The economist announced the possible growth of gold above $ 4,6 thousand per ounce.
Investors' interest in precious metals remains high amid demand for protective assets, however, after a significant increase in quotations, further price movements may be accompanied by corrections. In the coming months, gold will be able to stay in the range of $4.2–4.6 thousand per ounce. Denis Astafyev, an entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform, told Izvestia about this on August 10.
He clarified that at the time of making the forecast, gold futures were trading at about $4,415 per ounce, silver at about $64.5, platinum at $1,759, and palladium at $1,369.
"The base scenario for gold assumes that prices will remain high, but it is not worth counting on continuous growth without corrections. The quotes are supported by expectations of lower interest rates, investor interest in defensive assets, geopolitical uncertainty and long—term diversification of reserves by central banks," the expert noted.
At the same time, after a strong increase in the value of gold and other precious metals, they became more sensitive to the situation on the American market. Astafyev called the strengthening of the dollar and the tougher stance of the US Federal Reserve System (FRS) the main risks. These factors can put pressure on the entire sector.
Silver, unlike gold, simultaneously acts as a protective and industrial asset, the economist added. Due to this, during periods of optimism in the markets, its value can increase faster, but with deteriorating expectations about the global economy, the decline may also be more pronounced.
In the coming months, the expert expects silver to move mainly in the range of $ 60-70 per ounce. At the same time, the volatility of this metal is likely to remain higher than that of gold.
According to Astafyev, the dynamics of platinum and palladium are more dependent on industrial demand. The situation in the automotive industry and the processes of substitution of metals used in the production of automotive catalysts have a significant impact on their cost. For this reason, it is more difficult to predict their quotes, since they are more strongly influenced by industry factors.
For gold, the economist called the base range for the coming months to be $4.2–4.6 thousand per ounce. With further growth in demand for defensive assets, quotes are able to rise above the upper limit of this corridor.
"The main risk for the entire sector is a strong dollar and rising real yields in the United States, while the main driver of growth remains the expectation of monetary policy easing and continued geopolitical uncertainty in the world," the expert concluded.
Arina Kostryukova, Director of Currency and Precious Metals Markets at the Moscow Stock Exchange, said on June 21 that Russian investors had significantly increased their investments in precious metals. According to the Moscow Stock Exchange, about 76% of private investors' investments in precious metals are in gold, and another 22% are in silver.
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