How Macron's future departure affects current European politics. Analysis

European countries are already preparing for the departure of Emmanuel Macron from the post of president of France in 2027. Due to the fact that he cannot ensure the continuity of his political course, the European Union is increasingly cautious about the initiatives of the Elysee Palace. This threatens both the existence of the "coalition of the willing" and Paris' proposals to reform the European defense industry. How Macron loses influence at the end of his term is in the Izvestia article.

The situation before the elections

• France will have a new president in 2027. Emmanuel Macron, who won two elections in 2017 and 2022, will no longer be able to run due to constitutional restrictions. He will resign as head of state on May 13 after the elections scheduled for April.

• The eight-plus months remaining before the first round will be a difficult time for Macron to hold power. Formally, he retains all the levers of influence that he has the right to use. But in fact, France, Europe, and the rest of the world are preparing for a change in the political landscape that will inevitably arise with the departure of the 48-year-old politician. His initiatives, plans and proposals will no longer meet with clear understanding and approval, as their fragility in the light of upcoming changes becomes obvious.

Macron's position might not be so precarious if he had a successor who would guarantee the continuation of his political course. But the closer the election date gets, the more obvious it becomes that France's political pendulum, frozen in the center, will begin to swing. The main candidates from the centrist forces sympathetic to Macron are his two former prime ministers, Gabriel Attal and Edouard Philippe. However, at the moment, both of them cannot even guarantee themselves entry into the second round, having so far no more than 20% support.

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• So far, the leader of the election race is Marine Le Pen, who polls give the support of just over a third of voters. Since the court allowed her to run in early July, her popularity has remained stable. Her left-wing counterweight is the socialist Jean-Luc Melenchon. If they come to power, both politicians will certainly begin dismantling Macron's political system and try to get rid of his legacy.

Influence on the "coalition of the willing"

• Macron's imminent departure is already affecting the state of the "coalition of the willing," an association of countries that have expressed a desire to participate in the deployment of peacekeeping forces on the territory of Ukraine. It was created in 2025, bypassing existing international structures for the informal coordination of military assistance, and therefore did not have a clear structure and specific obligations. The coalition relies heavily on the authority of leaders who have brought together 36 countries for joint action.

• Now it is this factor that has put the association at risk. At first, British Prime Minister Keir Starmer had to step down from the leadership of the coalition due to his resignation. After leaving office, he was replaced by Andy Burnham, and in the first days of his new post he showed that he was not interested in pursuing an overly active foreign policy and preferred to focus on the internal affairs of the kingdom. Although Burnham demonstrated his personal support for Ukraine by hosting its president, Volodymyr Zelensky, he never confirmed that he would continue to lead the "coalition of the willing."

• The second guarantor was Macron, but his term as president of France is coming to an end. It was he who initiated the convening of the coalition and most often chaired its meetings. And while Burnham may theoretically begin to devote more time to the Ukrainian issue as time passes, the next French president will almost certainly withdraw his active support and stop actively directing the work of the coalition. Both Le Pen and Melenchon advocate not only a reduction in military aid to Kiev, but also a radical revision of France's relations with NATO towards disintegration.

The disintegration of Macron's legacy

• The possible dissolution of the "coalition of the willing" is not the only consequence of Macron's imminent departure. This is reflected in other military aspects that are important for the rest of Europe. So, in June, it was announced that the development of the sixth-generation fighter, which was supposed to become the new leading European combat aircraft, had been discontinued. France was the initiator of the project and was going to develop it together with Germany, but at the same time expected to play a leading role. However, in the end, the two countries recognized that they could not reach a compromise and abandoned further developments. Such an expensive and long-term project as a new pan-European fighter required constant political support from all participants, and France currently cannot provide it.

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• In general, with the departure of Macron, the idea of European production of weapons for the rearmament of armies on the continent, which he promoted, is dissolving. With the coming to power of Donald Trump in the United States, the French leader suggested that Europe seek "strategic autonomy" from the American defense industry. His argument that Europe should provide itself with modern weapons has not been heard. The countries of NATO's eastern flank continue to purchase weapons from the United States, as Paris has not proposed a long-term and viable plan to reform the European military-industrial complex.

• In 2026, Macron also proposed that the European Union launch a new joint loan program to finance large investments in strategic sectors in order to close the gap between the United States and China. Macron wanted to use the COVID-19 pandemic recovery fund as a basis, which brought the entire EU a total debt of €750 billion. But the French president's proposal immediately met with strong resistance from Germany and a number of other pro-austerity countries. They understand that if Le Pen or Melenchon visit the Elysee Palace, the joint borrowing plan will be immediately disrupted.

Macron's calls to protect European industry from Chinese imports are also no longer being accepted. The French president proposed to rebuild the economy under the slogan "buy European" and take protectionist measures that would allow Europe to compete with China. Germany and other EU countries are not ready to start a trade war, which France itself will refuse to wage in the coming months, since neither Le Pen nor Melenchon share the idea of pan-European economic sovereignty, but prefer to protect exclusively French interests.