sensitivity of the market to signals of a possible oversupply.

According to the expert, oil demand will remain stable with moderate growth in the near future. At the same time, the global economy is not showing signs of a sharp drop in consumption, but China and Europe are not yet creating conditions for new oil growth. Astafyev stressed that this is why the market is now reacting more strongly to supply disruptions and geopolitical events than to changes in demand. This leads to high volatility when the price of oil changes rapidly under the influence of news.

Negotiating interest: what will the Iran-Oman deal on Hormuz bring to the Middle East

Normalization in the region can only be temporary — the United States has its own way of looking at the situation.

According to the expert, a sharp jump in prices is possible in the event of a new geopolitical crisis, for example, supply disruptions through key routes, increased sanctions or military escalation. In the opposite scenario, associated with the restoration of supplies, rising inventories and declining demand, the market may face a significant decline. Astafyev called the most likely scenario a volatile oil movement in a limited range, when the market will balance between expectations of further growth and downside risks.

At the same time, the high cost of oil remains a support factor for the Russian ruble, as it increases export earnings, budget revenues and current account indicators. However, according to the expert, this dependence has become less direct due to the impact of sanctions, settlements in various currencies, budget rules, import demand and capital flows.

Astafyev noted that the current situation shows a change in the traditional relationship between oil and the ruble. Despite the increase in the value of Brent since the beginning of August, the Russian currency has weakened against the dollar and the euro during this period. Thus, expensive oil continues to support the ruble, but it is no longer a guarantee of its strengthening, the expert concluded.

On August 17, Bloomberg noted that Middle Eastern oil exporters are secretly transporting raw materials through the Strait of Hormuz. Agency sources claim that the actual volume of supplies exceeds market forecasts by 4 million barrels per day.

At the same time, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz has declined sharply amid the risks of attacks and rising insurance costs, despite Trump's statements about full US control over the maritime corridor.